SNDK近期的利润激增被视为阶段性高点而非新常态，由此带来的估值不确定性过高，使其成为一块“极难下注的筹码”。
逐段跳播
其中一家公司SanDisk的股价上涨了超过650%。你没有听错。
Shares of one of them, SanDisk, rose by more than 650%. You are not hearing wrong.
SanDisk的利润率达到了71%。这些数字在两年前看来简直是不可能的。
SanDisk's profit margin reached 71%. These figures would have seemed impossible just two years ago .
一位分析师为SanDisk设定的目标价为2,400美元。
One analyst set a target price for SanDisk at $2,400.
SanDisk和Western Digital的股价在强劲的财报发布后也大幅下跌，因为好的业绩并不足以让所有人满意。
Shares of SanDisk and Western Digital also fell sharply after strong earnings results, because the good results were not enough to satisfy everyone.
AI专用内存在一段时间内仍将稀缺，但让SanDisk股价大涨650%的NAND闪存，可能会在2027年底前最先出现供应充裕。
AI-specific memory will remain scarce for a while, but the NAND flash memory that made SanDisk's stock jump 650% could be the first to see an abundance by late 2027.
涨幅最大的SanDisk和Micron，其股价仅为明年预期盈利的7到8倍市盈率。各位，这听起来像是一笔难以置信的划算买卖，不是吗？错了。这个低价格是基于已经见顶的利润。利润之所以暴涨，是因为临时性内存疯狂且不切实际的价格。
你还记得那些达到71%和86%的利润率吗？这几乎可以肯定是一个暂时的峰值，而不是新的常态。
Shares of SanDisk and Micron, which saw the biggest jump, traded at a price-to-earnings ratio of only 7 to 8 times their projected earnings for next year. Guys, this sounds like an unbelievable deal, doesn't it?
mistake. This low price is based on profits that have peaked. Profits have ballooned due to the crazy and unrealistic prices of temporary memory. Do you remember those profit margins that reached 71% and 86%?
This is almost certainly a temporary peak, not the new normal.
好，各位，现在来看SanDisk。正如我一直说的，我不看股价来判断公司的价值，我看的是市值。这是公司的价格，2,800亿美元。它是全部流通股与股价的乘积。接下来，我来看可信的企业价值。
它告诉我的是市值加上债务减去现金。基本上就像这样：“如果我想完全买下这家公司，不承担债务、账上也不留现金，这就是我要付的钱。”各位，看到公司的价值低于其市值真的很好，而我们这里正是这种情况。
这是资产负债表强劲的绝佳信号。接下来，这里简单提一句。看看那火箭般的资本回报率。这表明公司质量很高，因为它在投入的资金上实现了高回报。这太棒了。接下来，看看现金流。去年是115亿。
五年平均是24.4亿。所以，你可以看到，在去年之前，他们的平均自由现金流大约是5亿美元。因此，这家公司一飞冲天了。但如果你指望这种情况持续下去，而它却没有发生，那代价可能非常高昂。
因为看看五年的平均自由现金流率，115。所以，如果它回到五年平均水平，而这个水平仍然高于他们三四年前所达到的，那你就会遇到麻烦。接下来，看看这些利润率。过去十年每年21%，过去五年24%，去年56%。
各位，每次我看到这个，我都会说：“我的天啊。”是什么能让他们的利润相比十年平均水平几乎翻了三倍？这是一个巨大的数字，尤其是结合所有这些营收增长来看。太惊人了，各位。这很棒，但同样，如果你押注这种快速增长会持续下去，这总是让我担心。
好，让我们来看看八大支柱，看看我们应该问哪些问题。很好。因此，流通股在增加。我不怪他们。如果他们认为自己的股票被高估了，我就会发行大量股票来产生现金，因为给瘾君子他们想要的东西更好。
现在，记住，五年的市盈率和自由现金流率也说明不了什么，因为盈利和自由现金流增长得太多了。如果你相信这是一个永久性的水平，并且他们会从这里继续增长，那就忽略这两项。那就忽略它们，因为那有什么关系呢？
这里重要的是他们从现在起会做什么。当然，净利润很高，营收很高，现金流很高，债务非常低，资本回报率在改善。所以再说一次，各位，如果你相信他们处于一个稳定的水平，这听起来很棒。让我们看看分析师对这家公司未来的看法。
嗯，看来分析师们相信这是一个永久性的水平。看看这个增长，每股收益从2.11美元到4.56美元。各位，在4.56美元的价格上，如果你应用20倍的市盈率，那意味着这只股票值9,000美元。
一股值9,000美元。嗯，当然，这听起来很棒。关于营收，这里的问题是什么？这是我发现有趣的地方。49、58，然后降到56，现在正朝着1,000亿美元迈进。他们是在这里投入大量工厂运营吗？
我不知道，但这是很多需要被指望上的增长。这可能吗？当然可能。这可能吗？这才是我们应该问自己的问题。
Okay guys, here's SanDisk. As I always say, I don't look at the stock price to determine the value of the company. I'm looking at the market value. This is the company's price, $280 billion .
