$SMH · Verified Investing · 2026-11-05
SMH未像通常那样反弹，而是直接跌破50日移动均线，显示抛售压力沉重；427.94枢轴是短期可能的下行目标，不过RSI为26.03，技术性反弹可能重新测试484.15附近的已跌破趋势线。
逐段跳播
接下来看SMH，各位，这让我有点意外，正如我们昨天在周线时间框架上讨论的那样。各位看这条蓝色的50移动平均线。我原本预计会在这个位置出现反弹，因为这种情况很少见。你可以看到图表上最近的一个例子，当我们从一个过度延展的位置穿过20均线进入50均线时，获得了反弹。
你可以看到，大多数时候都是如此。即使这次波动没那么大，我们直接穿过20均线进入50均线，仍然从那个区域反弹，从20均线一路下挫直接跌入50均线，然后穿过它。这说明市场上有大量抛售压力。
现在，你可以清楚地看到我画出来并谈到的那个枢轴，就在42794，它可能是这轮抛售压力的短期目标位，但我要提醒你，并请你回看屏幕底部的RSI，26.03，各位。这告诉我，任何时候我们都可能看到技术性反弹，把我们带回重新测试这条现已跌破的下降趋势线和跌破的上升趋势线。几乎就像X标记了位置，就在484和15。
Next up into the SMH, guys, this threw me for a little bit of a loop as we talked about yesterday on the weekly time frame. Look at this 50 moving average guys in blue. I was anticipating a bounce at this location because there are very few occasions.
You can just see back here in the chart the most recent example when we've moved from an extended point through the 20 into the 50 and receive a bounce. You can see that that's the case most every time.
Even when this wasn't that big of a move, we moved right through the 20 into the 50 and still bounced off of that range coming from the 20 as high as we are plunging straight down into the 50 and then moving through it.
That is a lot of selling pressure in the markets. Now, you can cleanly see that pivot that I uh drew out and talked about right there at 42794 could be the near-term destination for this selling pressure, but I remind you and point you back down to the RSI at the bottom of the screen, 26.03, 03 guys.
That tells me at any given moment we can see a technical bounce that could take us back up to retest this now broken declining trend line and broken inclining trend line. Almost like an X marks the spot right here at 484 and.15.
这个频道对 $SMH 的历次判断
Verified Investing 在这只股票上共 29 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。