$SFM · Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D. · 2026-11-09
SFM 在 10 倍市盈率下看起来有意思：盈利增长、无债务、资产负债表自我融资能力强；但同店销售正在下滑，下季度指引意味着 EPS 增速减半；随着利润下降，ROIC 将走低。未来利润被认为会大幅降低，分析师预测明年利润更低，而零售竞争、利润率以及消费疲软的风险意味着盈利可能转为负值，股价可能再跌 50%；这轮暴跌可能事出有因，风险很大。
逐段跳播
Sprouts Farmers Market 被提到很多次，评论也很多，所以让我们来看看它。箭头已经完全被破坏了。
Sprouts Farmers Market, lots of comments , is mentioned a lot, so let's take a look at it. The arrow was completely destroyed.
Michael Perry 前段时间开了一家完整的金融中心。现在他又买入了更多“lips”合约，也就是期货期权。这不是资本投资，而只是买入一个押注该股票会复苏的期权。
Michael Perry opened a full-fledged financial center some time ago . Now he bought more "lips" contracts, which are futures options. This is not a capital investment , but simply buying an option that the stock will recover.
10倍的市盈率非常有意思。种植有机食品，我妻子会很喜欢。他们在增长，是的。一切看起来都不错。利润在增长。收入在上升。是有利润的增长。据我所知，没有债务。
A P/E ratio of 10 is very interesting. Growing organic foods, my wife will love them. They are growing, yes. Everything looks good. Profits are growing. Revenues are rising. Profitable growth. There are no debts as far as I can tell.
但现在同店销售额在下降。在新店里，销售额仍然很高。不过，他们在做一些股票回购，但每股收益的增长正在发生变化。对下一季度的指引显示只有这个数字的一半。
But now comparable sales are declining. In the new stores, sales are still high. However, they are doing some share buybacks, but earnings per share growth is changing. Guidance for the next quarter indicates half of that.
投入资本回报率，是的，看起来很棒。这是 Perry 对它感到兴奋的原因之一，但随着利润下降，它也会下降。我看到的是强劲的资产负债表。他们靠自身资金支持增长，这非常、非常重要。
The return on invested capital, yes, looks great. One of the reasons Perry is excited about it, but it will decline as profits decline. I am looking at a strong balance sheet. They self-finance their growth, which is very, very important.
但这里的预测指向未来每股收益只有一半。他们将在定价上投入大量资金，以维持市场份额。而说到这些零售商，正如 Charlie Munger 会说的，他们只是零售商。现在看这些数字，未来的利润会低得多。
分析师也预测明年利润会更低。从负到正，也许这还没有被修正。分析师反应很慢。
But forecasts here point to half the earnings per share for the future. They will make a lot of investments in pricing to maintain their market share. And when it comes to these retailers, as Charlie Munger would say, they are just retailers.
Looking at the numbers now, future profits will be much lower. Analysts are predicting lower profits for next year as well. From negative to positive, perhaps this hasn't been modified yet. The analysts are slow.
但如果是2.5而不是3.70呢？定价、利润率风险、利润率下降、竞争、衰退、购买更少有机产品的疲软消费者。也许有机产品在2020年初达到顶峰后，甚至已经开始有点不再流行，现在会稳定下来。
But what if it was 2.5 and not 3.70? Pricing, margin risk, declining margins, competition, recession, weak consumer who buys less organic. Perhaps even organic products have started to fall out of fashion a little after their peak in early 2020 and will now settle down.
是的，我们尽可能多地购买有机产品。嗯，欧洲这里的价格差距并不离谱。我们有一家小店，质量好，一切都只是个人讨论。
Yes, we buy as many organic products as possible . Well, the price difference here in Europe isn't crazy. We have a small shop, quality, everything is just personal discussions.
2.5倍的市盈率在20-25倍是可能的，但如果它跌到10倍且盈利为负，该股票很容易再跌50%。这就是 Michael Perry 买入 Lips 合约的原因。他可能损失一切，也可能赢3000。
他买的是2028年或类似年份的 Lips 合约。押注，押注一家零售商可能成功，也可能失败。
A P/E ratio of 2.5 at 20-25 is possible, but if it hits 10 with negative earnings, the stock could easily drop another 50%. That's why Michael Perry bought Lips contracts. He could lose everything, or he could win 3000.
He bought Lips contracts for 2028 or something like that. Betting, betting on a retailer can work, and it can fail.
我看到 Michael Perry 和其他人在股票暴跌时爱上某个东西，但那次暴跌可能是有原因的。把这个和 Whole Foods Market 比较一下。我们住在伦敦时很喜欢 Whole Foods。
I see Michael Perry and others falling in love with something when the stock crashes, but that crash may be for a reason. compare this to Whole Foods Market. We loved Whole Foods when we lived in London.
所以，从我在这里看到的情况来看，就连 SPAR 和 DESS 这样的其他大型连锁超市现在也提供有机产品，所以只靠有机产品很难竞争。你可以在当地超市买到大部分所需，这很有意思。
So, from what I see here, even other major supermarket chains like SPAR and DESS now offer organic products, so it's difficult to compete with organic products only. You can buy most of your needs from your local supermarket, which is interesting.
因此，是的，这个行业一直在增长和繁荣，现在很可能稳定下来，并再次证明它只是一个零售行业。这对我来说是一个很大的风险。
Accordingly, yes, the sector has been growing and thriving, and it is now likely to stabilize and prove once again that it is just a retail sector. That's a big risk for me.