RKLB 的看多逻辑依赖于 Neutron 的成功；若缺乏这一成功，该股在当前价位不值得持有，尽管收购 Iridium 和太空系统业务的增长是积极因素。
逐段跳播
是的，我想再次确认我刚才说过的话，以及我关于 Virgin 所说的，还有我稍后会就 Rocket Lab 所说的。我相信，该股自 5 月的高点以来已经下跌了约 65%。当然，他们利用了高股价来筹集资金。
所以，每当我们在太空板块看到这些名字时——不只是太空板块，其他行业也有一些公司或许在利用这种“meme”局面，或者利用股价已经大幅上涨这一事实，是的，来缓解压力，但这有助于加快工作进度。
因为如果没有非常高的股价，这本来会让他们付出很大代价。
Yes, and I mean, just to confirm what I said, and what I said about Virgin, and what I will say about Rocket Lab shortly. The stock has fallen, I believe, by about 65% since its highs in May.
They have, of course, taken advantage of the high share price to raise funds. So, again, whenever we see these names in the space sector, and not just space, there are some other companies in different industries that are perhaps using the "meme" situation, or the fact that the stock has gone up a lot, yes, to mitigate, but this helps to speed up the work.
Because without a very high share price, it would have cost them a lot.
现在，我的下一家公司当然是“Rocket Lab”。Rocket Lab 也是一样。Rocket Lab 的股价今年早些时候、5 月底时大约在 140 美元左右，当时市场预期 SpaceX 会上市，或者这些太空板块的名字会上涨，然后它们全都暴跌了约 50%、60% 或 65%。
而现在，Rocket Lab 是我们今天要覆盖的最大名字，我认为。它的市值约为 470 亿美元。上一季度营收达到 2.34 亿美元，同比增长 62%。第三季度指引预计又是一个创纪录的季度，营收在 2.5 亿美元至 2.65 亿美元之间，积压合同已达到 23.6 亿美元。这代表着 137% 的增长。按年计算。
Now, my next company is, of course, "Rocket Lab". And Rocket Lab, the same thing. Rocket Lab's stock was trading at around $140 or so earlier this year at the end of May, with expectations of SpaceX going public or these names rising in the space sector, and then they all collapsed by about 50%, 60% or 65%.
And now, Rocket Lab is the biggest name, I think, that we'll be covering today. It is worth approximately $47 billion. Revenue in the last quarter reached $234 million, a 62% increase year-over-year.
Third-quarter guidance is expected to be another record quarter of between $250 million and $265 million, and backlogged contracts have reached $2.36 billion. This represents an increase of 137%. On an annual basis.
现在，关于 Rocket Lab 的一点是，很多人把它看作“哦，Rocket Lab 是一家火箭公司”，认为它的主要工作只是发射工作。尽管大部分注意力都集中在 Electron 火箭的发射上，我们正接近这款小型火箭的第 100 次发射。
公司积压订单的 60% 是太空系统，40% 是发射。在未来几年，是的，即使“Neutron”的节奏加快——我们稍后会谈到“Neutron”——发射业务预计将占 Rocket Lab 总业务的比例越来越小。
这很重要。再次强调，把火箭发射到太空极其复杂。没有多少公司能做到这一点是有原因的。但如果你在这方面取得成功，如果你拥有发射、太空系统、通信网络、卫星制造，以及一切与太空应用相关的东西，那么你将处于非常有利的位置。
Now, the thing about Rocket Lab is that a lot of people see it as "Oh, Rocket Lab is a rocket company." And that the majority of her work is just launch work. Although most of the attention is focused on the Electron rocket launches, we are approaching the 100th launch of this small rocket. 60% of the company's backlog is space systems, and 40% is launches.
In the coming years, yes, even with the increased pace of "Neutron"—we'll talk about "Neutron" shortly—launch operations are expected to make up a smaller and smaller percentage of Rocket Lab's total business.
