SFM是一只颇具吸引力的价值标的;12倍的远期市盈率偏低,叠加新门店与股票回购带来的10-15%年度每股收益增长预期,支撑其跑赢大盘。
逐段跳播
好,John,这就是你想拿出来讨论的那只股票。其实,我挺喜欢这只股票的,至少表面上看是这样。支持Sprouts Farmers Market的理由是什么?
Okay, John, that's the stock you wanted to bring up for discussion . Actually, I like this stock, at least superficially. What is the argument in favor of Sprouts Farmers Market?
是的,交易代码是SFM。听着,这不是我通常会在我们谈论成长股时提起的公司。不过,几年前读沃伦·巴菲特的年度致股东信终于让我明白,成长投资和价值投资其实是一回事。你只是在试图平衡股票的价值与可获得的成长机会。
如果你能同时判断出这两点,你就能识别出一笔好的投资。
Yes, the trading symbol is SFM . Listen, this isn't a company I would normally bring up when we talk about growth stocks. However, reading Warren Buffett’s annual letters finally helped me a few years ago to understand that growth investing and value investing are the same thing.
You are simply trying to balance the stock's value with the available growth opportunities. If you can determine both of these things, you can identify a good investment.
首先,Sprouts的股票非常便宜,市盈率只有其未来盈利的12倍。所以,价值非常好。这意味着,鉴于其较低的初始价格,相比其他公司,它只需要较少的成长就能成为一笔好的投资。
To begin with, Sprouts stock is very cheap, trading at only 12 times its future earnings. So, the value is very good. This means that it needs less growth compared to other companies to be a good investment given its low initial price .
是的,而且这是一家在过去三年里营收实现了10%复合年增长率的公司。
Yes, and this is a company that has achieved a compound annual growth rate of 10% in its revenues over the past three years.
这家杂货店有什么特别之处?我附近没有Sprouts门店,但如果我对这门生意性质的理解没错的话,它是一家高端杂货店吗?你所在的地区可能有不同的品牌,但这是我们看到的一种日益增长的趋势,即从传统商店转向更高档的商店。
这是适合她的地方吗?在这里她能获得比普通杂货店可能获得的2%到3%略高一些的利润率?
What's so special about this grocery store? I don't have a Sprouts store near me, but if I understand the nature of the business correctly, is it a high-end grocery store? You may have a different brand in your area, but this is a trend we see increasing as we move away from traditional stores to more upscale shops .
Is this the right place for her, where she'll get slightly better profit margins than the 2 to 3% she might get at a regular grocery store?
说清楚一点,我的意思是利润率未必有多好。我的意思是,对杂货行业来说这或许可以接受,但与其他投资机会相比,它仍然非常低。
To be clear, I mean the margins aren't necessarily great. I mean, it might be acceptable for the grocery sector, but it's still very low compared to other investment opportunities.
Sprouts的与众不同之处在于人们对更新鲜、有机和自制产品日益增长的需求。Sprouts从这一普遍趋势中大为受益。
What distinguishes Sprouts is the growing desire for fresher, organic, and homemade products. Sprouts benefits greatly from this general trend.
其实,这一点我理解。你附近没有一家“Sprouts”门店。你可能在未来五到十年内会看到,因为它目前只有大约500家分店。公司的目标是每年增长约10%,直到长期达到1,000家分店。
如果它能实现这些年度目标,这就给了它从现在起大约7年的增长空间。
Actually, I understand that. You don't have a " Sprouts" store near you. You might get it in the next five to ten years, as it currently only has about 500 branches. The company aims to grow by about 10% annually until it reaches 1,000 branches in the long term.
This gives it about 7 years of growth from now if it achieves those annual targets.
顺便说一句,这是你对成长的基本假设:它有能力开设新门店,并实现与现有门店相似的销售额。所以,仅靠新门店,我们的营收可能每年增长10%。这个数字可能略低一些。那些门店的销售额可能略低。
Incidentally, this is your basic assumption for growth: its ability to open new sites that achieve a sales volume similar to the existing sites. So, we might grow by 10% annually in revenue from new sites alone.
The number might be slightly lower. Those stores may have slightly lower sales volumes.
但你能在现有门店实现销售增长吗?通常情况下,公司是能做到的。今年不行。今年在销售增长方面有些不温不火,但你可以开始看到他们能够通过新门店和现有门店销售实现每年10%营收增长的理由。
But can you achieve growth in sales at existing stores? Normally, the company was able to do that. Not this year. This year has been somewhat lukewarm in terms of sales growth, but you can start to see the rationale for their ability to increase revenue by 10% annually through new stores and existing store sales.
这家公司在回购股票方面也做得不错。过去五年里,它把股份数量减少了约16%。这当然不是我见过的最好的,但也不算差。所以,你可以把这少量的额外增长加到每股收益上。
This company also did a good job of buying back its shares. It has reduced its share count by about 16% in the past five years. It's certainly not the best I've seen, but it's not bad either.
So, you can add that small amount of additional growth to your earnings per share.
我们可能实现每年12%的每股收益增长。我们可能达到每年15%的每股收益增长。按这个速度,我们说的是大约每5年利润翻一番。
We may achieve earnings per share growth of 12% annually. We might reach 15% annual growth in earnings per share . We are talking about roughly doubling profits every 5 years at this rate.
该股目前的预期市盈率只有12倍。以这样的温和增长,这只股票理论上有可能跑赢市场。是的,我喜欢像这样的公司估值倍数扩张的机会。所以,你知道,这是一家我还没有真正研究过的公司,大概是因为我实际上没法去那里。
我希望能有亲身体验,但这确实是一个很有说服力的案例。
The stock is currently trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of only 12 times. This is a stock that could theoretically outperform the market with this modest growth. Yes, I love the opportunity to expand valuation multiples for companies like this.
So, you know, this is a company I haven't really explored, probably because I can't actually go there. I would like to have practical experience, but it is certainly a compelling case.
这个频道对 $SFM 的历次判断
The Motley Fool 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。