RSI接近30，已形成一波可能小幅延续的反弹；但他预计，SMH自503启动的ABC反弹在639见顶后，将跌破503关口。一旦跌破503，将构成一波很好的上涨行情；半导体具有高度周期性，过去几轮下行中曾跌超65%。
逐段跳播
SMH 的 RSI 上周晚些时候降到了 30，这正是上一次接近 503 的交易低点时的水平。
the RSI on SMH got down to 30 late last week. uh which is where it was uh at the last trading low near 503.
我看的是 SMH，而不是 SOXX。6 月 22 日 SMH 涨到 668 附近时，我的看法是它会跌到 527。后来我又进一步修正，认为它会跌到略低于 515。它最终在 503 触底。
I look at SMH as opposed to SOXX. Um when uh SMH was up around 668 on June 22nd, my take was I think it's going to drop to 527. And I refined that that it would drop a little below 515. It bottomed at 53 503.
你我在 8 月中旬交谈时，我的预期是会有一波上涨，涨向 600。我们确实等到了。之后出现了一次回调，而在过去两周里，我指出的是，David，从 503 涨到——我记得是 607，然后回调到 540。
如果涨幅相等，就会到 634。它最终在哪里见顶？639。所以，当价格到达那里时，我的看法是我们刚刚完成了从 503 开始的 ABC 反弹。我们会走低。我仍然认为我们会看到 SMH 跌破 503 水平。
When you and I spoke back in mid August, my expectation was that we were going to see a rally up towards 600. Uh we got it. We then got a pullback and over the last two weeks, what I've pointed out, David, is the rally from 503 to I think it was 607, then a pullback to 540.
If it was equal, it'd get to 634. Where did it top at? 639. So, when we got there, my take was we've just completed an ABC rally off of 503. We're going lower. I still believe we'll see SMH below the 503 level.
但正如我之前提到的，RSI 和 SMH 降到了大约 30。这本来就会带来一次反弹，而今天这次反弹正在兑现。所以，我认为它能再延续一点吗？可以。
but as I noted earlier, the RSI and SMH got down to about 30. It was do a bounce and today that bounce is, you know, being realized. So, I think can it extend a little bit further? Yep.
哦，太好了。这就是 SMH，你可以看到 RSI 降到了 SMH 在 503 时的水平，我想那是在 7 月下旬。所以是的，我认为我们会迎来一次反弹。
Oh, great. There's the SMH and you see the RSI um down to where it was when SMH was down at 503 U and you know in late July I believe. Uh so yeah, I think we're going to get a bounce.
我在半导体板块要指出的一点是，它是最具周期性的板块之一。在 2001 年、2002 年以及金融危机期间，SMH 跌幅超过 65%。
The thing I point out in semiconductors, it's one of the most cyclical sectors there are. In 2001 and two and in the financial crisis, SMH dropped by more than 65%.
而如果 SMH 跌破 503，就会为一次大涨创造条件。
and if the SMH drops below 503, it's going to set up a great rally.
这个频道对 $SMH 的历次判断
David Lin 在这只股票上共 2 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。