RKLB 将 Neutron 推迟至 2027 年，股价下跌 10%，但这并非买入机会：在 53 美元，其市销率为远期销售额的 23.5 倍，而他给出的公允价值约为 22 美元，因此风险回报不具吸引力，且相对于上行空间风险过高。鉴于其拥有 23 亿美元现金，此次推迟并非生存性问题，但他仍在等待更好的入场点。
逐段跳播
今天我们收到了对 Rocket Lab 股票投资者来说不太好的消息，公司再次将 Neutron 火箭的发射推迟到了2027年。
Today we received some unfortunate news for Rocket Lab stock investors as the company has postponed the launch of its Neutron rocket once again to 2027.
要知道，Neutron 火箭的发射此前已经多次推迟，而今天的推迟导致股价一度下跌多达14%，之后才有所回升。在录制这段视频时，它现在的交易价格大约下跌了10%。
Remember that this Neutron rocket launch has been postponed several times before, and today's postponement caused the stock price to drop by as much as 14% before it recovered.
It is now trading down by approximately 10% at the time of recording this video.
当然，几个月乃至几年来，我一直提醒投资者，Rocket Lab 是一只估值过高的股票，并不是因为这条具体消息，而是因为它整体上估值过高，尤其是今年早些时候，SpaceX 的 IPO 引发了市场对太空股的一阵狂热。
Of course, I have been warning investors for months and years now about Rocket Lab as an overvalued stock, not because of this news specifically, but because it is generally overvalued, especially earlier this year when there was a euphoria over space stocks as a result of SpaceX’s IPO.
但最近的这轮下跌，是否终于让 Rocket Lab 股票成为一个买入机会？
But does this recent decline finally make Rocket Lab stock a buying opportunity?
这家太空公司已将其 Neutron 火箭——也就是其中型载荷可重复使用火箭——的首次发射推迟到了2027年。他们原本的目标是在2026年第四季度进行首飞，但 CEO Peter Beck 将这次最新的推迟归因于火箭第一级前部燃料穹顶的制造问题。
So, the space company has postponed the first launch of its Neutron rocket, its medium-payload reusable rocket, to 2027. They had been targeting the fourth quarter of 2026 for the debut, but CEO Peter Beck attributed this latest delay to manufacturing problems with the forward fuel dome in the rocket's first stage.
他补充说，这并不一定意味着该穹顶会在飞行中失效，但他们希望保持谨慎，推迟到确信有足够的安全余量、能够成功发射为止，而不是仅仅因为这是原定目标就仓促发射。
He added that this does not necessarily mean the dome will fail in flight, but they want to be cautious and postpone until they are sure there is a sufficient safety margin for a successful launch, rather than rushing the launch just because it was their planned objective.
所以，这是他们与 SpaceX 的 Falcon 9 火箭竞争的产品，而这次发射此前已经排定却又被推迟。他们在2021年公布了这款火箭，最初的目标首飞年份是2024年，之后推迟到2025年年中，然后又推迟到2026年。今年1月，第一级贮箱在测试中破裂。
So, this is their competition against SpaceX's Falcon 9 rocket, and this launch was previously scheduled but delayed. They unveiled the rocket in 2021 and 2024 was the initial target year for the flight, then they moved it to mid-2025, and then to 2026.
The first-stage tank ruptured during testing in January.
因此，公司的目标发射日期已经经历了多次推迟和挫折，对于这些困难，你可以谅解这家公司。这确实是火箭科学，并不容易。
Therefore, there have been several delays and setbacks to the company's target launch date, and you can forgive the company for these difficulties. This is literally rocket science. It's not easy.
因此，开发这类技术所需的研发工作具有高度不确定性，所以时间表仅仅是目标而已。这些只是目标。投资者不应把它们视为有保证或一定会实现的事情。
Therefore, the research and development efforts needed to develop this type of technology are highly uncertain, so timelines are merely targets. These are goals. Investors should not consider them as guaranteed or certain to happen.
因此，Rocket Lab 的股价在今天下跌之后，自年初以来已累计下跌超过23%。相比 SpaceX IPO 期间那些狂热时刻——当时 Rocket Lab 股价飙升至150美元——它已经下跌了约三分之二，也就是66%。
Therefore, Rocket Lab's stock fell after today's decline of more than 23% since the beginning of the year. It is down by about two-thirds, or 66%, from those moments of euphoria during SpaceX's IPO when Rocket Lab's stock soared to $150.
