$RIVN · Parkev Tatevosian, CFA · 2026-11-05
重申买入 RIVN：R2 上市将 2026 年销量指引从近 60,000 辆上调至近 70,000 辆，自动驾驶有望带来高毛利收入；尽管美国电动车需求疲软且补贴削减，销售额仍从 2024 年的约 40 亿美元增长至 TTM 超 64 亿美元。营业利润率从 -130% 改善至 -53%；DCF 估值 15.50 美元较 13 美元股价高出 16%，按 DCF 及 1.675 倍远期销售额看略被低估。仍属高风险，预计未来数年自由现金流为负；他提醒，在经历此前多次假底之后，11 美元未必是底部；风险回报值得承担。
逐段跳播
几个月前，Rivian 推出了其最实惠的车型 R2，开局非常出色。成绩如此成功，以至于 Rivian 将 2026 年的销量预测上调至近 70,000 辆，高于此前近 60,000 辆的估计。
A few months ago, Rivian launched its most affordable model, the R2, and it had an excellent start. The results were so successful that Rivian raised its 2026 sales forecast to nearly 70,000 units sold, up from a previous estimate of nearly 60,000 units.
当然，我最近在 Rivian 股价约为每股 11 美元时将其股票评级上调至“买入”，所以看到公司在这次上调评级后这么快就取得成功，我很高兴。
Of course, I recently upgraded Rivian's stock rating to "buy" when it was around $11 per share, so I'm pleased to see the company succeed so soon after that upgrade.
但在公司向投资者公布季度更新之后，我是否仍然认为这是一个买入机会？我想在这里给出这个问题的答案。更准确地说，我是在 10 月 26 日上调该股评级的，当时 Rivian 股价约为 11 美元。
其价格达到 11.80 美元。最低价为 11.42 美元。此后，股价大幅上涨。今天已经超过 13 美元。
But do I still think it's a buying opportunity after the company announced its quarterly update to investors? I want the answer to this question here. I upgraded the stock, to be more precise, on October 26, when Rivian stock was trading at around $11.
Its price reached $11.80. Its lowest price was $11.42. Since then, the share price has risen significantly. Today it has exceeded $13.
然而，如果看得更长远一些，自 2026 年初以来，Rivian 的投资者此前就曾被欺骗过，当时他们以为 15 美元肯定是底部。股价从那个低点反弹，结果又在 4 月回落到每股 13 美元左右，投资者以为“13 美元肯定是底部”，然后股价又从那个水平反弹。
它曾达到每股 20 美元，之后又跌回 11 美元。而现在它又从这个低点反弹，投资者可能会有同样的感觉。11 美元肯定是底部，现在正在反弹，并将从这里上涨。
However, if we look at the longer term, since the beginning of 2026, Rivian investors have been deceived before when they thought that $15 was definitely the bottom. The stock bounced back from that low level, only to fall back to around $13 a share in April, and investors thought that "$13 is definitely the bottom," then the stock rebounded from that level.
It reached $20 per share before dropping back down to $11 . And now it is bouncing back from that low level again, and investors may feel the same way . Surely $11 was the bottom , and now it's bouncing back and will rise from here.
所以，我们不要过于安逸地相信这就是底部，也不要认定 Rivian 的股价会从这里上涨。
So, let's not get too comfortable believing that this was the bottom and that Rivian's stock will rise from here .
近期的成功是积极的。R2 的推出进展极其顺利，远好于我的预期，而自动驾驶汽车技术的发展可能在短期内成为高利润率收入的巨大驱动力。
The recent success has been positive. The launch of the R2 has been going extremely well, much better than I expected, and the development of self-driving car technology could be a huge driver of high-margin revenues in the near term.
从长期来看，Rivian 的销售额自 2024 年以来已大幅增长，当时其销售额约为 40 亿美元。过去十二个月已升至超过 64 亿美元。
In the long term, Rivian's sales have increased significantly since 2024 when it achieved sales of approximately $4 billion. It has risen to more than $6.4 billion over the past twelve months.
