SMCI 基本面强劲（利润增长 315%、销售增长 93%），技术面显示其处于新筑底形态中的理想买入区间，支持通过“rocket”策略建立看多头寸。
逐段跳播
我打开了这张交易图表，SMCI 就出现了。那么，让我根据我们刚才谈到的内容，向你解释它在股票上是如何运作的。SMCI 制造那些用于数据中心的机架和设备。不管你喜不喜欢，这就是趋势，人们正在建设数据中心。所以，你最好从中赚点钱，不是吗？
I opened this trading chart, and SMCI appeared. So, let me explain to you how it works on stocks based on what we just talked about. SMCI manufactures those racks and devices for data centers.
Like it or not, this is the trend , and people are building data centers. So, you'd better make some money from that, wouldn't you ?
SMCI，也就是 Super Micro Computer，是个奇怪的名字，Super Micro Computer。听起来像个假名字。
SMCI, or Super Micro Computer, is a strange name, Super Micro Computer. It sounds like a fake name.
无论如何，SMCI 是一家非常好的公司。这只合适的股票，正如这里所示，包含了我们所寻找的九只优秀股票中的七只。
In any case, SMCI is a very good company . The right stock, as it includes seven out of the nine excellent stocks we are looking for, is shown here.
它拥有一个天才力量指数，这是我们自己的特殊指数。与数据库中的其他股票相比，它是一只强势股，并且最近在市场时机方面获得了良好的评级。因此，它在天才力量指数上得了 95 分。
It possesses a genius power index , which is our own special index. It is a strong stock compared to the rest of the stocks in the database, and has recently received a good rating for market timing.
Therefore, he scored 95 on the Genius Power Index.
它接近最高水平了吗？没有。它肯定处于上升趋势吗？不完全是。我们也没有处于确定的上升趋势中。它的表现超过市场吗？是的，它比市场高出 37%。
Is it close to its highest level ? no. Is it definitely in an upward trend? Not exactly. We are not in a definite upward trend either. Does it outperform the market? Yes, it outperforms the market by 37%.
它在 50 以上吗？买方掌控局面吗？利润在快速增长吗？是的，看这里，上一季度增长了 315%。销售额在增长吗？是的，93%。净资产收益率高吗？当然，25%。我更希望这个数字达到 17 或更高。
Is it above 50? Do buyers have control ? Are profits growing rapidly? Yes, look at this, 315% in the last quarter. Are sales growing? Yes, 93%. Is there a high return on equity?
Certainly, 25%. I prefer this number to be 17 or higher.
那么，第二步是：合适的市场指标是否出现了？哪只股票处在合适的市场中？是的，我们有一个有前景的市场，它刚刚转绿，而这只股票也发出了积极信号。因此，我们认为这两个因素的汇合让我们的概率有了很好的机会。
So, the second step is: Are the appropriate market indicators showing up ? Which stock is right in the right market? Yes, we have a promising market, it has just turned green, and the stock has a positive signal.
Therefore, we believe that the convergence of these two factors gives our probabilities a good chance.
我们想实施“火箭”策略，这是一种买入略微价外看涨期权的策略。那么，我这里制定的计划表明，在这张股票和市场都显示为绿色的表格中，我们要转向“火箭”策略。
We want to implement the "rocket" strategy, which is a strategy of buying covered options slightly outside the profit margin. So, the plan I have here says that in this table where the stock and the market are green , we want to move to the "rocket" strategy.
现在我们看这张六个月前的历史图表，它显示该股已从最高水平小幅回落，但它正处在一个新价格基底内的买入区域。我们现在处于复苏阶段，这是投资的理想时点。我们刚才谈到了该股逐步加仓的要点，并已把这些要点纳入系统。
今天这里的枢轴点是 4309，第一个加仓点是 4395，第二个是 4481。
Now we look at this historical chart from six months ago , and it shows that it has fallen slightly from its highest level , but it is right in the buying zone within a new price base.
We are now in a recovery phase, and this is the ideal point to invest. We have just talked about the points of gradual expansion in the stock, and we have included these points in the system.
You have the pivot point here today at 4309, the first expansion point is at 4395, and the second at 4481.
买入时可以加仓 50%，然后 30% 和 20%，或者你可以按 25% 和 25% 加仓，但系统是基于 30% 和 20% 的，我就是这样设计我的交易计划的。
You can increase by 50% when buying, then 30% and 20%, or you can increase by 25% and 25%, but the system is based on 30% and 20%, which is how I designed my trading plan.
注意，这个箭头移动得很快。因此，你需要留意着买入并逐步加仓。然后系统会告诉你把卖出订单放在哪里。从入场价下跌 7% 就能让你免于重大亏损，之后你就能获利。这将界定你的目标区间，大约在 50 到 53 之间。
Be careful, this arrow moves quickly. Therefore, you need to buy and expand gradually by paying attention. The system will then tell you where to place the sell order. A 7% price drop from the entry price will save you from heavy losses, and then you can make profits.
