SB Energy 的 IPO 是一个负面案例：没有已投入运营的数据中心，未能实现 2025 年达到 10GW 的目标，2026 年上半年在计入每年 2.65 亿美元利息之前就已出现经营亏损，得克萨斯州数据中心进度严重落后；依靠债务融资，投资者拒绝其 500 亿美元的估值。
逐段跳播
上个月，SP Energy 正式提交了首次公开募股（IPO）申请，寻求以最高500亿美元的估值融资50亿美元。
Last month, SP Energy officially filed for an initial public offering (IPO) as it seeks to raise $5 billion at a valuation of up to $50 billion.
但这里有个蹊跷之处。SP Energy 连一个投入运营的数据中心都没有，而且很可能要过好几年才能从数据中心产生任何收入。
But there's a trick. SP Energy does not have a single operational data center, and it will likely take years before it generates any revenue from data centers.
在本视频中，我们将深入探讨 SP Energy 的 IPO，以及它向我们揭示了 AI 泡沫的何种现状。
In this video, we'll delve into SP Energy's IPO and what it tells us about the state of the AI bubble .
SB Energy 的历史有点复杂，因为 SoftBank 多年来实际上以 SB Energy 这个名字创建了三家公司。他们于2011年成立了第一家公司 SP Energy。该公司在日本和蒙古收购了一些太阳能项目，但仅仅两年后，也就是2013年，他们就放弃了所有这些项目并关闭了这家子公司。
2015年，他们成立了 SP Energy India，该公司在印度收购了一些太阳能项目。2021年，他们关闭了 SP Energy India，并将其全部资产出售给一家印度公司。
最新一版是在2019年创建的，当时 SoftBank 在美国收购了五个太阳能项目，其中三个在得克萨斯州，两个在加利福尼亚州。SP Energy 这个名字再次被启用，用于这家新的太阳能子公司。
The history of SB Energy is a bit complicated, as SoftBank has actually created three companies under the name SB Energy over the years. They set up their first company, SP Energy, in 2011.
The company acquired some solar energy projects in Japan and Mongolia, but they abandoned all of these projects and closed the subsidiary after only two years in 2013. In 2015, they set up SP Energy India, which acquired some solar energy projects in that country.
In 2021, they shut down SP Energy India and sold all of its assets to an Indian company. The latest version was created in 2019 when SoftBank acquired five solar energy projects in the United States, three of them in Texas and two in California.
The name SP Energy has been revived once again for this new solar energy subsidiary.
这些太阳能项目原本预计最终能发电1.7吉瓦，但到2019年，建设工作尚未开始。它们不过是得克萨斯州和加利福尼亚州大片空旷的土地。到2022年，SP Energy 宣布已完成1.3吉瓦太阳能发电厂的建设。
因此，最初的五个项目大约完成了75%。他们还宣布了雄心勃勃的计划，要在2025年底前开发10吉瓦的可再生能源和储能项目。
These solar projects were supposed to eventually generate 1.7 gigawatts of electricity, but by 2019, construction work had not yet begun. It was nothing more than vast stretches of empty land in Texas and California.
By 2022, SP Energy announced that it had completed the construction of 1.3 gigawatts of solar power plants . So, the original five projects were approximately 75% complete. They also announced ambitious plans to develop 10 gigawatts of renewable energy and storage projects by the end of 2025.
2026年8月，SoftBank 正式宣布打算将 SP Energy 作为一家独立公司上市。尽管 SoftBank 将保留多数股权，但招股说明书让我们首次得以一窥该公司的财务表现。
In August 2026, SoftBank officially announced its intention to take SP Energy public as an independent company. Although SoftBank will retain a majority stake, the prospectus gives us a first look at the company's financial performance.
我们从公告中了解到的第一件事是，他们的太阳能电站进度严重落后。截至2026年6月30日，他们拥有2.2吉瓦的已投运太阳能发电装机，另有2.5吉瓦在建。别忘了，他们此前设定的目标是到2025年底实现10吉瓦的可再生能源。除了太阳能电站之外，他们没有其他能源资产。
The first thing we learn from the bulletin is that they are significantly behind schedule for their solar farms. As of June 30, 2026, they have 2.2 GW of active solar power with another 2.5 GW under construction.
Remember that they previously targeted 10 gigawatts of renewable energy by the end of 2025. They have no other energy assets besides their solar farms.