This is important. Again, launching rockets into space is extremely complicated. There's a reason why not many companies do that. But if you succeed in that, and if you have the launches, space systems, communication networks, satellite manufacturing, and everything related to space applications, then you will be in a very good position.
现在，当然，每当我们谈到 Rocket Lab 时，人们会自动把它与 SpaceX 比较，尽管我认为目前根本无法将它们相提并论。是的，SpaceX 发射的火箭要大得多。Starship 火箭，最大的火箭
Now, of course, whenever we talk about Rocket Lab, people automatically compare it to SpaceX, although I don't think you can compare them at all at the moment. Yes, SpaceX launches much larger rockets. The Starship rocket, the largest rocket
回到“Rocket Lab”，他们目前拥有“Electron”火箭，这是一款小型火箭。它无法与“Falcon 9”火箭相比。因此，其价格，即每次发射的平均价格，与 Falcon 9 相比，或与“Neutron”可能达到的水平相比，都非常小。
Returning to "Rocket Lab," they currently have the "Electron" rocket, which is a small rocket. Well, it cannot be compared to the "Falcon 9" rocket. Therefore, the price, the average price per launch, is very small compared to what the Falcon 9 is or compared to what the Neutron might be.
当 Neutron 发射时，我们作为 Rocket Lab 的股东知道，发射已被反复推迟，拖延得太久了。这对股价来说并不好，甚至可以说对业务势头也不好。
When Neutron is launched, we as shareholders in Rocket Lab know that the launch has been postponed repeatedly, it has been delayed for too long. Which is, well, not good for the stock price, and not even good for business momentum, so to speak.
但可以这样想：当他们觉得可以放心地发布“neutron”时，对我来说这意味着他们有信心这次测试将为他们提供所有必要的数据。
But think of it this way: when they feel comfortable releasing a "neutron," it means to me that they are confident the test will provide them with all the necessary data.
现在，为什么这很重要？这很重要，因为你希望尽快从一次测试走向一次实际飞行，然后走向两次、三次、五次、十次、二十次飞行，等等。如果你的首次试飞失败，你无论如何都会损失好几个月的时间去争取再次发射的许可。
那么谁又能保证第二次发射会成功呢？因此，推迟发射以确保首次发射尽可能成功，对我来说非常好，因为这可能意味着我们可以在未来两年加快 Neutron 的发射节奏，而这是我在这个投资论点中最看重的部分。
Now, why is this important? Well, it's important because you want to go from one test to an actual trip, and then to two, three, five, ten, twenty trips, and so on, as quickly as possible.
If your first test flight fails, you will lose many months anyway trying to get permission to launch again. Then who can guarantee that the second launch will be successful? Therefore, delaying the launch to ensure that the first launch will be as successful as possible is very good to me, because it may mean that we can accelerate the pace of Neutron launches over the next two years, and that is the most important part for me in this thesis.
如果 Neutron 不成功，我认为 Rocket Lab 在目前这些价格下，尤其是在当前水平上，不会是一家值得拥有的好企业。
If Neutron doesn't succeed, I don't think Rocket Lab would be a very good business to own at these prices, especially at its current levels.
Electron 火箭仍然不错，太空系统也仍然表现良好，但如果你想让估值更接近 500 亿美元，甚至未来超过 1000 亿美元，那么你需要一个 Falcon 9 的竞争对手，你需要 Neutron 的成功。
The Electron rocket is still good, and space systems are still doing well, but if you want the value to get closer to $50, and perhaps in the future exceed $100 billion, then you need a competitor to Falcon 9, you need a Neutron success.
而最近，他们又做了一次，我们谈论的是太空公司，我们谈论的是收购。最近，他们完成了一笔非常大的收购，收购了“Iridium”公司。而现在，它的价值为 80 亿美元。
And now, recently, they have done it again, and we are talking about space companies, we are talking about acquisitions. Recently, they made a very large acquisition of the company "Iridium". And now, it is worth $8 billion.