正如我以前所做的那样，我已多次警告投资者不要被那种狂热冲昏头脑。我以前见过这种情况。我要引用电视剧《鱿鱼游戏》里的话，具体来说是第二季主角说的那句：“我以前玩过这些游戏。”换句话说，我们以前经历过这些。
As I have done before, I have warned investors many times against getting carried away by that euphoria. I've seen this before. I will quote from the TV series "The Squid Game," specifically the main character in the second season when he says: "I've played these games before." In other words, we've been through this before.
那些把公司股价推至天文数字的狂热、热情、希望和兴奋时刻，对于在这些高点买入的投资者来说，通常不会有好结局。你可以看看最近的太空股狂热，再往前是量子计算股狂热，再往前是迷因股狂热，再往前是不可替代代币（NFT），我们可以一直回溯历史，观察投资者过度热情把股价推至不切实际的高位、随后崩盘的时刻，这给投资者造成了巨大损失，因为他们被那些时刻裹挟了。
Those moments of euphoria, enthusiasm, hope, and excitement that drive company stocks to astronomical levels do not usually end well for investors who buy at those peaks. You can look at the recent space stock frenzy, and before that the quantum computing stock frenzy, and before that the meme stock frenzy, and before that the non-fungible tokens (NFTs), and we can go on through history observing moments of excessive enthusiasm from investors that drove stocks to unrealistically high levels, and then crashed, causing investors huge losses because they were swept along by those moments.
所以，我希望你在那些时刻看了我的视频，避免了在那些创纪录的高位买入 Rocket Lab 股票。
So, I hope you were watching my videos during those moments, and avoided buying Rocket Lab stock at those record levels.
总体而言，这是世界上最具创新性的公司之一，其资产负债表状况极佳。他们拥有超过23亿美元的现金和短期投资。他们最近一直在通过收购进行扩张。他们正在等待一项收购交易最终敲定，但他们有足够的流动性支撑自己直到实现下一个里程碑。
Overall, this is one of the most innovative companies in the world, and its balance sheet is in excellent condition. They have over $2.3 billion in cash and short-term investments.
They have been expanding through acquisitions recently. They are waiting for an acquisition deal to be finalized, but they have enough liquidity to support them until they reach the next milestone.
因此，Neutron 发射推迟并不代表公司走到尽头。这只是一次推迟。我们应该这样看待它。这个项目此前就被推迟过。这是一项难以掌控的技术。可能需要更长一点时间。发射可能会再次推迟，但公司预算中有充足的流动性来承受进一步的推迟。
它很可能能够达到下一个里程碑。不是100%，但它大概率有足够的资金达到那个里程碑。
Therefore, the delay in launching "Neutron" is not an indication of the end of the company. It's just a delay. This is how we should look at it. The project has been postponed before.
It is a technology that is difficult to control. It might take a little longer. The launch may be delayed again, but the company has sufficient liquidity in its budget to withstand further delays.
It is very likely that you will be able to reach the next milestone. Not 100%, but she probably has enough capital to reach that milestone.
所以，该股目前的远期市销率为23.5倍，大致是进入2026年时的估值水平。我计算出的公司公允价值约为每股22美元，而即便在今天跌至53美元之后，这个价格看起来仍然非常昂贵。
So, the stock is now trading at a forward price-to-sales multiple of 23.5, which is roughly the valuation it was trading at going into 2026. I calculated the fair value of the company at around $22 per share, and even after today's drop to $53, the price still looks very expensive.
这是那种高风险、高回报的机会之一，我并不反对参与这类机会。我把其中几家公司标记为买入机会，但我正在等待合适的时机。
This is one of those high-risk, high-reward opportunities, and I am not against entering into such opportunities. I have several of these companies flagged as buying opportunities, but I'm waiting for the right moment.
至于 Rocket Lab，我认为它的价格还不够有吸引力，不足以让投资者去承担风险，因为风险回报比仍然不划算；持有这只股票承担的风险太大了。它是市场上最危险的股票之一。因此，你必须确保有足够的上行空间来补偿你所承担的风险。
As for Rocket Lab, I don't think its price is attractive enough for investors to take the risk, because the risk-to-reward ratio is still not appealing; you are taking too much risk with this stock.
It is one of the most dangerous stocks in the market. Therefore, you must ensure that there is sufficient upside potential to compensate you for the risk you are taking.
正如我在9月2日上一次更新中提到的，我认为这不是买入机会。如果你有兴趣买入这只股票，你会等到更好的入场价格再买。
As I mentioned previously in the last update on September 2, I don't think this is a buying opportunity. If you were interested in buying this stock, you would have waited for a better entry price before doing so.
这个频道对 $RKLB 的历次判断
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 在这只股票上共 2 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。