$SJM · Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D. · 2026-11-03
SJM 便宜是有充分理由的：高负债、业务下滑和净销售额偏低意味着它需要奇迹才能实现长期增长目标，而其收购尝试也解决不了这个问题。说话者看到风险、没有催化剂、风险回报缺乏吸引力，并认为市场的看法是正确的。
逐段跳播
J.M. Smucker，还是我该怎么发音？食品公司的负债水平很高。这些人要想比现在做得更多，需要奇迹。因此，过去十年是持续衰退。他们通常又会诉诸疯狂的收购交易，试图管理这些现金流，但他们的业务在萎缩，净销售额很低。
是的，长期目标是增长，但你需要奇迹才能实现这种增长。
J.M. Smucker, or how do I pronounce it? Food companies have high debt levels . These people need a miracle to do anything more than they are doing now. Therefore, a continuous recession for the past ten years.
They usually resort again to crazy acquisition deals, trying to manage those cash flows, but they have declining business and low net sales . Yes, long-term goals are for growth, but you need a miracle to achieve that growth.
因此，这些食品公司便宜是有充分理由的。我看不到积极方面，我看到的是风险。一切皆有可能。从基本面来看，这些公司的估值很便宜，但从风险回报的角度看，它们没有吸引力。作为价值投资者，你要寻找催化剂、寻找隐藏价值，寻找无论市场怎么想都能依靠的东西。在这种情况下，市场的看法是正确的。
Therefore, these food companies are cheap for a good reason. I don't see positive aspects, I see risks. Anything is possible. These companies are cheaply priced when you look at their fundamentals, but they are unattractive from a risk-reward perspective.
As a value investor, you are looking for a catalyst, for hidden value, and for something you can rely on regardless of what the market thinks. In this case, the market's opinion is correct.