SERV 仅适合风险承受能力极高的投资者买入；公允价值约 4.89 美元，对比 3.08 美元，意味着 12-18 个月内有 59% 的上行空间。短期波动较大：Uber 退出使 2026 年营收指引从 2600 万美元下调至 900 万-1000 万美元，摊薄是主要担忧，但长期机器人配送潜力巨大。

A few months ago, I upgraded my rating on ServRobotics stock to a buy opportunity. I said at the time that it should only be considered for investors with a very high risk tolerance .

As one of those investments with very high risk and potentially large returns.

Unfortunately, from that time until today, they have ended their partnership or announced that they are unlikely to extend their partnership with Uber, which brought them a lot of business and growth.

Since then, the share price has fallen significantly, dropping by more than 30% in the last month alone. So, since ending their partnership with Uber, or since announcing that they would end their partnership with it, Surf Robotics has updated its revenue forecast for 2026.

They had previously projected revenues of $26 million for 2026, and have reduced that to around $9 to $10 million for the same year.

So, we are facing a decline of approximately $16 to $17 million in revenue for the remainder of this year. This is a significant drop for a company that was only expecting $26 million in revenue for the entire year.

To adjust its operations, the company is reducing its 2026 capital expenditure budget from $25 million at the midpoint to $16 million. So, they are cutting about $10 million from their capital expenditure budget.

They are also reducing the operating expenses budget from $165 million at the midpoint to $145 million at the midpoint.

That is approximately $20 million in operating expenses plus $10 million in capital expenditures, totaling $30 million in spending cuts to offset a $16 million drop in projected revenue.

Therefore, the work will be greatly affected. I mean, this represents a significant portion of the company's overall revenue projections and investment plans for the remainder of this year and beyond.

They stated that the reason for ending the partnership was a disagreement over operating models, is that correct?

Surf Robotics may not have liked the conditions that Uber was trying to impose on it. Since Uber is the larger and more powerful company, it's likely that it was exerting a lot of negotiating power against Surf, and Surf may have said, " You know what?"

It is better for us to end this partnership and move forward on our own rather than agree to these terms that you are trying to impose on us.

So, that partnership is on its way out. They are now expanding their relationship with DoorDash, which could represent another source of sales and business for ServRobotics, but it remains to be seen what will happen.

They already have some innovations in their products. They are launching the "Beacon" device, a standalone, tabletop device designed to overcome internal integration barriers, allowing robots to connect directly with merchants regardless of their point-of-sale architecture.

I believe this will be important in the development of robot delivery, namely integration with restaurants. That's why I like their partnership with Uber, because Uber already has relationships with many restaurants and merchants, which helps facilitate these integration processes.

But with this new device, "Serve Robotics" can help integrate its performance and integrate its business with restaurants. And remember, restaurants want ServRobotics and other robotics companies to succeed because they have the potential to reduce delivery costs and expand market opportunities for many of these restaurants .

I can see, in 5, 10 or 15 years, these companies collaborating heavily with robots, whether built internally or through partnerships with companies like ServRobotics, and the restaurant sector performing much better thanks to robot delivery.

In the short term, it will be extremely volatile and unstable. Such announcements and disputes could lead to a decline in the company's stock. Another thing that is likely to be very negative for ServRobotics is my belief that they will dilute shareholder stakes in the coming quarters or perhaps even in the coming months.

You mentioned that they will spend approximately $145 million in 2026 as operating expenses. They are expected to generate revenues of approximately $10 million . This means a shortfall of $140 million in operating expenses for 2026 alone.

Looking at their cash balance as of the latest update, they had $235 million in cash and short-term investments on their balance sheet.

This means the equivalent of a year or a year and a half of cash flow to support their spending , and they are likely to cut their spending even further. But at some point during the next few months or quarters , I expect them to introduce new shares to the market.

They may not do that now because their stock price has dropped significantly since the announcement. The price has fallen significantly over the past month, and is down 70% since the beginning of the year.

So, I think they will wait for a more opportune time to announce it, but I think they will put shares on the market.

This is one of my biggest concerns about ServRobotics in the near term.

The stock is now trading at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 7.9, its lowest level in years, specifically since early 2024. Today I also updated my outlook for the company regarding its free cash flow over the next few years.

Surprisingly, my reviews indicated that they would experience less cash flow in the future.

The reason I expect to lose less cash flow in the future is that they will not invest as much. They will not find many opportunities in the near term, so they will not make many investments.

They will reduce their budgets and won't lose much money.

But I also lowered my expectations for the amount of cash flow they will generate from today and into the very long term . Their growth rates have been reduced due to the lack of a partnership with Uber.

Overall, the fair value of the share was estimated at approximately $4.89. The current market price is $3.08. There is a 59% upside opportunity over the next 12 to 18 months for Serv Robotics if the stock price reaches its fair value, as I calculate it.

On August 25, when I recorded the video, I said it was a buying opportunity. My confidence level was low in that buy rating due to the highly uncertain near-term results of this company.

And today I will reaffirm that classification. I still think it's a buying opportunity.

I like the expected profit level . But in the short term, I am very concerned about the dilution of stocks. I am very concerned about the company issuing more shares. I am also concerned about their ability to seize opportunities to expand with merchants without their partnership with Uber.

I would like to see expanded partnerships, perhaps with other food delivery providers such as DoorDash, GrabHub, and possibly others , or direct relationships with restaurants such as McDonald's.

That would be tremendous . Taco Bell. These are the kinds of relationships, exclusive deals, and things like that I want to see.

Overall, I think there is tremendous growth potential here in this category. It should only be considered by investors with a very high risk tolerance . It is the kind of investment that can be huge, but can also be a complete failure.

If you're looking for something like this, Surf Robotics might be right for you. I am actually looking for something like this, so I am developing a strategy for how to enter this investment center.

I am considering selling put options. I am considering buying the stock if its price drops after they announce the reduction in shares; that would be an opportunity for me to enter.

Therefore, I am looking at this closely as a potential addition to my portfolio as I am looking for high-risk, high- return investments. I believe that "Surf Robotics" falls into a similar, and even more dangerous, category than "Apstart".