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$SKHY

$SKHY · Ale's World of Stocks · 2026-11-10

AI 摘要 · Ale's World of Stocks

SKHY 价格低廉,值得承担风险;作为长期投资者,说话者已开始买入,并希望日后逐步加仓。他列举的理由包括:远期市盈率低于 5 倍,价格比整体科技板块便宜约 80%;季度营收创纪录、超过 100 万亿韩元(+328%),营业利润率 80%,高于 Nvidia;净负债权益比为负 32%;HBM 市占率超过 50%,处于领先地位;占 Nvidia HBM 4 供应量的最高 70%;产能已售罄至 2029 年,并将在 2028 年前保持两位数增长。短期波动和进一步下跌都有可能,而他会乐见其成。

看涨他说的是几年内
《Is SK Hynix Stock About to Make Investors Rich?》
Ale's World of Stocks发布 2026-11-10 · 28 段内容
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今天我们要聊的是 SK Hynix 的股票,代码 SKHY,我认为它是超高速人工智能内存领域的领导者,而这一领域是人工智能革命最重要的支柱之一。

Today we will talk about the stock of SK Hynix, symbol SKHY, which I consider a leader in the field of ultra-fast artificial intelligence memory, which is one of the most important pillars of the artificial intelligence revolution.

把所有因素加在一起,这也导致 SK Hynix 的股价仅在过去一个月就下跌了约40%。但在我看来,在这一片恐慌之中,SK Hynix 不仅近期表现异常出色,实现了被认为是创纪录的盈利季度,更重要的是,其股价已经跌到了最低点,一个你可能意想不到的水平。

This also caused shares of SK Hynix to fall by about 40% in the last month alone when all factors were combined. But in my opinion, amid all this panic, SK Hynix has not only recently performed exceptionally well, achieving what is considered a record quarter in terms of profitability, but more importantly, the stock's value has reached its lowest point, a level you might not expect.

我们现在就来审视当前市场走势与 SK 实际业绩之间这一明显的反差,不仅对照当前情况,也对照我对未来的预期——我认为这家公司有望在未来很多年实现出色表现,而这一切要与大家对其的预期相比较。

We will now examine this clear discrepancy between current market trends and SK's actual performance, not only in relation to the current situation , but also in relation to what I expect in the future, for what I consider a company poised to achieve outstanding performance for many years, compared to what everyone expects from it.

我是一名长期投资者,看到它的股价在这么低的价位交易后,我决定第一次投资它。于是我开始买入了一些股票,现在我来解释原因。

I am a long-term investor, and after seeing its shares trading at this low price, I decided to invest in it for the first time. So, I started buying some stocks, and I'll explain why now.

看股票走势图,我们可以看到它已较峰值下跌超过40%,目前远低于其7月份的发行价。当这家美国公司的股票首次向公众发售时,投资者的需求极其旺盛。事实上,这是历史上外国公司IPO中规模最大的一次,认购倍数超过七倍。

如今,即便已经证明了其商业模式的实力,你仍然可以用低得多的价格买到它的股票。

Well, looking at the stock chart, we can see that it has lost more than 40% of its value since its peak, and is now well below its initial offering price in July. When this American company's shares were first offered to the public , investor demand was enormous.

In fact , this was the largest IPO of its kind among foreign IPOs in history, with the subscription rate exceeding seven times. Today, even after proving the strength of its business model , you can buy its shares at a much lower price.

事实上,SK Hynix 股票目前的远期市盈率不到五倍,EBITDA比率不到三倍,这本身就是极低的估值,而且比整个科技板块便宜约80%。换句话说,仅从估值来看,这只股票是目前市场上能买到的最便宜的股票之一。毫无疑问,这是客观事实。

In fact, SK Hynix shares are currently trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of less than five and an EBITDA ratio of less than three, which is a very low valuation in itself, and is also about 80% cheaper than the technology sector in general.

In other words, based on valuation alone, this stock is one of the cheapest stocks currently available for purchase in the market. There is no doubt that this is an objective fact.

尽管围绕人工智能有诸多炒作、关于AI泡沫的众多警告以及AI股票价格的上涨,但考虑到其真实价值,这只股票仍被认为是能买到的最便宜的股票之一。

Despite all the hype surrounding artificial intelligence, the many warnings about an AI bubble, and the rising prices of AI stocks, this stock is considered one of the cheapest available when considering its true value.

