$RKLB · Schwab Network · 2026-11-09
Rocket Lab 处于非常有利的位置：其稳定的发射节奏是 ULA 和 Blue Origin 所不具备的真正优势，因为市场需要一个可行的 SpaceX 竞争对手，而与 Iridium 的交易旨在直接竞争。风险依然存在——75 次 Electron 发射才相当于一次 Falcon 9 的载荷，Neutron 已延迟，技术障碍仍存；维持发射节奏是 2027 年叙事的关键。
逐段跳播
所以现在看来，其他发射运营商，比如 Rocket Lab，正试图用他们的 Electron 火箭来填补这一空白。
So now it appears that other launch operators, like Rocket Lab, are trying to fill this gap with their Electron rockets.
有 AST Space Mobile，还有 Lunar Fly、PL。SpaceX 上涨了5%，Rocket Labs 上涨了9%，但这四家公司中有几家的股价涨幅最高达到13%。
There is AST Space Mobile, as well as Lunar Fly, PL. SpaceX rose 5%, Rocket Labs 9%, but shares of four of these companies rose by up to 13%.
在谈论 Rocket Lab 和 AST Space Mobile 之前，我想先讨论一下 SpaceX 及其未来前景。
Before talking about Rocket Lab and AST Space Mobile, I want to discuss SpaceX and its future prospects.
你提到了 Starlink 和 Starship。你认为 SpaceX 将走向何方？它是在引领行业吗？它目前的价格是140美元。你说上市的 SpaceX 树立了一个标准。这是什么意思？
You mentioned Starlink and Starship. Where do you think SpaceX is going ? Is it leading the industry ? Its current price is $140. You said public SpaceX sets a standard. What does this mean?
航天行业的其他公司，比如正寻求收购 Iridium 的 Rocket Lab，正试图把运载火箭公司和卫星公司合并起来。
other companies in the space industry , such as Rocket Lab, which is looking to buy Iridium , are trying to combine the launcher and satellite companies.
现在我们来谈谈 Rocket Lab。虽然它在6个月内下跌了50%，但现在已经略有回升。这些股票值得买入吗？我认为 Rocket Lab 的关键在于，他们的每一枚 Electron 火箭——我们都能看到它漂亮的照片——他们已经发射了大约100枚火箭。他们本月将发射第100枚火箭。
Now let's talk about Rocket Lab. So, although it decreased by 50 percent in 6 months, it has now increased slightly. Are these stocks worth buying? I think the main thing about Rocket Lab is that each of their Electron rockets, we see great pictures of it, and they've launched about 100 rockets.
They are launching their 100th rocket this month.
是的，它们相当令人印象深刻，但你需要发射75枚这样的火箭，才能把与一枚 Falcon 9 火箭相同载荷的货物送入太空。
Yes, they're pretty impressive, but you'd have to launch 75 of them to send the same payload into space as a single Falcon 9 rocket.
所以它们主要是为小型卫星提供商设计的，这样他们就能把自己的载荷送入轨道，而不必等待 Blue Origin 或 SpaceX 的大型拼单发射。
So they are primarily designed for small satellite providers , so they can send their payloads into orbit without having to wait for a big rideshare launch from Blue Origin or SpaceX.
现在 Rocket Lab 的 Neutron 火箭即将推出，它与 Falcon 9 相对更匹配。关键在于它被推迟了，而且在此之前还有一次发射。所以我们有机会看到那枚火箭研发中所有努力的成果体现。
Now Rocket Lab's Neutron rocket is coming, which is relatively more compatible with the Falcon 9. The main thing is that it is delayed and there is a launch before it. So we will have the opportunity to see the reflection of all the efforts in the development of that rocket.
所以，是的，我认为 Rocket Lab，尤其是通过收购 Iridium，正试图把自己确立为一个直接竞争对手。还有很多要看。他们还需要克服一些重大的技术障碍。
So , yes, I think Rocket Lab, especially with the Iridium acquisition, is trying to establish itself as a direct competitor. There is still much to see. There are some major technical hurdles they need to overcome.
好消息是，他们有一套规律的发射流程，而业内许多其他参与者都没有，无论是 United Launch Alliance 还是 Blue Origin。我认为维持这种发射节奏将是2027年故事的重要部分。
The good news is that they have a regular launch process, which many other players in the industry don't have, be it United Launch Alliance or Blue Origin. And I think maintaining that launch is going to be a big part of the story in 2027.
我知道你不能以 Hyperframe Research 的名义给出股票推荐，但当我们考虑领导力特质时——Elon Musk 和 SpaceX，以及我们谈到的另外两家，Rocket Lab 和 AST SpaceMobile——大家是不是都在进入一笔交易？
I know you can't give stock recommendations from Hyperframe Research, but when we think about leadership qualities—Elon Musk and SpaceX and the other two we talked about, Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile—is everyone getting into a deal ?
所以，那些行动更快的公司，比如在发射方面领先的 Rocket Lab，或在卫星方面领先的 AST Spacemobile，将更有能力在这个新的航天市场中生存下来，因为我们确实需要一个能与 SpaceX 匹敌的竞争对手。
So, those who are moving faster , like Rocket Lab in terms of launches or AST Spacemobile in terms of satellites , will be more able to survive in this new space market , because we really need a worthy competitor to SpaceX.
虽然 SpaceX 79%的发射已被预订用于他们自己接下来的工作，但剩余的发射是他们已经承诺给政府或 NASA 的。所以我认为拥有一个可行的发射业务非常重要，而我认为这些公司，尤其是 Rocket Lab，处于非常有利的位置。
And while 79% of SpaceX's launches are booked for their own upcoming work , the remaining launches are ones they have already committed to the government or NASA. So I think it's very important to have a viable launch business and I think these companies, especially Rocket Lab, are in a very good position.
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这个频道对 $RKLB 的历次判断
Schwab Network 在这只股票上共 7 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。