对SMCI存在两种相反看法：一位嘉宾数月来一直看空，如今在财报前买入11月35-40看涨价差，预计一个月内涨至40多美元；另一位则持怀疑态度，理由是价格走势反复、均线破位，并认为下方将跌至24-25美元的价值区。
逐段跳播
你选择了Super Micro Computer，股票代码SMCI。它今天涨了不少，涨幅超过3.5%，但这是一张非常有意思的图表。我的意思是，我们远低于2024年的水平。我记得当时在110、115美元以上。即使看去年年底，我们也比那时低。
You have chosen Super Micro Computer, ticker SMCI, as your choice. It's been quite a climb today , we're up over 3.5 percent , but it's a very interesting chart. I mean, we're way below where we were in 2024.
I think we were above $110, $115. Even looking at the end of last year, we are down from there.
那么，你在Super Micro身上看到了什么你喜欢的东西，还是说这是一个看跌的走势？你可以通过看图表，对比我们现在的位置和上周末或两周前的位置来判断。
So, what are you seeing in Super Micro that you like , or is this a bearish move? And you can tell by looking at the chart where we are now compared to the end of last week or 2 weeks ago.
我对这只股票看跌已经好几个月了。周五股价暴跌时，我有一个很好的套现机会。现在对我来说，看图表，这似乎是一个决定性的时刻。我现在准备建仓，因为该做点什么了。他们的财报将在几周后发布。
我愿意持有这个仓位直到财报公布。我会买一个简单的看涨期权价差，只为博取上涨趋势。你知道，这完全是基于风险的。我考虑买入11月35-40的看涨期权价差，成本大约在1.15到1.20美元。
再说一次，这对我来说确实是一个决定性的时刻。而且我认为，在未来一个月左右，我们至少会看到它回到40多美元。
I have been bearish on this stock for months. I had a great opportunity to cash out when the stock crashed on Friday. Now to me, looking at the charts, it looks like this is a decisive time.
And I'm ready to take a position now because it's time to do something. Their earnings report will be released in a few weeks. I am willing to hold this position until the earnings report comes out.
I would buy a simple call spread just for an upward trend. You know, it's completely risk- based. I'm thinking of buying a November 35-40 call spread , which will cost around $1.15 to $1.20.
Again , this is truly a defining moment for me. And I think that in the next month or so we will see it at least come back into the 40s.
好的，KG。那么，你也看到未来一个月左右出现技术性上行的可能性吗？我们在11月3日有他们的财报。Scott用另外两张图讲得很好。但我对此有点怀疑。如果你看1年日线图，你会看到它的价格波动相当大。
这里的价格行为非常反复无常。它试图维持趋势，但无法维持太久。通常你会在2到3周内看到反转趋势。这就是我对这只股票有些看空的原因。如果你看过去3-4个月，也就是自7月以来，可以看到一些买家进入市场。
如果你那样看的话，我们能够形成一个上升楔形。但我们已经跌破了那个楔形的底部。我们跌破了20日移动平均线，跌破了50日移动平均线，现在正在测试200日移动平均线。这是生死攸关的争夺吗？
是的，没错。Scott说得对。你必须守住200日移动平均线。不幸的是，下方仍有一个缺口区域，过去一年吸引了很多买家。MACD仍在零线下方，并且低于12 EMA和26 EMA。RSI显示出一些反弹，但那是由于今天4%的涨幅。
你需要在这里看到更多的持续性。日线图看起来非常混乱，市场上可能有更多机会，但我理解Scott是在试图看这里的风险回报平衡，而200日移动平均线似乎有些道理。让我们转到周线图，这就是你对这只股票更加悲观的地方。
在过去一年半到两年里，它并没有真正做出什么特别的表现。它在20到60美元的区间内交易。是的，相对于这只股票的价格，这是一个相当大的区间。但它原本在200周移动平均线附近交易，目前它交易在200周移动平均线下方，甚至低于50周和20周移动平均线。
不幸的是，尽管MACD在零线上方，但12 EMA已跌破26，而且看起来可能还会进一步下跌。RSI的更低高点，以及更高低点，也在上周被跌破。看起来它只是在某个区间内交易。它处于区间的中部，周线动能表明我们在这里可能还会走低一点，价值区域基本上在24到25美元左右。
通常，买家会试图在那个水平入场，所以可以这样看。这在我看来有点看跌。
Okay, KG. So, do you also see the possibility of a technical upside in the next month or so? We have their income report for November 3rd. Scott was doing very well with the other two charts.
But I'm a little skeptical about this. If you look at the 1- year daily chart, you will see that its price has fluctuated quite a bit. The price behavior here is very erratic. It tries to hold a trend , but cannot hold it for long.
Usually you will see a reversal trend within 2 to 3 weeks. And this is why I am somewhat negative about this stock. If you look at the last 3-4 months, i.e. since July, some buyers have been seen entering the market.
We were able to create a kind of ascending wedge , if you look at it that way. But we have broken through the bottom of that wedge. We have broken below the 20- day moving average , broken the 50- day moving average and are now testing the 200- day moving average.
Is this a life-or- death struggle? Yes, that's right. And Scott is right. You must maintain the 200-day moving average. Unfortunately, there is still a gap zone below that has been attractive to many buyers over the past year.
The MACD is still below the zero line and is below the 12 EMA and 26 EMA. The RSI is showing some bounce , but that is due to today's 4% increase. You need to see more consistency here.
The daily chart looks very messy and there is probably more opportunity in the market, but I understand that Scott is trying to look at the risk-reward balance here and the 200- day moving average seems somewhat logical.
Let's move on to the weekly chart, and this is where you become more pessimistic about this stock. It hasn't really done anything special in the last one and a half to two years.
It is trading in the range of $20 to $60. And yes, this is a pretty big range compared to the price of this share. But it was originally trading around this 200- week moving average , and currently it is trading below that 200-week moving average, and even below the 50-week and 20-week moving averages.
Unfortunately, although the MACD is above the zero line , the 12 EMA has dropped below 26 and it looks like it could drop a bit further. The RSI, lower highs, and higher lows also broke last week.
It looks like it is only trading within a certain range. It is in the middle of the range and weekly momentum says we could go a little lower here, and the value area is basically around $24 to $25.
Typically, buyers try to enter at that level , so look at it that way. This seems a bit bearish to me.
这很好，Kevin说的都是对的，但他说的一件事引起了我的注意，那就是风险回报比。所以我认为，这个上行看涨期权价差之所以提供如此好的风险回报机会，原因之一可能是某些技术面看起来不太好。
我认为现在是一个重要的关口。它完全可能回到24美元的缺口区域，但这也是为什么Heinz有57种口味，市场就是这样构成的，我尊重KG说的一切。
And that's great, everything Kevin said is correct, but one thing he said caught my eye, and that was the risk- reward ratio. So I think one of the reasons why this upside call spread is offering such a great risk-reward opportunity may be that some of the technical aspects are not looking very good.
I think this is an important juncture now. It could definitely go back to the $24 gap area , but that's also why Heinz has 57 varieties, that's how the market is made, and I respect everything KG says.