事实上,目前价格如此之低,以至于连最悲观的分析师都预测股价会大幅上涨。实际上,他们平均预期其价格仅在未来十二个月内就会翻倍以上。这太惊人了。

In fact, the price is currently so low that even the most pessimistic analysts predict a significant rise in the share price. In fact, they expect, on average, its price to more than double in just the next twelve months. This is amazing.

那么,随之而来的问题是:SK 的业绩配得上这种程度的轻视吗?我们来看看事实。抛开对公司的任何偏见,看它最新的财报,我们发现其上一季度营收超过100万亿韩元,相当于三个月约780亿美元。

这是公司历史上季度销售额首次突破100万亿韩元,同比大幅增长328%。然而股价却下跌了,市值变得极低,而销售额却在增长超过300%。好,我们继续。

So, the question that comes to mind is: Does SK's performance deserve this level of disdain? Let's look at the facts. Now, stripping the company of any bias, and looking at its latest earnings report, we find that its revenue during the last quarter exceeded 100 trillion Korean won , which is equivalent to approximately 78 billion US dollars in three months.

This was the first time in the company's history that quarterly sales had exceeded 100 trillion won, registering a massive year-on-year growth of 328% . However, the share price has fallen, and its market value has become extremely low, while sales are growing by more than 300%. Okay, let's continue.

公司在营收和利润两方面也都超出预期,毛利润增长539%,毛利率从一年前的57%提升至目前的86%。更妙的是,其营业利润增长632%,超过83万亿韩元,约合620亿美元,这也将营业利润率提升至80%。

换句话说,每1美元销售额中,有80美分是净营业利润,这比 Nvidia 的营业利润率还高,你信吗。真是惊人。

The company also exceeded expectations in both revenue and profit, with gross profit rising by 539%, raising the gross profit margin from 57% a year ago to 86% currently. Even better, its operating profit rose by 632% to exceed 83 trillion won , equivalent to approximately US$62 billion , which also raised its operating profit margin to 80%.

In other words, for every dollar of sales, 80 cents of it was net operating profit, which is more than Nvidia's operating profit margin, if you believe it. It's truly amazing.

看净利润,我们发现它相比第二季度略有下降,我注意到有些人试图把这当作弱点来利用。但应当指出,这一下降主要源于非经营性会计项目,包括汇率波动带来的货币调整,以及对其部分长期投资资产估值的调整。

不过,这些仍是与实际业务运营无关的非经营性会计调整。

Looking at net profit, we find that it has decreased slightly compared to the second quarter, which I have noticed some parties are trying to exploit as a weakness. However, it should be noted that this decrease is mainly due to non-operating accounting items , including currency adjustments resulting from exchange rate fluctuations, as well as adjustments to the valuation of some of its long-term investment assets .

However, these remain non-operational accounting adjustments unrelated to actual business operations.

事实上,在运营层面,公司实现了近55万亿韩元的经营性现金流,其现金余额和流动金融工具升至创纪录的超过114万亿韩元,即超过850亿美元,而其有息债务总额仅为15万亿韩元。这意味着 SK 的净负债权益比为负32%,也就是说它财务状况强劲、资产负债表雄厚,净负债几乎为零。

In fact, on the operational level , the company achieved operating cash flows of nearly 55 trillion won, and its cash balance and liquid financial instruments rose to a record high of over 114 trillion won, or more than $85 billion, while its total interest-bearing debt amounted to only 15 trillion won.

This means that SK's net debt-to-equity ratio is negative 32%, which means that it has a strong financial position, a rich balance sheet, and almost zero net debt.

换句话说,由于其在半导体领域的领先地位,公司目前正经历一轮大繁荣。我认为 SK 是内存市场的领导者,特别是在AI处理器加速这一领域。

In other words, the company is currently experiencing a major boom, due to its dominant position in the semiconductor sector. I see SK as a leader in the memory market, specifically in the field of AI processor acceleration.

公司目前生产两种主要的标准计算机内存,即 DRAM,约占其销售额的75%,以及称为 NAND 闪存的数据存储芯片,约占其余的四分之一。简而言之,DRAM 负责为需要即时处理的活跃任务进行短期数据处理,而闪存存储单元,如固态硬盘(SSD),则充当长期文件和应用程序存储的永久存储单元。

当然,这些单元在性能上优于传统硬盘,这对人工智能及其未来至关重要。因此,这方面随着时间推移变得越来越重要。

The company currently produces two main types of standard computer memory known as DRAM, which make up about 75% of its sales, and data storage chips known as NAND flash , which make up about the remaining quarter.

