$SMH · Verified Investing · 2026-10-27
SMH急跌进入峰值抛售区，该区域略高于RSI 30，并处于2025年4月平行通道底部支撑附近，加之下降趋势线被跌破，这些因素支持其反弹。若SMH继续上行，短期上方阻力位于平行区间的50%水平；在尝试上攻该位置之前，未来几天可能出现回调。
逐段跳播
我主要指的是半导体指数“SMH”，我们会在讲完纳斯达克之后讲它。在那里你会看到指标，用来判断这个市场是要反弹，还是要继续下跌，而在我们看完纳斯达克之后，我会继续在这个方向上为你做指引。
I am primarily referring to the Semiconductor Index "SMH", which we will cover after Nasdaq. There you will get the indicator to see if this market is going to bounce back, or if this market is going to go selling, and I will continue to guide you in that direction after we take a look at the Nasdaq.
接下来，各位，乐观程度指标就在SMH这个框里。现在，各位，我们已经看到SMH大幅下跌。以至于你可以在这里看到，我们当时处在抛售高峰区。我们在屏幕底部相对强弱指标的30阈值上方一点反弹。
此外，我们当时正进入一个很可能带来反弹的支撑区。这个区域是从2025年4月“解放日”低点开始的那条长期平行线的底部。这个区域本应在大幅下跌后为抛售提供一个出口，然后又叠加了一层支撑，也就是我在屏幕顶部标出的这条下降趋势线。
这条下降趋势线正是SMH最终突破的位置。我们在本节目中非常频繁地讲什么？我们讲突破交易，然后是回调，然后是反弹。现在，我们还没有跌到这条趋势线的底部，但你可以看到它在图表上是怎么起作用的。
有时候趋势线还没被触及，反弹就已经发生了。很多情况都与之前的走势有关。但在这个案例中，它同样与之前的走势有关。这种情况正是我在2025年4月提到的。这就是为什么我们正在看到这轮反弹。
如果我们明天或未来几天继续上涨，短期上行阻力将位于这个平行区间的50%处。
Next, guys, the optimism scale is in the SMH box. Now, folks, we've seen a sharp decline in SMH. To the point that you can see here that we were in the peak selling zone. We were bouncing right above the 30 threshold on the Relative Strength Index at the bottom of the screen.
In addition, we were entering a support zone that was likely to lead to a rebound. This area is the bottom of this long-term parallel line that started from the lows of Liberation Day in April 2025.
This area should provide an outlet for selling with a sharp downward move and then add another layer of support, which is the descending trend line that I have indicated here at the top of the screen.
This downtrend line was the point where SMH finally broke through. What do we cover very frequently in this program? We cover breakout trades, then pullbacks, then bounces. Now, we haven't dropped to the bottom of this trend line, but you can see how it works on the charts.
Sometimes the trend line is not touched before a bounce occurs. Many cases are related to previous price movement. But in this case, it was also related to the previous price movement.
This situation is precisely where I mentioned in April 2025. That is why we are witnessing this rebound. The short-term upside resistance will be at the 50% of the parallel range if we continue to rise tomorrow or in the coming days.
但目前，SMH指标上已经出现了三根K线的上涨走势。能突破这条趋势线真是太棒了。如果我们先出现某种回调，然后再去尝试冲击平行通道的50%区域，我也不会感到意外。
But at the moment, we have an upward movement of three candles on the SMH indicator. It's fantastic to break this trend. I wouldn't be surprised if we saw some kind of pullback over the next couple of days before we try to attack the 50% area of the parallel channel.
这个频道对 $SMH 的历次判断
Verified Investing 在这只股票上共 30 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。