$SMH · Verified Investing · 2026-11-03
在科技股大幅抛售后，SMH 近期至中期可能从 495-503 支撑区（50 周均线 495、枢轴低点 503.63）反弹，至少回升至 20 周均线 570；但价格必须尽快触及上述某一水平，否则在支撑上方企稳可能带来横盘整理和进一步下跌。
逐段跳播
半导体股票上涨了2%。这是SMH ETF，用于半导体芯片，
Semiconductor stocks rose by 2%. This is the SMH ETF, for semiconductor chips,
接下来是SMH基金。各位，在我看来，这才是真正的涨跌指标。而且和Q指数一样，各位，看看图表上这里发生的巨大转变。这个转变的最低水平是503.63。我接下来要做的，与我前几天分析SMH指数时略有不同。
我会把它转换成周线时间框架，因为我认为这对大家理解非常重要。正如我提到的，对我来说，SMH指数是衡量市场是向上还是向下趋势的指标。现在，在周线时间框架上，看看这些红色K线，它们都出现在过去五个交易周里。
它们都直接指向图表上的下跌。现在，如果你加上周线移动平均线，注意价格正在接近哪里。这条蓝线代表495水平的50周移动平均线。记住503这个下方转折点。所以，495到503之间的区域就是我所看到的支撑区。
如果价格继续下跌，我们很可能会看到近期到中期的反弹，至少把我们带回570点的20周移动平均线水平。这就是我在抛售持续时看到的，我们很可能正走向反弹。当我们把纳斯达克以及SMH上潜在的反弹水平结合起来，它告诉你，科技板块，正如我们已经知道的，已经受到重创，可能值得一次技术性反弹，尤其是图表上的技术指标，特别是正在非常接近的50周移动平均线。
可能改变我在这里分析的是，如果价格在到达50周移动平均线或这个503枢轴点底部之前就开始企稳而不反弹。这两个水平之一必须被触及，而且必须尽早而不是更晚发生，反弹才能开始。否则，在支撑位上方的横盘整理实际上可能导致进一步下跌。
因此，这个时机极其重要。我想看到更多抛售，随后SMH指数出现即将到来的反弹。
Next is the SMH fund. Guys, in my opinion, this is the true indicator of ups and downs. And like the Q index, folks, look at this massive shift that has taken place right here on the chart.
The lowest level for this transition is 503.63. What I am about to do is slightly different from what I did in previous days when analyzing the SMH index. I will convert it to the weekly timeframe because I believe this is very important for everyone to understand .
As I mentioned, for me, the SMH index is a measure of whether the market is trending upwards or downwards. Now, clearly on the weekly timeframe, look at these red candles that have all appeared during the past five trading weeks.
They all point directly to a decline on the chart. Now , if you add the weekly moving averages , notice where the price is approaching. This blue line represents the 50-week moving average at the 495 level.
Remember this lower turning point at 503. So, the area between 495 and 503 is the support zone I see. If the price continues to fall, we are likely to see a near- to medium-term bounce, bringing us back at least to the 20-week moving average level at 570 points.
This is what I see as this selling continues, and it is likely that we are heading for a rebound. When we combine the potential bounce levels on the Nasdaq as well as on the SMH, it tells you that the technology sector, as we already know, has been badly hit and may be worthy of a technical bounce, especially with the technical indicators on the chart, specifically the 50-week moving average that is getting very close.
What might change my analysis here is if the price starts to stabilize without bouncing back before reaching the 50-week moving average or the bottom of this pivot point at 503.
One of these two levels must be reached, and it must happen sooner rather than later for this bouncing back to begin. Otherwise, lateral consolidation above the support level could actually lead to further declines.
Therefore, the timing of this is extremely important. I want to see more selling followed by an imminent bounce on the SMH index.
这个频道对 $SMH 的历次判断
Verified Investing 在这只股票上共 30 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。