This will define your target range, which is approximately between 50 and 53.
下一步是利用这个机会，系统会在你的交易计划中提示：“看，Mark，我们要你使用火箭策略，也就是价外。”这意味着由于价格的内在价值，你不会得到太多亏损保护。你将力求实现大幅盈利，同时也有可能获得小幅收益。
正如我们刚才提到的，你会为自己的收益设定一个上限。
The next step is to take advantage of the opportunity, where the system indicates that in your trading plan, " Look, Mark, we want you to use the rocket strategy, i.e., out of the profit range."
This means you will not get much protection from losses due to the intrinsic value of the price. You will strive to achieve a large profit and the possibility of making small gains.
You will set a ceiling on your earnings as we just mentioned.
因此，你将以 50 美元的价格买入价外看涨期权，要知道股价目前是 4309，你会略微价外入场。你能从中赚多少利润？好，如果拿到 42 美分的权利金，你大约能赚 1%。这是净利润，这就是收入。此外，你还有机会赚取额外收益。
Therefore, you will buy out-of-profit call options at a price of $50, knowing that the stock price is currently 4309, and you will enter slightly out of profit. How much profit will you make from that?
Okay, you'll get about 1% if you get 42 cents as a bonus. This is the net profit, and this is the income . In addition, you have an opportunity to earn extra.
该股正处于突破点和一个新基底。这可能是加仓获利的好位置。这正是做市商进场、向该股注入资金的地方。这决定了你的盈亏平衡点和保护水平。你有 1% 的保护。所以，如果该股从这一点下跌 1%，你不会亏任何钱。但如果它再跌下去，你就会开始亏一些钱。
The stock is at a breakout point and a new base. This might be a good location for elevation gain . This is where market makers come in and inject money into the stock. This determines your break-even point and level of protection.
You have 1% protection. So, if the stock drops 1% from this point, you will not lose anything. But if it drops any further, you will start losing some money.
保护你的头寸。如果我想保护我的头寸，我可以做到。我不会在 50 美元这个水平保护我的头寸，但我可以实现 75% 的换手。换句话说，如果我实现了我所瞄准利润的 75%，那么系统会给我指出某个点位，那就是我应该开始投入的地方。
无论价格上涨我获利，还是价格下跌我仍然获利，那都是我该下注的点位。
Defend your position. If I want to defend my position, I can. I will not defend my position here at the $50 level, but I can make a 75% turnover. In other words, if I achieve 75% of the profit I am aiming for , then the system will point me to a certain point, and that is where I should start my investment.
Whether the price goes up and I make a profit, or it goes down and I still make a profit, that is the point at which I should place my stake.
顺便说一句，卖出期权就像产生收入，随着日子一天天过去、到期日临近，这笔收入会流向你。所以，你可以这样类比：当你持有一份期权时，你有 45 天的固定余额，然后随着到期日临近，这个余额逐渐减少，直到归零。
这就是你赚到的全部利润，不是吗？所以，这个不断减少的余额就是会到达你手里的钱。
By the way, selling options is like generating income, and this income flows to you as the days go by and the expiration date approaches . So, you can liken it to: when you have an option, you have a fixed balance for 45 days, and then as the expiry date approaches , the balance gradually decreases until it reaches zero.
That's all the profit you make, isn't it ? So, this decreasing balance is the amount of money that will reach you.
我们在这只股票上会损失本金，因此保护会更少，但同时也存在获得更大利润和等待期间额外回报的可能性。那么，这个策略在之前三次测试中表现如何？在过去十二个月里，该股实现了23.6%的回报。
We will lose capital here in this stock, therefore the protection will be less, but with the possibility of greater profit and additional return while waiting. Okay, how did the plan perform in the last three previous tests?
Over the past twelve months, the stock has achieved a return of 23.6 %.
看看该股在2025年牛市中的表现，由于一些会计问题，它表现不佳。这就是为什么报告出来很差。然后，在2022年的熊市中，所有东西都在下跌，唯独这只股票在上涨。
Looking at the stock's performance in the bull market in 2025, it did not perform well due to some accounting issues. That's why the report came out bad. Then, in the bear market of 2022, everything was going down except for the stock, which was going up.
这个系统会告诉你，如果你采用50的最低价格，也就是如果价格跌破50日移动均线，你本可以表现得更好，获得更大的利润，等等。
Well, the system here will tell you how you could have performed better if you had used a minimum price of 50 , i.e., if the price had fallen below the 50-day moving average , you would have made a bigger profit, and so on.
这个频道对 $SMCI 的历次判断
Cash Flow Machine | Mark Yegge | Wealth Architect 在这只股票上共 3 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。