$SHOP · Daniel Pronk · 2026-11-04
Shopify 32% 的营收增长和利润率扩张表现强劲，但在 83 倍自由现金流下估值过高：即便按 30% 的年度自由现金流增长和仍然偏高的 50 倍倍数计算，DCF 也仅隐含 9% 的复合年回报，且随着增长放缓，该倍数最终会收缩。他现在无意持有，但称其是一家拥有良好业绩的优秀企业。
逐段跳播
Shopify。接下来我们会谈谈 Intel 和 Reddit。这是一个非常有趣的话题。
Shopify. Next we'll talk about Intel and Reddit. This is a very interesting topic.
好，我们接下来要谈的股票是 Shopify。起初，Shopify 的财报结果反响不佳，过去一个月股价一度下跌21%。看起来该股今天正在反弹，在录制本视频时上涨了6.3%，但仍较近期高点下跌了不少。
Okay, the next stock we'll talk about is Shopify. Initially, Shopify's earnings results were met with a poor response, and the stock fell as much as 21% in the past month. It looks like the stock is turning around today and is up 6.3% at the time of recording this video, but it is still quite a bit down from recent highs.
这里我们看到，他们实现了29%的商品交易总额增长和32%的年度营收增长。这些是非常强劲的增长率，尤其是在整体消费支出略有下降的情况下。自2024年以来，Shopify 以接近30%的速度增长，这非常令人印象深刻。
And here we see that they achieved 29 % gross merchandise volume growth and 32% annual revenue growth. These are very strong growth rates, especially when overall consumer spending is on a slight decline.
The shop is growing at a rate of almost 30% since 2024, which is very impressive.
他们还表示，其客户群随着时间的推移越来越强，并向我们展示了2015年的例子。他们2015年的客户群支出增长了3.4倍，即12%的复合年增长率。这意味着客户随着时间的推移在 Shopify 上花费更多，并逐渐成为更大的客户。
They also say that their cohorts are getting stronger over time and they showed us the example from 2015. So their 2015 cohort increased their spending 3.4 times, which is a 12% compounded annual growth rate.
This means that customers spend more on Shopify over time and they become bigger customers over time.
Shopify 向我们展示，其过去12个月的营业收入为21亿美元，营业利润率正在扩大。自由现金流也是如此，过去12个月已达到27亿美元，目前自由现金流利润率为19%。
Shopify showed us that their operating income over the past 12 months is $2.1 billion and operating margins are expanding. The same applies to free cash flow, which has reached $2.7 billion in the last 12 months and currently has a free cash flow margin of 19%.
Shopify 的现金流量表也非常清晰。第三季度经营现金流增长59%，达到8.18亿美元，而该季度资本支出（CAPEX）降至仅200万美元。这意味着该企业几乎所有的经营现金流都转化为自由现金流，而它是一家资本密集型程度很低的公司。
Shopify's cash flow statement is also very clear. Operating cash flow increased 59% to $818 million in the third quarter, and capital expenditures (CAPEX) decreased to just $2 million in the quarter.
This means that almost all of the business's operating cash flow is converted into free cash flow, and it is a very capital-intensive company.
Shopify 的营收增长图表是我见过的最好的之一，自2014年以来公司年营收增长率为50%，目前以每年30%的速度增长。它还推出了自由现金流部分，自由现金流增长强劲，过去12个月已达到23亿美元。
Shopify's revenue growth chart is one of the best I've seen, with the company's annual revenue growth rate at 50% since 2014 and currently growing at 30% per year. It has also launched its Free Cash Flow segment, where free cash flow is growing strongly and has reached $2.3 billion in the last 12 months.
我唯一的问题是，Shopify 目前的交易价格是其自由现金流的83倍，正如我在 Palantir 的例子中所说，这对任何企业来说都是非常高的价格。Shopify 增长迅速且盈利能力很强，但在我看来，83倍自由现金流的估值对这家企业来说仍然太高。
My only problem is that Shopify is currently trading at 83 times its free cash floor, which is a very high price for any business, as I said in the case of Palantir. Shopify is growing rapidly and is very profitable, but in my opinion, the 83x free cash flow value is still too high for this business.
我对 Shopify 做了一个快速的现金流折现计算，如果 Shopify 能以每年30%的速度增长自由现金流，并以现金流的50倍进行交易（在我看来这仍然很高），那么从现在起它只会产生9%的复合年增长率。
而且我认为其倍数最终会压缩，因为不可能在30%增长的情况下维持80倍自由现金流，尤其是当业务开始放缓时。所以，我个人目前对 Shopify 不感兴趣，但我认为它是一家伟大的企业，其业绩一直很好。
I did a quick discounted cash flow calculation on Shopify, and if Shopify can grow its free cash flow at a rate of 30% per year and trade at 50 times cash flow (which is still high in my opinion), it will only generate 9% compound annual growth from here.
And I think that its multiple will eventually compress, because it's impossible to maintain 80 times free cash flow for 30% growth, especially if the business starts to slow down.
So I'm not personally interested in Shopify right now, but I think it's a great business and its results have been good.