$SAT · Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D. · 2026-11-03
EchoStar 的传统业务正在下滑，现金流糟糕；UBS 给出的分部估值目标价 156 对 90，取决于其 SpaceX 持股。说话者认为 SpaceX 的价值将归零，剔除 SpaceX 后 EchoStar 价值不超过数十亿美元，而当前交易价更高，因此风险较大——不过看好 SpaceX 的人可以在这里以更低价格买入。
逐段跳播
说到 AI 押注，有一个涉及 SpaceX 和 EchoStar 的价值投资，这两家都是卫星、电视之类的老业务，全都在走下坡路，看起来状况很糟。
Speaking of AI bets, there is a value investment involving SpaceX and EchoStar, which are older businesses like satellites, television, and others, all of which are in decline and look to be in bad shape.
然后股价从 25 涨到 90，甚至更高到 140，现在又跌回了 90。发生了什么？所有业务都在下滑，但你看无线通信这块，他们有什么？他们拥有无线电频谱。现金流很差，一切看起来都很糟。
Then the share price rose from 25 to 90, and even higher to 140, and then it has now dropped to 90. What happened? Well, all businesses are in decline , but when you look at wireless communications, what do they have?
They own the radio spectrum. The cash flow is bad, and everything looks bad.
不过，他们成功把一部分频谱以 230 亿美元卖给了 AT&T。那笔交易消除了公司的全部债务。随后他们宣布出售频谱，并与 SpaceX 达成商业协议。现金流动性，再加上他们持有 SpaceX 2% 的股份，这些股份是按分拆后的调整股价买入的，现在这个价格是 42。
所以，这家公司以 42 的价格买入了 SpaceX 2% 的股份。现在 SpaceX 的股价略高一些，是 150。因此，从这个角度看是有价值的。
However, they were able to sell part of their spectrum to AT&T for $23 billion. That deal eliminated all of the company's debt. They then announced the sale of the frequency spectrum and a commercial agreement with SpaceX.
Cash liquidity, in addition to the fact that they own 2% of SpaceX, which they bought at the adjusted share price after the split, which is now 42. So, this company bought 2% of SpaceX at 42.
Now, the SpaceX share price is slightly higher at 150. Therefore, there is value from this perspective.
瑞银因分部估值之和上调了该股评级，那里的分析师只是做了计算。我们有什么？SpaceX 的股份、价值 110 亿美元的剩余频谱，以及几十亿美元的传统业务价值，在缴纳资本利得税、扣除负债和各项扣减之后，得出的目标价是 156，而现价是 90，这意味着约 60% 的大幅上涨，而且你还持有 SpaceX 的股份。
UBS raised the stock rating due to the sum value of the parts, where the analyst there simply does the calculation. What do we have? A stake in SpaceX, $11 billion worth of remaining spectrum, and a few billion in value of legacy business, and after paying capital gains taxes, liabilities and deductions, you arrive at a target price of 156 compared to 90, which represents a substantial increase of 60%, and you own a stake in SpaceX.
SpaceX 拆了股，所以以 42.40 的价格买入这只股票，或者拿到它。所以，对 SpaceX 的投资者来说，这非常有意思。这里有一个直观的解释，会让你说：“Sven，这是一笔很棒的价值投资，买它。”
不过在我看来，SpaceX 的价值未来会归零。所以，如果把 SpaceX 排除在外，它值不了几十亿美元，可它的交易价格却更高。所以这有风险，但如果你相信 SpaceX，你可以在这里以更低的价格买到它。
Well, SpaceX split its stock, so buy the stock at 42.40 or get it. So, for SpaceX investors, this is very interesting. Here's a visual explanation that will make you say, "Sven, this is a great value investment, buy it."
Well, in my opinion, SpaceX's value will become zero in the future. So, if you exclude SpaceX from here, it's worth no more than a few billion, yet it's trading at a higher price.
So it's risky, but if you believe in SpaceX, you can get it cheaper here.