$SMCI · Verified Investing · 2026-11-02
SMCI正跌破至约$28.17的支撑区(78.6%斐波那契回撤、趋势线及前期枢轴),激进交易者可在此逢低吸纳,等待反弹;只要法律问题已经过去,SMCI可能大幅走高,不过明天的财报可能先将其打至该$28水平。
逐段跳播
首先看 SMCI。SMCI 这边,你可以看到10月21日我们有一个大幅跳空高开。那是因为有消息称,SMCI 的许多高管在一些芯片被运往亚洲、重新包装后卖到中国的相关法律诉讼中被洗清了责任。
有些人因此惹上了大麻烦,但留下来的高管在这些潜在未来问题上都被洗清了。
First up, SMCI. Now, SMCI over here, you can see we had a big gap up on October 21st. That was on the back of news that SMCI had a lot of their executives cleared from legal actions regarding some of the chips that were sent over to Asia, repackaged, and then sold to China. some individuals got in a lot of trouble for that, but the executives they have left got cleared for all of that uh potential future
现在我们正在跌破这个看跌盘整,这让我想到我认为 SMCI 正走向的一个关键支撑位。我已经为你们画出来了。你可以看到我从今年3月的低点画了一条趋势线,连接到7月的下一个枢轴低点。
我从7月这里的低点画了一个斐波那契回撤到10月这里的高点,看看什么与之相交,X 标记的位置在28.17美元,也就是78.6%斐波那契回撤位。还要注意,就在这个区域里我们还有一些高点枢轴。
所以本质上这也是一个支撑区,从29.2美元这里开始。
Now we're breaking this bearish consolidation which brings me to a key level of support that I think SMCI is headed for. I've already got it drawn out for you. You can see I've got a trend line coming from the lows on March of this year connected over to this next pivot low in July.
I've drawn a fib retrace from the lows here in July up to the high here in October and see what's uh intersecting with an X marks the spot at $28.17 which is the fib 786 fib uh retrace.
Also notice right amongst this area we've got some high pivots. So it's in essence as a support zone as well starting right here at $292.
所以,如果你是激进的交易者,可以在29.12附近开始逐步买入,或者等这个斐波那契回撤位被触及,或者等斐波那契位和这条支撑上升趋势线都被触及,然后开始建仓 SMCI,等待反弹。这是一次急剧下跌,很可能随着这家公司深度参与 AI 数据中心领域而获得一些动能。
利润率不算高,但表现仍然相当不错。只要他们把法律问题抛在身后,我认为 SMCI 在图表上可以走得高得多。28.17美元是一个不错的保守买入点。
So, if you're an aggressive trader, you can start inching in around 2912 or wait for this fib retrace to get hit or wait for both the fib and this support inclining trend line to get hit and then start uh accumulating some SMCI for a pending bounce.
This is a sharp sell down, one that likely will catch some traction as this company is is heavily involved in the AI data center space. Margins aren't that high, but they're still doing pretty good.
And as long as they got the legal issues behind them, I see SMCI could be going much higher on the chart. $28.17 is a nice conservative spot to pick some up.
记住,SMCI 明天盘后公布财报,AMD 也是。这就是我们今天讨论它们的原因。我们明天很可能还会再回来看看它们,但推动 SMCI 价格跌到28美元那个水平的催化剂,很可能就是明天的财报电话会议。
Now, keep in mind SMCI has earnings after the bell tomorrow and so does AMD. This is why we're covering them today. We likely will still uh uh check back in on them tomorrow, but the catalyst for the price to drop on SMCI down to that level of $28 could very well be the earnings call tomorrow.
观察点
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