SNDK为卖出标的；由大宗存储芯片价格临时飙升驱动的增长不可持续。
逐段跳播
现在，各位，我们从Morning Star推荐卖出的第一只股票是SanDisk。它的数据看起来几乎不真实。营收增长了372%，毛利率高达84%，而一年前仅为26%。各位，毛利率意味着他们每多卖出一件产品，每收入一美元，其中84美分直接进入税前净利润，扣除一般费用之前。与一年前相比，这个比例是26%。这是巨大的。
And now, folks, the first stock we recommend selling from Morning Star is SanDisk. Its figures seem almost unreal. Revenues rose by 372% with a staggering gross margin of 84%, up from just 26% a year ago.
Guys, gross margin means that for every additional unit they sell, and for every dollar that comes in, 84 cents of that goes directly into net profit before taxes and general expenses.
Compared to a year ago, the percentage was 26%. This is enormous.
那么，为什么Morning Star说它应该被避开？好，先看乐观的观点。人工智能正在导致存储需求的爆发。仅其数据中心业务就在一个季度内翻了一番。SanDisk已经锁定了长期协议，覆盖了明年约一半的产量，以及后年约三分之二的产量，以使其销售更加稳定。
So why does Morning Star say it should be avoided? Okay, here's the optimistic viewpoint first. Artificial intelligence is leading to an explosion in demand for storage. Its data center activity alone doubled in just one quarter.
SanDisk has secured long-term deals covering about half of next year's production and about two-thirds of the production the year after that to make its sales more stable.
然而，悲观的前景正是它成为抛售股的原因。其近期增长中，每三美元就有两美元来自价格上涨，而不是来自卖出更多产品。这类存储是商品，历史告诉我们，当供应赶上需求时，价格和市场利润率可能以惊人的速度崩溃。
维持这样的利润率非常困难。注意这一点；它的消费业务本季度实际上下降了32%。因此，并非公司的每个部分都在蓬勃发展。
However, the pessimistic outlook is precisely the reason why it is a sell-off stock. Two out of every three dollars of its recent growth came from higher prices, not from selling more products.
This type of memory is a commodity, and history tells us that when supply catches up with demand, prices and market margins can collapse with astonishing speed. It is very difficult to maintain such margins.
Note this; its consumer business actually declined by 32% this quarter. Therefore, not every part of the company is thriving.
那么，让我们来看看这个。各位，一家价值2810亿美元的公司，公司的价值实际上低于其市场价值，这意味着他们的现金多于债务。他们去年实现了115亿美元的自由现金流，而前五年为25亿美元。资本回报率巨大。仅去年一年就达44.5%。
So, let's take a look at that. Guys, a company worth $281 billion, the company's value is actually less than its market value, which means they have more cash than debt. They achieved $11.5 billion in free cash flow last year, compared to $2.5 billion for the previous five years.
Huge returns on capital. 44.5 percent last year alone.
各位，但看看这个利润率。过去十年每年21%，过去五年24%，去年56%。你必须问自己这是否可持续。这确实是一个值得问的问题。
Guys, but look at this profit margin. 21% annually over the past ten years, 24% for the past five years, and 56% last year. You have to ask yourself if this is sustainable. It is certainly a question worth asking.
让我们来看看这八大支柱。就像Broadcom一样，他们增发了股票，我不为此责怪他们，因为他们以疯狂的倍数出售。5年市盈率和5年市自由现金流比率绝对是“缺陷”信号。
Let's take a look at the eight pillars. Just like Broadcom, they issued additional shares and I don't blame them for that because they sell at insane multiples. The 5-year price-to-earnings ratio and the 5-year price-to-free cash flow ratio are definitely a "fault" sign.
让我们看看分析师的预期。嗯，看来分析师认为这家公司的利润正在飙升。从每股212到450。各位，在这里20倍的市盈率下，如果这发生，公司的股价将达到9100美元。这是一个巨大的数字，尤其是考虑到股价现在是多少？今天1800？
Let's check the analysts' estimates. Well, it seems that analysts believe this company's profits are skyrocketing. From 212 to 450 per share. Guys, at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20 here, this would make the company's stock price $9,100 if it happens.
That's a huge number, especially considering how much the share price is? 1800 today?
营收增长呢？有趣的是，它只翻了一番。但他们的利润增长如此之多，营收又是如何翻番的？他们假设这个利润率将保持不变。那可能会发生。问题是，你愿意押注于此吗？
What about revenue growth? What's interesting is that it only doubles. But how were they able to double their revenues while profits increased so much? They assume that this margin will remain the same.
That might happen. The question is, are you willing to bet on that?
那么，让我们打开股票分析器，看看我之前的假设。现在，各位，我按照Broadcom可能应该做的方式做了。我进行了10年分析。我对营收增长的假设是-5%、10%和25%。各位，这将会有一个非常宽的价格区间。
准备好这次旅程吧。我使用了15%、25%和40%的利润率。所以，正如你所看到的，我假设回归到他们的五年平均水平。然后，从现在起10年后的盈利倍数是17、20和23。我的回报率是9.5%。
我按下了分析按钮。嘿，各位，看看这个价格区间。低端170，高端5400，中间960。
So, let's open up our stock analyzer and take a look at my previous assumptions. Now, guys, I did it the way Broadcom probably should have done it. I conducted a 10-year analysis.
My assumptions for revenue growth are -5, 10, and 25%. This will have a very wide range of prices, guys. Just get ready for this trip. I used a profit margin of 15%, 25%, and 40%.
So, as you can see, I assumed a return to their five-year average. Then, the earnings multiple after 10 years from now is 17, 20, and 23. And my return is 9.5 percent. I pressed the analyze button.
Hey guys, look at this price range. 170 on the low side, 5400 on the high side, and 960 in the middle.
所以各位，如果我假设我所有最乐观的假设都正确，这家公司基本上是一笔诱人的交易。这也许是向未知的一跃。这并不意味着它不可能发生。但如果你投资每一家公司都假设它是最好的，你很可能会表现不佳。
So guys, this company is basically a tempting deal if I assume all my top assumptions are correct. This is perhaps a leap into the unknown. This does not mean that it cannot happen.
But if you invest in every company assuming it's the best, you're likely to end up underperforming.
现在，在我们完成对Darden的分析之前，考虑一下SanDisk，其营收增长了372%。这正是那种让人们以错误的价格急于买入的事情。
Now, before we finish our analysis of Darden, consider SanDisk with its revenues up by 372%. This is exactly the kind of thing that makes people rush to buy at the wrong price.
这个频道对 $SNDK 的历次判断
Everything Money 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。