SFM 在当前水平值得长期买入，因其估值偏低（12 倍盈利）、自有品牌带来的利润率扩张潜力以及强劲的资本回报，其重要性超过监管风险。
逐段跳播
最后一只股票，这是一段嘈杂的旅程，Sprouts Farmers Market。一家面向真正会看配料表的人的特色杂货店。新鲜、天然和有机食品。
And the last stock, this was a noisy trip, Sprouts Farmers Market. A specialty grocery store for people who actually read ingredient labels. Fresh, natural, and organic food.
注重健康的购物者往往会在艰难时期也保护自己的食品杂货支出。但他们面临一桩联邦证券集体诉讼，指控其首席执行官和首席财务官误导投资者。
Health-conscious shoppers tend to protect their grocery spending even when times get tough. But they have a federal class-action securities lawsuit targeting their CEO and CFO for allegedly misleading investors.
在一片乐观情绪中，Michael Bury 刚刚加仓了 Spruces，并将其打造成一个完整的投资枢纽。该股的市盈率只有约12倍。各位，这是我又一个喜欢的乐观因素。
In a state of optimism, Michael Bury just added Spruces and made it a full-fledged investment hub. The stock is trading at only about 12 times earnings. Guys, another optimistic attitude I love.
看看他们这里的毛利率，37%。这对一家杂货店来说是很高的。看看他们的净利润率，正在改善。Kroger大约做到1%到2%，而他们达到了5.6%。
Look at their gross profit margin here, 37 percent. This is high for a grocery store. Look at their net profit margin, it's getting better. Kroger achieves about 1 to 2 percent, and they are at 5.6 percent.
为什么？各位，他们还有自己的品牌。他们自有品牌的毛利率达到40%、50%、60%甚至更高。而且他们还在不断增加自有品牌的比重。
Why? Guys, they also have their own brand. Their own brand has gross profit margins of 40, 50, 60 percent and more. And they continue to add more to that.
这将继续提高这家公司的利润率。我认为这是一家能够实现7%到8%净利润率的杂货店。现在，悲观的前景源于美国证券交易委员会的调查。这是个问题。
This will continue to increase the profit margin for this company. I think this is a grocery store that can make 7-8 percent as a net profit. Now, the pessimistic outlook is due to the Securities and Exchange Commission's investigation. This is a problem.
我们应该问自己的问题是，它能达到什么价值？我在Sprouts股价三十出头时开始买入。各位，这只股票涨疯了，我在160或165卖出了备兑看涨期权，结果丢掉了股票。但一旦失去它，我也能接受，因为我认为这只股票根本不值接近那个价格。
The question we should ask ourselves is, what value can it reach? I started buying Sprouts stock when it was in the low thirties. Guys, the stock went crazy and I sold covered call options at 160 or 165 and lost the shares.
But once I lost it, I was okay with that because I didn't think the stock was worth anything close to that price.
现在看看股价。每股65美元。在它跌破每股80美元时我一直在加仓。所以我在三十出头买入，我想是在165卖出，然后开始在80重新加仓。这就是我的策略，因为在我看来，这只股票在180、165和170时已经完全失衡了。
Now look at the stock price. It's at $65 per share. I was adding to it while it was falling below $80 a share. So I got it in the early thirties, sold it at 165 I think, and started adding it back in at 80.
That was my strategy because the stock became completely unbalanced at 180, 165 and 170 in my opinion.
那么，我喜欢他的地方。高资本回报率。这对一家正在成长的公司尤其重要，而这家公司还能把规模扩大两倍。
So, the things I like about him. High return on capital. This is especially important for a company that is growing, and this company can still triple its size.
它目前的市盈率是12倍，自由现金流倍数是17倍，但他们的自由现金流受到他们在增长上投入大量资金的严重影响。因此，我在这里将重点关注他们的净利润。
It is currently selling at 12 times earnings and 17 times free cash flow, but their free cash flow is heavily influenced by the fact that they spend a lot of money on growth. Therefore, I will focus here on their net income.
好，让我们看看他们的八大支柱。八个了不起的支柱，除了他们的债务。但请记住，他们的自由现金流低于净利润，而他们的债务包含了他们所有的租赁。
Okay, let's take a look at their eight pillars. Eight amazing pillars, except for their debts. But remember that their free cash flow is less than their net income, and their debt includes all the leases they have.
分析师预期。他们的利润增长并不像你可能以为的那么多。7.5%、10%、12%，甚至在未来四年也是如此，但营收增长为7.5%、9.5%、10%和13%。
Analyst estimates. Their profits aren't growing as much as you might think. 7.5 %, 10%, 12%, and then even over the next four years, but revenues grow by 7.5%, 9.5%, 10% and 13%.
各位，这是惊人的增长。随着他们不断增长，随着他们把更多自有品牌摆上货架，他们的利润率将越来越大。
Guys, this is amazing growth. As they grow more and more, their profit margin will become bigger and bigger as they add more of their brand to the shelves.
设定的营收增长率为4%、6%和8%。请记住，这既包括正常的价格上涨，也包括新开门店。因此，我认为这是一个保守的假设。
Revenue growth rates of 4%, 6% and 8% were set. Remember that this includes normal price increases as well as new store locations. Therefore, I think this is a conservative assumption.
我设定了5%、6%和7%的利润率。他们已经实现了大约6%，所以我对这个设定感到放心。之后，我使用了16、19和22倍的市盈率。
I set a profit margin of 5%, 6% and 7%. They have already achieved approximately 6%, so I am comfortable with this. After that, I used P/E ratios of 16, 19 and 22.
我喜欢他们的资本回报率持续改善这一点。最后，我自己得出的9.5%回报率。该股目前是65。我设的低点是80，高点是185，平均是122。
I like the fact that their return on capital continues to improve. Finally, my own 9.5% return. The stock is currently at 65. I have a low of 80, a high of 185, and an average of 122.
各位，我投资组合中的每一只股票，按照我认为合理的假设，基于我的平均假设，都有潜力在未来10年实现超过15%的年化回报。
Guys, every stock in my portfolio, based on what I consider reasonable assumptions, has the potential to generate annual returns of over 15% over the next 10 years based on my average assumptions.
这就是我所投资的。我投资的不是当下的故事。我投资这些公司是为了长期持有。
This is what I invest in. I am not investing in today's story. I invest in these companies for the long term.
观察点
这个频道对 $SFM 的历次判断
Everything Money 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。