那么，闲话少说，我们来看看数字。2026年上半年，SP Energy 录得1.39亿美元的收入，并产生了5.52亿美元的巨额经营亏损。不过，报告的数字包含许多技术性会计处理，这会对基础业务表现造成失真的呈现。
Now, without further ado, let's look at the numbers. In the first half of 2026, SP Energy recorded revenues of $139 million and incurred a massive operating loss of $552 million.
However, the reported figures include many technical accounting aspects, which give a distorted picture of the underlying business performance.
SP Energy 使用互换合约来对冲电价，并将这些合约的收益记为收入。这些收益大部分是非现金性质的。它们只是合约估计价值的变化。剔除金融衍生品后，他们在2026年上半年实现了5900万美元的收入，并产生了6.32亿美元的经营亏损。
SP Energy uses swap contracts to hedge against electricity prices, and records the gains in those contracts as revenue. Most of these gains are non-cash . These are simply changes in the estimated value of the contracts.
Excluding financial derivatives, they made $59 million in the first half of 2026 and incurred an operating loss of $632 million.
最引人注目的是巨额经营亏损，但这主要归因于5.9亿美元的股权激励费用。2024年，SB Energy 的高管获得了一份有条件薪酬方案，根据该方案，他们将获得公司向所有者分配的价值中超过某一门槛部分的10%。
会计规则要求每季度对这一份额进行重估，任何增加都记为补偿费用。2026年上半年，管理层将自己对公司的估值从3000万美元上调至450亿美元。需要说明的是，这个新的450亿美元估值并非基于任何融资轮次。
没有人真的基于450亿美元的估值投资 SB Energy。鉴于近期向数据中心的转型以及即将进行的 IPO，管理层认为公司股票的价值很可能高于它仅仅是一家私营太阳能电站开发商的时候。
这一切都只是推测，而且由于这次自主决定的估值上调，管理层并未获得任何现金支付。申报文件尚未明确管理层最终将获得多少股份，但数字显示，这部分股份在 IPO 前约占公司8%的股权。
The biggest thing that stands out is the huge operating loss, but this is mostly due to $590 million in stock-based compensation. In 2024, senior SB Energy executives were given a conditional compensation package under which they would receive 10 % of the value the company distributes to its owners above a certain threshold.
Accounting rules require that this share be revalued every quarter, and any increase is recorded as a compensatory expense. In the first half of 2026, management raised its own estimate of the company's value from $30 million to $45 billion.
To clarify, this new $45 billion valuation is not based on any funding round. No one actually invested in SB Energy based on a $45 billion valuation. In light of the recent shift towards data centers and the upcoming IPO, management believes the company's shares will likely be worth more than they were when it was simply a private developer of solar farms.
All of this is mere speculation, and no cash payments have been made to management as a result of this discretionary valuation increase . The filings do not yet specify how many shares management will ultimately receive, but the figures suggest a stake worth approximately 8% of the company prior to the IPO.
如果剔除股权激励费用，经营亏损收窄至4200万美元。这些数字仍然触目惊心。太阳能电站这类资产是靠借来的钱建设的，而经营利润正是用来支付利息的。2025年，SB Energy 在22亿美元债务上录得1.62亿美元的利息支出。
到2026年6月，债务已达到40亿美元，按当前价格计算，每年约需支付2.65亿美元。他们在计入利息支出之前就已经出现经营亏损，这在我看来表明，他们运营太阳能电站的效率极低。
If we exclude stock-based compensation, the operating loss improves to $42 million. These numbers are still appalling . Assets such as solar farms are built with borrowed money, and operating profits are what pay off the interest.
In 2025, SB Energy recorded interest expenses of $162 million on $2.2 billion in debt. By June 2026, the debt had reached $4 billion, which at current prices costs about $265 million annually.
The fact that they have an operating loss even before accounting for interest expenses indicates to me that they are extremely inefficient in running their solar farms.
2026年1月，SoftBank 发布了一份题为《OpenAI 与 SoftBank 集团携手 SB Energy 建立合作》的新闻稿。说 SoftBank 与 SB Energy 合作有点奇怪，因为 SB Energy 是 SoftBank 的全资子公司。
虽然 SB Energy 最初是一家太阳能公司，但如今它正转向人工智能数据中心。
In January 2026, SoftBank published a press release titled "OpenAI and the SoftBank Group enter into a partnership with SB Energy". It is somewhat strange to say that SoftBank is partnered with SB Energy, given that SB Energy is a wholly owned subsidiary of SoftBank.