In short, DRAM handles short-term data processing for active tasks that require immediate processing, while flash storage units, such as solid-state drives (SSDs), act as permanent storage units for long-term file and application storage .

Of course, these units outperform traditional hard drives in terms of performance, which is crucial for artificial intelligence and its future. Therefore, this aspect becomes increasingly important over time.

由于AI数据中心目前这两类产品都严重短缺,SK 将面向客户的平均售价较上一季度上调了最高20%——DRAM 上调20%,NAND 内存上调20%。然而,尽管价格高企,DRAM 内存的销量仍在持续上升,表明需求巨大。管理层预计下一季度这一势头还会加速。

Because AI data centers are currently experiencing a severe shortage of both, SK has increased its average selling prices to customers by up to 20% for DRAM and 20% for NAND memory compared to the previous quarter.

However, sales volumes of DRAM memory continued to rise despite these high prices, indicating huge demand. This is something management expects to accelerate during the next quarter as well.

但最重要的,也是作为 SK 股票新投资者的我真正感到兴奋的,是我认为推动这一势头的因素,即他们更专业的一类内存,称为高带宽内存(HBM)。

But the most important thing, and what really excites me as a new investor in SK shares, is what I believe is driving this momentum, which is their more specialized type of memory , called High Bandwidth Memory (HBM).

在普通计算机中,内存芯片与主处理器是分开的,通过细导线连接到主板上。但在先进数据中心内运行高度复杂的AI模型时,这段短短的物理距离造成了瓶颈,迫使处理器在等待数据到达时处于空闲状态。

SK 通过将超高速内存芯片垂直堆叠起来——如果你愿意,可以想象成摩天大楼——并将这一堆叠直接放在单个基座上紧邻AI加速器芯片的位置,解决了这一传输拥堵问题。这种物理设计使海量企业数据能够以极高速率来回传输,同时能耗大大降低,因此效率也更高。

In regular computers, the memory chips are separate from the main processor and connected by fine wires to the motherboard. But when running highly complex AI models inside advanced data centers, this short physical distance creates a bottleneck that forces the processor to remain idle while waiting for data to arrive.

Well, SK solved this traffic congestion problem by stacking ultra-fast memory chips vertically on top of each other, like a skyscraper if you like, and placing this stack directly next to an AI accelerator chip on a single base.

This physical design allows massive amounts of enterprise data to move back and forth at extremely high speeds with much less energy consumption, making it more efficient as well.

由于 SK 是该领域的全球领导者,它不仅控制着超过50%的市场份额,而且其盈利能力已达到硬件制造商几乎前所未有的水平。

Because SK is a global leader in this field, it not only controls more than 50% of the market share, but its profitability has reached almost unprecedented levels for a hardware manufacturer.

不过,信不信由你,我并不认为我们会在短期内看到这其中任何一项出现大幅下滑。接下来,让我们回顾一些理由,说明为什么我相信未来数年会有强劲表现。

However, believe it or not, I do n't think we'll see a significant decline in any of this anytime soon. Let's now review some of the reasons why I believe we will see strong performance for years to come.

我真心相信,SK 将是这件事最大的受益者。

I truly believe that SK will be the biggest beneficiary of this.

另一方面,我也不认为供应会在短期内超过需求。我认为这最终会发生,但不会是几年之内,因为仅制造 HBM 内存所消耗的物理芯片产能就是标准内存的三倍以上。这意味着,每当客户订购一颗搭载 HBM 套件的 AI 芯片,制造商就必须为其分配三倍的洁净室空间和原材料,这自然限制了芯片的整体供应。

再说一遍,我们现在需要的是全部这些数量,不只是 HBM,连传统 DRAM 也因它而仍然供应短缺。

On the other hand, I also don't think that supply will exceed demand anytime soon. I think it will happen eventually, but not for years, because building HBM memory alone consumes more than three times the physical chip capacity compared to standard memory.

This means that every time a customer orders an AI chip from an HBM kit, the manufacturer has to allocate three times the cleanroom space and raw materials needed to manufacture it, which naturally limits the overall supply of chips in general.

Again, we need all of this quantity now, not just HBM, but even traditional DRAM which is still in short supply because of it.

由于所有这些实质性障碍,SK 管理层明确表示,其动态随机存取存储器(DRAM)和高带宽内存(HBM)的产能到 2029 年已全部售罄,艰难的市场状况预计至少会持续到 2030 年。

Because of all these material obstacles, SK management explicitly stated that its production capacity of Dynamic Random Access Memory (DRAM) and High-Bandwidth Memory (HBM) had been completely sold out until 2029, with the difficult market conditions expected to continue until at least 2030.