It is the product of all outstanding shares and the share price. Next, I go to the trusted Enterprise Value. This tells me the market value plus debts minus cash. Basically, it's like: "If I wanted to buy this company completely without debt and without cash in the bank, this is what I would pay."
Guys, it's really good to see the value of the company less than its market value, and that's what we have here. That's a great sign of a strong balance sheet. Next, a quick note here.
Look at the rocket-like return on capital. This is an indication that the company is of high quality , as it achieves high returns on the money invested in it. This is wonderful.
Next, look at the cash flow. Last year, 11.5 billion. The 5-year average is 2.44 billion. So, you can see here that prior to last year, their average free cash flow was around half a billion dollars .
Therefore, this company has skyrocketed. But if you are counting on this to continue and it doesn't happen, it could be very costly. Because look at the average free cash flow rate for 5 years, 115.
So, if it goes back to the 5-year average, which is still higher than what they achieved 3 or 4 years ago, then you're going to have a problem. Next, look at these profit margins. 21% annually for the last 10 years, 24% for the last 5 , and 56% last year.
Guys, every time I see this, I say, "Oh my God." What could cause their profits to nearly triple compared to the 10-year average? That's an enormous number, especially when combined with all this revenue growth.
It's amazing, guys. It's great, but again, if you're betting on this rapid growth continuing , it always worries me. Okay, let's take a look at the eight pillars to see what questions we should be asking.
Good. Therefore, the outstanding shares are increasing. I don't blame them. If they think their stock is overpriced, I will issue lots of shares to generate cash, because it is better to give addicts what they want.
Now, remember that the 5-year price-to-earnings ratio and free cash flow rate are also not telling because of how much earnings and free cash flow have increased. If you believe this is a permanent level and that they will grow from here, ignore these two things.
So ignore them , because what does it matter? What matters here is what they will do from now on. And of course, net income is high, revenues are high, cash flow is high, debt is very low, and returns on capital are improving.
So again, guys, this sounds great if you believe they are at a consistent level. Let's see what analysts think about this company in the future. Well, it seems that analysts believe this is a permanent level.
Look at this growth, from $2.11 to $4.56 in earnings per share. Guys, at a price of $4.56, if you apply a P/E ratio of 20, that means a stock worth $9,000. A share worth $9,000.
Well, of course it sounds great. Regarding revenue, what's the issue here? This is what I find interesting. 49, 58 , then it dropped to 56, and now it's heading towards $100 billion.
Are they bringing a lot of factories into service here? I don't know, but that's a lot of growth to be counted on. Is this possible? certainly. Is this possible? This is the question we should be asking ourselves.
好，各位，我们到了。我们现在的目标是用我们的股票分析工具来分析SanDisk。现在，各位，使用股票分析工具时，我们会为我们想研究的每家公司做出低、中、高三种假设。对于SanDisk，我的低影响假设是营收将在未来十年下降。
我的高假设是这些营收将继续爆炸式增长。各位，你会看到一个非常宽的价值区间。这让像这样营收和利润出现巨大跃升的公司很难分析。要得出它们未来将实现什么，一个真实的数字非常困难。正如Warren Buffett所说：“如果我无法合理估算这家公司在未来十年将实现什么，我就走开。”
“这是一堆非常难判断的东西。”就我而言，这就是这家公司的情况。但这并不意味着我不应该分析它、看一看它。以下是我所做的假设。我设定了未来十年每年-5%的低增长，以及10%和25%的营收增长。
各位，你会惊讶于这些数字有多高。接下来是利润率。我输入了15%、25%和40%。是的，他们最近达到了56%，但我假设会略有下降。接下来，十年后我应该给这家公司分配多少市盈率？嗯，他们的资本回报率在改善，资产负债表很棒，而且他们显然是这个市场的领导者，所以我设了17、20和23。
现在，你可能会想：“好，Paul，你从哪里得出这个的？”各位，我总是从标普500指数15或16、也许17的历史平均水平开始。我会问：“这家公司比标普指数中的平均公司更好吗？”如果你说是，我就会设定更高的市盈率。
如果我说不是，我就会设定更低的市盈率。我不会坐下来就说：“这是一家更好的公司，所以我给它50倍的利润。”但我仍然会说：“等一下，这是对未来十年的预测。”最后，我的内在价值回报率是9.5%。
这不是我期望的回报。它只是一个问题：“如果这家公司达到市场回报，它的价值会是多少？”每个人期望的回报都会不同。你的回报会和我的不同。为什么？因为我的情况与你的完全不同。你与我和其他任何人所处的情况都完全不同。
所以，就本视频而言，我想澄清：“基于我的假设，我所看到的内在价值是多少？”那么，按下分析按钮。股价目前是1,800美元。嘿，各位，看看这个。我有一个低价170，一个高价5,400，以及一个平均价965。这大概是我见过的最大区间了。
Okay guys, here we are . Our goal now is to run our stock analysis tool on SanDisk. Now, folks, when using a stock analysis tool, we make low, medium, and high assumptions for each company we want to study.