While SB Energy started as a solar energy company , it is now shifting towards artificial intelligence data centers.
到目前为止，SB Energy 已宣布两个数据中心项目，两者都将租给 OpenAI。第一个项目将是位于得克萨斯州米拉姆县的1.2吉瓦综合体。第二个将是位于俄亥俄州皮克顿的一个更为宏大的10吉瓦综合体。
得克萨斯州数据中心的建设于2025年10月开始。它原本应在2026年10月完工，但看起来进度严重落后。10月2日，他们发布了一段展示工程进度的视频。他们声称现场有650名工人。
他们正在挖一些沟渠，安装一些钢筋和混凝土加固条。他们离完工还差得远。如果他们能在2027年底之前开始运营，我会感到震惊。
So far, SB Energy has announced two data center projects, both of which will be leased to OpenAI. The first project will be a 1.2 gigawatt complex in Millam County, Texas. The second will be a more ambitious 10-gigawatt complex in Picton, Ohio.
Construction of the Texas data center began in October 2025. It was originally supposed to be completed in October 2026, but it appears to be far behind schedule. On October 2nd, they released a video showing the progress of the work.
They claim there are 650 workers on site. They are digging some trenches and installing some steel and concrete reinforcing bars. They are not even close to being finished. I would be shocked if they started operations before the end of 2027.
2026年3月，SB Energy 在俄亥俄州贝克斯顿规划中的数据中心选址举办了一场公关活动。美国能源部长 Chris Ray 和美国商务部长 Howard Lutenick 出席了活动。
活动在美国能源部官方 YouTube 频道上播出。
In March 2026, SB Energy hosted a public relations event in Beckton, Ohio, at the site of the planned data center . The event was attended by U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Ray and U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutenick.
It was broadcast on the official U.S. Department of Energy YouTube channel.
事到如今，我们预计现任政府放出的几乎一切都是谎言，但我仍然认为，有必要点出特朗普政府官员所说的最赤裸裸的谎言。让我们听听美国商务部长 Howard Lutenick 怎么说。这不是一个靠债务支撑的项目。
这不是一个无法完工的项目。这是世界上独一无二的模式，是首个此类项目。这将在美国生产可靠且负担得起的能源。Lutnick 说，这个项目肯定会落地，因为它不背负债务。建设一个10吉瓦的数据中心综合体实际上要花费数千亿美元。
SoftBank 手头并没有数千亿美元的现金。这个项目将主要通过债务融资。我们知道这一点，因为 Nvidia 承诺向 SB Energy 提供1050亿美元的贷款担保。
By this point, we expect that almost everything coming out of the current administration is a lie, but I still think it's important to highlight the most blatant lies told by Trump administration officials.
Let's listen to U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutenick. This is not a debt-based project. This is not a project that will not be completed. This is a unique model in the world, the first of its kind.
This will produce reliable and affordable energy in the USA . Lutnick says this project will definitely be implemented because it does not carry debt. Building a 10-gigawatt data center complex would actually cost hundreds of billions of dollars.
SoftBank does not have hundreds of billions of dollars in cash at its disposal. This project will be financed mostly through debt. We know this because Nvidia is committed to providing $ 105 billion in loan guarantees to SB Energy.
Lutnick 随后夸口说，该项目将生产可靠且负担得起的能源。即便电价合理，这些电也不会流向当地社区。它将完全被数据中心消耗。这个新数据中心将主要依靠天然气供电。即使他们不直接从公用事业电网取电，他们也会从市场上购买大量天然气。
这将导致天然气价格上涨，从而推高所有人的电价。俄亥俄州数据中心综合体的第一阶段预计于2028年投入运营，2032年全面完工。鉴于得克萨斯州数据中心项目似乎严重落后于计划，我对这些时间表持极其谨慎的态度。
Lutnik then boasts that the project will produce reliable and affordable energy. Even if electricity were reasonably priced, none of it would go to the local community. It will be consumed entirely by data centers.
This new data center will be powered primarily by natural gas. Even if they don't take electricity directly from the utility grid, they will buy huge quantities of natural gas from the market.
This will lead to an increase in the price of natural gas, which will raise electricity prices for everyone. The first phase of the Ohio data center complex is supposed to be operational in 2028, with full construction by 2032.
I treat these timelines with extreme caution, given that the Texas data center project appears to be significantly behind schedule .
