$SMH · David Lin · 2026-10-30
SMH 显示出严重的机构派发：在大幅上涨之后，能量潮指标（OBV）跌破，并已反弹回到跌破处的“吻别”形态，属于见顶阶段。因此，半导体板块可能以非常大的幅度回落。
逐段跳播
举个例子，如果我们看一下，把半导体调出来。就是 SMH，我这周早些时候分享过。我觉得半导体板块真正有意思的地方是——现在我重点看成交量。现在底部有成交量，我们还有这条白线，叫做能量潮指标（OBV）。
它显示，当它上升时，意味着人们在吸筹，资金正在流入这个板块，当然半导体此前有过一波巨大的上涨。而最近几个月，我们看到了大量抛售，很多大阴线。我们看到能量潮指标形成了一个圆弧形态，它跌破了，然后又回升，形成所谓的“吻别”形态。
也就是先有一个筑顶阶段，市场跌破，然后回升，跟它吻别，做最后一次上冲，之后可能大幅回落。所以半导体板块的成交量一直在告诉我们，这个板块正在出现大规模抛售，巨大的机构派发式抛售，我们必须对此保持警惕。
So, for example, if we take a look at um let's put up pull up semiconductors. So, the SMH, I was sharing this earlier this week. What I what I find really interesting with the semiconductor space.
Now I'm going to focus on the volume here. Now I've got the volume across the bottom. We've got this white line which is called the onbalance volume. So it shows when it's going up it means people are accumulating shares.
They're moving into this space and of course semiconductors have had a huge move to the upside. Now more recently in the last few months we have seen huge bouts of selling lots of big red bars.
We've seen the onbalance volume put in our rounding formation. It broke down. It has then come up and what is called kind of a kiss goodbye. So you have a topping phase. The market breaks down.
It comes up and kind of kisses it goodbye for one last move and then potentially unwinds in a very big way. So the semiconductor space the volume this has been telling us that we're seeing big selling huge institutional distribution selling in this space and we need to be aware of it.
这个频道对 $SMH 的历次判断
David Lin 在这只股票上共 3 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。