是的，这是一笔非常大的收购。他们需要时间来整合一切。
Yes, it is a very large acquisition. It will take time for them to integrate everything.
所以，有了 Iridium，他们现在可以自己建造并发射下一代 Iridium 星座，把所有支出都留在公司内部，而不是付钱给 Blue Origin 或 SpaceX 这样的公司，因此你的利润率会越来越好。
So, with Iridium, they can now build and launch the next Iridium constellation themselves, keeping all the spending within the company instead of paying companies like Blue Origin or SpaceX, and thus your profit margins get better and better.
这笔交易预计大约在 2027 年中至年底完成。在那之前，很多事情都可能发生。我们希望到那时我们已经有一次“Neutron”火箭的发射。但我真心相信这对公司来说是一个重大的游戏规则改变者。
This deal is expected to close roughly in the middle to end of 2027. Until then, a lot of things can happen. We hope that by that time we will have a launch of the "Neutron" rocket.
But I truly believe this is a major game-changer for the company.
这家公司确实在努力成为你所有太空需求的一站式商店。你需要把东西发射到太空，我们在这里为你服务。太空系统所需的卫星，我们在这里为你服务。网络，我们将在来年及以后满足你的需求。当然，他们还能拿到政府合同，当你和 SpaceX 玩同样的游戏，但也许是一家小得多的公司时，我认为天空真的是极限。
The company is really trying to be the one-stop shop for all your space needs. You need to launch something into space, we're here for you. Satellites for space systems, we are here for you.
Networks, we will meet your needs in the coming year and beyond. Of course, there are also government contracts they can get, and when you play the same game as SpaceX, but perhaps as a much smaller company, I think the sky's really the limit.
这是一个刻意的双关，也许在这里太空才是极限，但 Rocket Lab 是一个我关注多年的伟大名字。他们如何从一家非常、非常、非常小的太空公司转变为我现在可以说接近发射业务领域第二大参与者的公司。
It's a deliberate pun, and perhaps space is the limit here, but Rocket Lab is a great name that I've been following for many years. How they've transformed from a very, very, very small space company into what I can now say is close to being the second player in the field of launch operations.
他们正凭借 Electron 火箭取得伟大成就，但如果 Neutron 成功，凭借 Neutron 他们将变得大得多。
They are achieving great things with the Electron rocket, but with the Neutron they will be much bigger if the Neutron succeeds.
是的，我的意思是他绝对是这个领域最著名的名字之一。我相信 Iridium 交易将是一个非常关键的关键。我的意思是，这意味着他们获得了宝贵的、耐候性强的“L 波段”。这确实让公司处于更有利的位置，能够与 SpaceX 的 Starlink 竞争。
如你所知，他们拥有来自商业和政府部门的 250 万用户。这促进了经常性现金流。我认为这将是业务的一个非常关键的关键。
Yes, I mean he is definitely one of the most famous names in this field. I believe the Iridium deal will be a very important key. I mean, it means they get a valuable "L-band" that is weather-resistant.
This really puts the company in a better position to compete with SpaceX's Starlink. As you know, they have 2.5 million subscribers from the commercial and government sectors. This promotes recurring cash flow.
I think it will be a very important key to the business.
现在，就像我今天谈到的另一个名字 Planet Labs 一样，鉴于有如此多的关注和资本流入极少数太空股票，比如 Rocket Lab 和 SpaceX，我们已经看到一些资金从其中一些名字中撤出。所以，这也加剧了我们在那里看到的一些波动。
Now, much like the other name I talked about today, Planet Labs, and given that there is so much attention and capital flowing into a very small number of space stocks such as Rocket Lab and SpaceX, we have seen some shift away from some of these names.
So, this also fuels some of the volatility we've seen there.
观察点
这个频道对 $RKLB 的历次判断
The Motley Fool 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。