$SMCI

SMCI 初步的 2027 财年第一季度指引对公司非常正面:营收 185 亿至 195 亿美元,较此前上限高出约 40 亿美元、即 26.7%,毛利率为 12%–12.5%,此前为 10.4%–10.8%,显示 AI 服务器需求更强、产品结构更优;说话者本人对股价走势并不兴奋。

他说的是几周内
《SpaceX Earnings Just Changed Everything for AI Stocks!!》
Jose Najarro Stocks发布 2026-10-20 · 4 段内容
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4 段内容

我们还有一家 Super Micro 公司,对吧?一家我原本没指望它能拯救市场的公司,我不知道它是否真的做到了,但它为整个领域提供了乐观的前景。

We also have a Super Micro company, don't we? A company I didn't expect to save the market, and I don't know if it actually did , but it provided an optimistic outlook for the field as a whole.

无论如何,让我兴奋的不是股价走势本身,而是我们从 SuperMicro 和 SpaceX 双方听到的评论,对吧?

Regardless, I'm not excited about the stock price movement itself, but rather about the comments we've heard from both sides, SuperMicro and SpaceX, aren't I?

首先,SuperMicrosoft 大幅上调了 2027 财年第一季度的业绩预期。他们已提供了下一季度的初步业绩,并将在 11 月 3 日的财报电话会议上完整公布。

First, SuperMicrosoft significantly raised its forecast for the first quarter of fiscal year 2027. They have provided preliminary results for their next quarter, which they will announce in full on November 3 during the earnings call.

营收预计在 185 亿美元至 195 亿美元之间。这是乐观的上调,上下限各提高了 40 亿美元,即预期上调了约 26.7%。这非常巨大。现在,SuperMicro 卖出了更多服务器,或者说营收在增长。

这意味着一点:服务器的需求非常巨大。另一点,我们看到的另一点,是毛利率也上升了。毛利率现在预计在 12 至 12.5 之间,而此前是 10.4 至 10.8。因此,从营收来看,公司指向 AI 平台需求更强劲,从利润率来看,则指向客户产品结构的改善。

这是它积极的一面,对吧?这不仅仅是低利润率产品的销量更大,而是利润率更高、销量也更大。我认为这极其有用,对 Super Micro 非常积极。对我来说,这意味着如果你在提高毛利率,就说明 AI 服务器的需求如此之大,以至于人们没有对价格施加太大压力,也没有打价格战,这告诉我 AI 的需求极其旺盛,NeoCloud 和云服务器提供商的需求也极其旺盛,这对我持有的许多公司来说总体上是积极的。

Revenue is expected to range between $18.5 billion and $19.5 billion. This was an optimistic increase of $4 billion at the lower and upper limits, or an update of approximately 26.7% in the forecast.

This is enormous. Now, SuperMicro is selling more servers, or increasing its revenue. This means one thing: there is a huge demand for servers. The other thing, the other thing we saw, is that gross profit margins have also increased.

Gross profit margins are now expected to range between 12 and 12.5, compared to 10.4 to 10.8 previously. Therefore, the company points to stronger demand for AI platforms in terms of revenue, and to the mix of customer products in terms of margins.

That's the positive side of it, isn't it? It's not just a larger volume of lower-margin products, it's more margins and more volume. I think this is extremely useful, and very positive for Super Micro.

For me, this means that if you're increasing gross profit margins , it means there's so much demand for AI servers that people aren't putting a lot of pressure on prices, or engaging in price wars, and that tells me the demand for AI is insane, and the demand for NeoCloud and cloud server providers is insane, and that's generally positive for many of the companies I own.

观察点

11月3日财报电话会上公布的2027财年第一季度完整业绩
营收185亿至195亿美元,毛利率12%至12.5%
11月3日11月3日财报电话会
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