$SMH · Verified Investing · 2026-10-30
SMH 在三日急涨于 2025 年 4 月低点起的 50% 通道阻力位失败、且今年 4 月突破失败后，正承受极端抛压。52755 处可能出现小幅支撑，但 SMH 未来数个交易日可能跌向 500 美元区域，即 50363 的 7 月低点枢轴；触及下降趋势线后可能出现反弹。
逐段跳播
接下来看 SMH。我每天都会在交易中关注 SMH 的收盘价，它是我判断市场风险偏好开启还是关闭的晴雨表，尤其是在我们 2026 年经历的这轮由 AI、数据中心和科技股带动的上涨行情中。
如果你看这张图，我标出了这个阻力区域，也就是平行通道的 50% 位置。我们经历了一波漂亮的 3 天急涨，直接冲到该水平，而这个水平守住了，形成阻力。这个平行通道可以一直追溯到 2025 年 4 月的低点。
通道非常窄，价格此前基本被限制在通道内，直到今年 4 月出现突破，之后我们试图维持在通道上方，但此后一直未能成功，价格被压得更低。今天 SMH 承受着极大压力。52755 这里可能有一点非常小的支撑。
我看到 SMH 的抛压目标位就在这里。如果今天到不了，那可能性不大，因为那将是一次巨大的下跌；但在接下来的交易日里，这个低点枢轴大约在 500 美元，关键的心理整数关口。50363 是 7 月的低点枢轴。
SMH 很可能朝那里去。另外，还有这条下降趋势线，它标示了 SMH 的突破尝试，我预计价格最终会回落、触及这条趋势线，然后我们可能看到下一次反弹。
Next up, guys, into the SMH. Now, the SMH, and I cover this in trading, the close every single day. This is my barometer for risk on risk off scenarios in the market specifically during this AI uh data center and techled rally that we've experienced in the year 2026.
Now if you can see on this chart I've highlighted this area of resistance on the chart the 50% area of the parallel channel. We had a beautiful 3-day surge right up into that level and that level held as resistance.
Now, this parallel channel, guys, dates all the way back to the April 2025 lows. It's a very narrow one, one that price mainly was contained in until we had this breakout in April of this year, and then we tried to maintain above it and have since continue failing, driving price down lower.
Now, the SMH under extreme pressure today. We could have a minor minor bit of support here at the 52755. I see the destination for the SMH selling pressure. If it doesn't get there today, which would be unlikely.
This would be a huge drop, but in the coming trading days, this low pivot right around $500, key psychological whole round number. 50363 was the low pivot in July. That's where the SMH is likely headed.
Plus, we've got this declining trend line that designated the breakout attempt on the SMH, and I anticipate price to eventually come down, tag that trend line, and then we can see our potential next bounce.
这个频道对 $SMH 的历次判断
Verified Investing 在这只股票上共 29 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。