考虑到 Rivian 所面临的困难宏观经济背景，这令人印象深刻。美国电动汽车的行业需求没有像管理团队最初设想的那样增长。此外，现任政府取消电动汽车购买激励政策的政策变化，进一步降低了电动汽车的需求。
This is impressive considering the difficult macroeconomic background that Rivian has faced. Industry demand for electric vehicles in the United States has not risen as much as the management team initially thought.
Furthermore, policy changes by the current administration to eliminate incentives for purchasing electric vehicles have further reduced demand for them.
尽管存在这些经济逆风，Rivian 在推进其路线图以及与 Volkswagen 和 Uber 建立合作伙伴关系以扩大机会方面表现相当不错。
Despite those economic headwinds, Rivian has performed reasonably well in advancing its roadmap and establishing partnerships with Volkswagen and Uber to expand its opportunities.
目前，Rivian 的净利润仍在大量亏损，但这些亏损正在改善。营业利润率为 -53%，好于 2024 年的 -130%。
Currently, Rivian is still losing large amounts of money in its net profits, but these losses are improving. An operating profit margin of -53% is better than -130% in 2024.
如果他们继续提高这些车型的产量，并推出目标价 45,000 美元的较低价版 R2，我预计他们的营业利润率将在此基础上继续改善。
If they continue to increase production of these models and offer the lower-priced version of the R2, which targets $45,000, I expect their operating profit margin to continue to improve from there.
我将 Rivian 股票上调为买入机会的主要原因是开发那款较低价车型的进展，加上客户对这些车型的接受度和销量增长，以及估值。
The main reason I upgraded Rivian stock as a buy opportunity is the progress in developing that lower-priced model, coupled with customer adoption of these models and increased sales, as well as the valuation.
请记住，Rivian 的股价较历史最高点下跌了约 90%。多年来，我一直警告投资者避开 Rivian，说现在下结论还为时过早，而且鉴于公司的前景，估值过于昂贵。但在 10 月下旬，当我将评级上调至买入时，情况看起来更具吸引力了。
Remember that Rivian's stock is down about 90% from its all-time high. For years , I have been warning investors to avoid Rivian, that it is still too early to say, and that the valuation was too expensive given the company's prospects .
But in late October, when I upgraded the rating to buy, the situation looked more attractive .
目前，该股的远期市销率为 1.675，对于一家在极具挑战性的宏观经济背景下有效开展业务的公司来说，这看起来仍然是一个有吸引力的机会。
Currently, the stock is trading at a price-to-forward ratio of 1.675, which still looks like an attractive opportunity for a company that is conducting its business effectively amid a very challenging macroeconomic background .
因此，今天我更新了对 Rivian 贴现现金流的评估，并上调了我预计公司从今天到非常长期内将产生的自由现金流估计，原因是 R2 的早期成功及其自动驾驶技术的成功。
Therefore, today I also updated my assessment of Rivian's discounted cash flows, and raised my estimates of the free cash flow I expect the company to generate between today and the very long term due to its early success with R2 and the success of its self-driving technology.
我现在计算得出公司价值为 15.50 美元。这比当前市场价格 13 美元高出 16%。因此，无论用贴现现金流还是远期市销率来衡量，在我看来它都略微被低估。
I now calculate that the company is worth $15.50. This is 16% higher than the current market price of $13. Therefore, it seems slightly undervalued to me whether you measure it using discounted cash flows or the price-to-forward sales ratio .
因此，今天我因 Rivian 的成功重申了对该股的买入评级。它是你能买入的风险较高的股票之一，预计未来几年将产生负自由现金流。但我认为，对这家电动汽车公司来说，风险回报是值得的。
Therefore, today I reaffirmed my buy rating on Rivian stock due to its success. It is one of the higher-risk stocks you can buy, and is expected to generate negative free cash flow for a few years.
But I think the return on risk is worth it for this electric vehicle company.
这个频道对 $RIVN 的历次判断
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 在这只股票上共 4 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。