SMH 突破下行趋势线，正回撤至 2026 年 3 月低点的 50% 斐波那契位，日线处于超卖状态，因此即便次日抛售延续，也可能出现技术性反弹；短期走势偏弱，但反弹可能重新测试 50% 区域。
逐段跳播
SMH 下跌超过 5%，抛售几乎一直持续到收盘前最后 10 分钟，那时出现了空头回补，但天哪，市场下行压力很大，尤其是科技股。
SMH was down over 5% and the selling just literally continued all up until about the last 10 minutes where there was short covering into the end of the day, but gosh, lot of downward pressure in the markets, specifically on tech.
我想暂停一下，因为我想说，我一直用 SMH 来判断这个市场什么是看涨、什么是看跌。我们确实涨了很多。你得说，今年的主线就是 SMH，对吧，包括内存类标的、AI 数据中心建设、电力类标的等等。
但 SMH 确实反映了市场上有多少看涨情绪。我们在这里可以清楚地看到，这张图上我们在做什么？我们已经突破了这条下降趋势线，现在只是在回撤。我们在做回撤。你看，我已经把速查表给你放上来了。
我们有从 2026 年 3 月这个低点枢轴开始的斐波那契回撤。价格走势正好来到 50% 斐波那契回撤位。而且与此同时，日线时间框架上正好处于超卖状态。这一切告诉我，即使接下来一天我们看到进一步抛售，我们很可能也该反弹了。
也许是在明天抛售耗尽之后的周一。至少这是我在关注的，因为这些形态出现在这个节目里是有原因的。它们反弹的次数多于失败的次数。所以，这是一个很好的形态，处于超卖状态，加上斐波那契回撤和下降趋势线，理应反弹。
我基本上有三个因素在这里告诉我，尽管明天可能有抛售压力，但这可能是短期买入机会，让价格回到那个平行通道内，重新测试平行通道的 50% 区域。我们明天看看会怎么发展，但至少这是我在 SMH 上看到的。
不过短期来看，就回撤的方式和回撤的深度而言，看起来并不好，但它确实该有一次技术性反弹了。
I want to pause for a second because I want to say that the SMH is what I've been following for what's bullish and what's bearish in this market. We've really rallied up. You got to say the story of the year is the SMH, right, with the memory plays, uh, AI data center buildouts, power plays, things like that.
But the SMH really contained how much bullish sentiment we had in the markets. And we see here clearly, what are we doing on this chart, guys? We've had a breakout from this declining trend line right here.
And now we're simply retracing it. And we're doing a retrace. If you see, I've already gotten the cheat sheet here up on for you. We've got the fib retrace from this low pivot in March of 2026.
Price action is coming right here to the 50% fib retrace. All right. And it's doing so at a direct line with an oversold condition right on the daily time frame. All of that tells me even if we see further selling in the next day, we likely are due for a bounce.
Maybe it's coming on on Monday after the selling exhausts itself tomorrow. That's what at least I'm watching for because guys, these patterns are on this show for a reason. They bounce more often than they fail.
All right, so this is a great pattern with an oversold condition due for a bounce with the fib retrace and a declining trend line. I basically have three factors right here telling me despite what could be selling pressure tomorrow, it could be a near-term buying opportunity for price to run back inside that parallel, retest the 50% area of the parallel.
We'll see how that all shakes out tomorrow, but at least that's what I'm seeing on the SMH. Near-term though, that's not looking great as far as how it retraced, how much lower it's retraced, but it is due for a technical bounce.
这个频道对 $SMH 的历次判断
Verified Investing 在这只股票上共 23 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。