$RKLB · Schwab Network · 2026-10-26

You have Rocket Lab here, Shay, as your last resort, and I mean, it really peaked with SpaceX's IPO in June, and has since declined along with many other names in the space economy sector , but the Neutron launch delay has taken a big hit to the stock price. So, what is your view of Rocket Lab?

Yes, I think Rocket Lab is experiencing a kind of perfect storm right now , having benefited greatly from the glamour factor associated with SpaceX's IPO during the first six months of this year.

If you work in the space industry, you simply outperform the market. But now that SpaceX is public, it's clear everyone sold off shares of companies associated with the sector to move toward the leading company, and then a new delay for Neutron until 2027 quickly followed.

I'm disappointed by this delay because Neutron was supposed to be one of the major catalysts this year, but I think it's important to put things in perspective, because Falcon 9 , SpaceX's flagship product, is delayed by about 3 years, while Falcon Heavy is delayed by about 5 years.

However, both eventually became highly successful launch vehicles. So imagine if you had sold your SpaceX shares back then when Falcon 9 was 3 years behind. You would have missed the opportunity to achieve a performance that has increased 50 times since then .

So I think this doesn't mean that Rocket Lab will be a failure because of the Neutron delay, but it just reminds us how difficult the space industry is. What reassures me is that Rocket Lab has identified the manufacturing problem that led to this latest delay, and it is something that can be easily fixed.

It's not a real technical problem . Meanwhile, the progress of the rest of the missile components did not stop. The second phase of testing is being set up at Wallops Island, and I think you'll see Rocket Lab mimicking much of what SpaceX is doing in its strategy through its recent acquisition of Iridium, where it gains a connectivity layer in the space economy to integrate it vertically into its business.

2.7 million subscribers, $900 million in revenue , and $500 million in EBITDA will all be a gradual addition to Rocket Lab's success story. So right now , the 70% drop we 've seen in the stock, I think, is a combination of excessive optimism about SpaceX's IPO, plus an unfortunate short-term delay.

Certainly, if you are optimistic about the space economy and think it will become a multi-billion-billion economy , this is the second best way to bet on it, and it's perfectly fine if SpaceX takes over , as you saw what happened between Nvidia and AMD.

Nvidia has a 95% market share, while AMD has less than 10%, yet it is a trillion-dollar company. So I think there are a lot of opportunities available to Rocket Lab, and if you are a long-term investor, take advantage of short-term fluctuations because working in space is difficult.

When we look at the "Rocket Lab" diagram, I mean it looks like a takeoff, a rocket launch that just came back to Earth. Take us through what you see, the technical setup.

Yes, you clearly see a collapse, but there may have been a consolidation of prices over the past week and a half , and buyers may have tried to intervene here as well. This stock has clearly experienced a lot of volatility.

If we look at the daily chart for a year, at this time last year, around mid-November, we actually saw the stock trading around its 200-day moving average. There was sort of a double bottom before we started to see the stock move slightly upwards.

But the stock tends to trend for 3 to 4 months, then consolidates, then tries again to trend upwards. This is exactly what we have seen over the past year or so.

We have seen a strong upward movement here in May of this year. Once again, there was some kind of explosive peak pattern . You have this "Hangman" candle that was green. The next candle that appeared at those high levels was almost a " Doji" type.

And then I saw a breakdown that formed lower peaks, and unfortunately, lower troughs.

Now, we already had a resistance line if you connect the peaks from that crash , but what also happened was that the stock consolidated. This resistance level can now act as a support zone. That's what we're focusing on now.

You also have a gap between about $56 and about $60 that may also be tested upwards before reaching the 20- day and 50-day moving averages here.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI ) is making higher lows. Again, this is the kind of trend you would like to see before starting a position in a particular stock if you are bullish.

The MACD indicator has started to bend slightly. The 12-day exponential moving average (EMA) may exceed its 26-day counterpart. This does not mean that the stock will return to an upward trend in the long term, but it does mean that some buyers may enter , and that a reversal of the main trend is possible.

Unfortunately, the 200-day moving average, which had been acting as a support zone and which I had identified, will now not act as a resistance zone.

Last week, once again, a candle of confusion appeared, which was a green candle. We have witnessed a battle between optimists and pessimists, and it is where the volume profile shows a significant amount of trading that has risen somewhat at these current levels.

So, if we get a bounce to the upside, the 20-week moving average is what you should really focus on. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) does not look very good. The MACD indicator doesn't look very good.

You are essentially looking for a bounce back at least to the 71-77 level for this stock. Anything beyond that in the next few weeks, or even months, would be an added bonus, and you might find more buyers trying to get in once the stock starts to gain more momentum.

And one last thing I want to emphasize is that every stock Josh and I talked about today is also a momentum stock. So, once it starts to gain a little momentum, many individuals will start following these stocks, and that's what you need here.

You need a strong support level, and as you know, buyers may step in after key resistance zones are broken .

Well, Niemann, if we can get to the $75 level, and if we break through that resistance zone , we'll still be almost 100% below the June highs we saw with the SpaceX surge .