再回顾一下 SK 的财务数据,分析师的预测即使在长期也显示,到 2028 年营收和利润都将持续保持两位数增长。虽然这一增长预计会放缓,但这并不一定意味着公司的状况会比以前明显更差。恰恰相反,它会更强、更富有,处境也会好得多。

Looking back at SK’s financials for a moment, analysts’ projections , even in the long term, indicate continued double-digit growth in both revenue and profit through 2028. While this growth is expected to slow, it doesn’t necessarily mean the company will be significantly worse off than it was before .

On the contrary, it will be stronger, richer and in a much better position.

然而,市盈率会在 4 左右?低于 4?我的意思是,价格会极低。我不知道。在我看来,相对于他们多年来完成的巨大工作量,这是一个非常低的估值。

However, the price-to-earnings ratio will be around 4? Less than 4? I mean, the price will be extremely low. I don't know. To me, this is a very low rating compared to the volume of work they have accomplished over many years.

他们仍是 Nvidia 的主要内存供应商,拥有 5000 亿美元的长期供应合作关系,很可能为 Nvidia 即将推出的 Ver Ruben 计算平台供应多达 70% 的下一代 HBM 4 芯片。

They remain Nvidia's primary memory supplier, with a long-term $500 billion supply partnership , where they are likely to supply up to 70 % of all next-generation HBM 4 chips in Nvidia's upcoming Ver Ruben computing platform.

在这一势头的基础上,管理层宣布下一代 HBM 4 芯片已开始量产并提前出货。他们已按更高的价格与客户敲定了 2027 年的合同。我们还看到,除动态随机存取存储器(DRAM)之外,企业级闪存存储也在强劲增长。

为防范未来经济放缓,他们已与全球领先的云计算服务提供商签署了 14 份为期五年的长期协议,保证到 2028 年向他们提供超过 50% 的总产能,并预先谈妥了最低价格和强制性的预付现金定金。

Building on this momentum, the administration announced that mass production of the next-generation HBM 4 chips had begun shipping ahead of schedule. They have finalized contracts with clients for 2027 at higher prices.

We are also seeing strong growth beyond dynamic random-access memory (DRAM) to include enterprise flash storage. To protect themselves from a future economic slowdown, they have already signed 14 long-term, five- year agreements with leading global cloud computing service providers , guaranteeing them more than 50% of their total production capacity through 2028, with pre-negotiated minimum prices and mandatory upfront cash deposits.

再说一遍,在这个动荡的世界里一切皆有可能,尤其是在经济、股市都如此动荡、各种事情不断发生的情况下,短期内尤其如此。所以,一如既往,永远不要投入你亏不起的钱,因为我相信情况会持续动荡。

如果股价进一步下跌,我一点都不会感到意外。那完全不会让我震惊。其实,我还有点希望如此,因为我想以更低的价格买入。我只是想说,我认为市场会剧烈波动,上下大幅震荡。你应该为此做好准备。

Again, anything is possible in this volatile world , especially with such a volatile economy and stock market with everything that is happening, particularly in the short term.

So, as always , never invest money you can't afford to lose, because I believe things will remain volatile. I wouldn't be surprised at all if the stock price dropped even further.

That wouldn't shock me at all . Actually, I kind of wish for that because I would like to get lower prices. But I'm just saying that I think the market will be volatile, with big swings up and down . You should be prepared for that.

就我个人而言,把所有这些因素综合起来,我认为在当前这个低位,这只股票值得为我的投资组合承担风险。我丝毫没有夸大其词。事实上,这是我目前持有的约 50 只不同股票中仓位最小的一只,因为我最近才开始买入。

但没错,这是一只我喜欢的股票,我希望随着时间推移增加持仓。

As for me personally, when I put all these factors together, I believe the stock is worth the risk at this low point for my investment portfolio. It is not something I am exaggerating in any way .

In fact, this is the smallest stock I currently own out of about 50 different stocks, because I only recently started buying it. But yes, it is a stock that I like and I hope to increase my stake in it over time.

观察点

季度财报中的DRAM和HBM定价以及售罄的产能
平均售价上升且产能持续售罄
未来数个季度公司季度财报
支持看涨观点

这个频道对 $SKHY 的历次判断

Ale's World of Stocks 在这只股票上共 3 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。

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