OpenAI 签署了一份具有约束力的协议，约定在得克萨斯州和俄亥俄州的数据中心建成后租用它们，总金额为4300亿美元。这4300亿美元将在20年内支付，而且在数据中心建成之前不会开始付款。
OpenAI 自成立以来一直处于经营亏损状态。即便在这笔与 SB Energy 的最新交易之前，他们就已经背负了数亿美元的支出承诺，却没有任何偿还的办法。
OpenAI signed a binding agreement to lease the Texas and Ohio data centers upon completion for a total sum of $430 billion. The $430 billion will be paid out over 20 years, and payments will not begin until the data centers are completed.
OpenAI has incurred operating losses since its inception. Even before this latest deal with SB Energy, they already had spending commitments of hundreds of millions of dollars with no way to repay them.
SB Energy 这笔交易的财务结构有些复杂。在其 IPO 招股说明书中，SB Energy 表示其俄亥俄州和得克萨斯州数据中心集群的总资本支出将为1780亿美元。需要注意的是，这仅包括建设成本，即实体建筑本身、新的电力线路、光纤线路以及其他辅助基础设施。
这不包括图形处理器（GPU），也不包括天然气涡轮机。天然气涡轮机将由软银旗下的一家独立法律实体拥有。我们不知道这些涡轮机将花费多少，也不知道资金将从何而来。SB Energy 将从这家独立实体租用涡轮机。
The financial structure of the SB Energy deal is somewhat complex. In its IPO prospectus, SB Energy stated that total capital expenditure for its Ohio and Texas data center clusters would be $178 billion .
It should be noted that this only includes the cost of construction, the physical buildings themselves, new power lines , fiber optic lines, and other auxiliary infrastructure.
This does not include graphics processing units (GPUs), nor natural gas turbines. The natural gas turbines will be owned by a separate legal entity affiliated with SoftBank. We do not know how much these turbines will cost , nor where the money will come from.
SB Energy will lease the turbines from this separate entity.
OpenAI 将以每年215亿美元的价格从 SB Energy 租用数据中心。这笔金额仅涵盖所谓的“电力外壳”。它不包括图形处理器。OpenAI 负责自行为数据中心内部提供图形处理器（GPU）。
图形处理器将耗资3500亿美元。OpenAI 并没有3500亿美元。他们将获得一笔贷款来购买图形处理器。
OpenAI will lease data centers from SB Energy for $21.5 billion annually. This amount only covers what is called the " power shell". It does not include graphics processing units.
OpenAI is responsible for providing its own graphics processing units (GPUs) for placement within data centers. Graphics processing units will cost $350 billion. OpenAI does not have $350 billion.
They will receive a loan to purchase graphics processing units.
假设利率为8%，OpenAI 每年将不得不支付280亿美元的利息。整个项目是一座建立在数千亿美元债务之上的巨大纸牌屋，无论是软银还是 OpenAI 都负担不起。这一切都由 Nvidia 提供的贷款担保支撑。
Assuming an interest rate of 8 %, OpenAI would have to pay $28 billion in annual interest payments. The entire project is a huge house of cards built on hundreds of billions of dollars of debt, which neither SoftBank nor OpenAI can afford.
All of this is supported by loan guarantees provided by Nvidia.
SB Energy 最初计划以500亿美元的估值融资50亿美元，但我们现在已处于 AI 泡沫的最后阶段，轻松拿到钱变得稍微困难了一些。9月下旬，《国际金融评论》与参与此次 IPO 的一些投资银行家进行了交谈。
投资者拒绝500亿美元的估值。一位银行家解释说：“估值差距是一个重大问题。”除了首次公开募股（IPO）之外，SB Energy 还计划发行数十亿美元的债券。潜在投资者告诉《金融时报》，他们预计这些债务将被评为“垃圾”级（高风险），收益率约为10%。这部分债务大概是
SB Energy initially planned to raise $5 billion at a valuation of $50 billion, but we are now in the final stages of the AI bubble and getting easy money has become a little harder .
In late September, International Financial Review spoke with some of the investment bankers involved in the IPO. Investors reject the $50 billion valuation. One banker explained: "The valuation gap is a major problem."
In addition to the initial public offering (IPO), SB Energy also plans to issue billions of dollars in bonds. Potential investors told the Financial Times that they expect the debt to be rated as " junk" (high risk) with a yield of around 10%. This portion of the debt is presumably