For SanDisk, my low-impact assumption is that revenues will decline for the next ten years. My high assumption is that these revenues will continue to grow explosively. Guys, you'll see a very wide range of values.
This makes it difficult for companies like these that have seen a huge jump in revenues and profits. It is very difficult to get a real figure for what they will achieve in the future.
As Warren Buffett says, "If I can't reasonably estimate what the company will achieve over the next ten years , I walk away." "It's a very difficult pile ." As far as I'm concerned, this is the situation with this company.
But that doesn't mean I shouldn't analyze it and take a look at it. Here are the assumptions I made. I have set low growth of -5 % per annum for the next ten years , and 10% and 25% as revenue growth.
Guys , you'll be amazed at how high these numbers are. Next, the profit margin. I put in 15%, 25% and 40%. Yes , they recently achieved 56%, but I assume a slight decline. Next, what price-to-earnings ratio should I allocate to this company after 10 years?
Well, their capital returns are improving , their balance sheet is great, and they're clearly leaders in this market, so I put 17, 20, and 23. Now, you might be wondering, "Okay, Paul, where did you get that from?"
Guys, I always start with the historical average of the S&P 500 index of 15 or 16, maybe 17 . I ask: "Is this company better than the average company in the S&P index?" If you say yes, I will set a higher price-to-earnings ratio.
If I say no, I will set a lower price-to-earnings ratio. I don't sit down and say, "It's a better company , so I'll give it 50 times the profits." But I still say: "Wait a minute, this is a prediction for the next ten years ."
Finally, my intrinsic value return rate is 9.5%. This is not the return I'm hoping for . It is simply a question: "What would be the value of this company if it matched the market return?"
Everyone will have a different desired return. Your return will be different from mine. Why? Because my situation is completely different from yours. You are in a completely different situation than me and anyone else.
So, for the purposes of this video, I want to clarify : "What is the intrinsic value that I see based on my assumptions?" So, press the analyze button. The share price is currently $1800 .
Hey guys, look at this. I have a low price at 170, a high price at 5400, and an average price at 965. This is probably the biggest margin I've ever seen.
正如Warren Buffett所说：“如果我无法合理估算这家公司在未来十年将实现什么，我就走开。”“这是一堆非常难判断的东西。”就我而言，这就是这家公司的情况。
As Warren Buffett says, "If I can't reasonably estimate what the company will achieve over the next ten years, I walk away." "It's a very difficult pile". As far as I'm concerned, this is the situation with this company.
这对我来说意味着，如果他们在未来十年损失5%的营收，其价值今天大约是每股170美元。如果他们实现约10%的增长，价值将约为1,000美元，而如果他们取得出色的成功，则会是5,400美元。
What this means to me is that if they lose 5% of their revenue for the next ten years, its value would be about $170 per share today. If they achieve growth of approximately 10%, the value will be around $1,000, and if they achieve outstanding success, it will be $5,400.
你应该问自己的问题是：这一切是否值得？如果有80%的概率会发生，你会毫不犹豫地去做。如果有80%的概率会发生，你会像躲避瘟疫一样避开它。这就是投资的本质：坐下来问自己，“这些事情发生的概率有多大？”
当然，我们并不知道，但我要告诉你这一点：当有一些公司的收入和利润基于一种新的供需关系而增长得非常迅速时，我总是感到不安。
The question you should ask yourself is: Is it all worth it ? If there is an 80% chance of it happening, you will do it without hesitation. If there is an 80% chance of it happening, you will avoid it like you would avoid the plague.
This is the essence of investing: to sit and ask yourself, "What are the chances of these things happening?" Of course, we don't know, but I'll tell you this: when there are companies whose revenues and profits have grown very rapidly based on a new kind of supply and demand, I always feel apprehensive.
当你看到像SanDisk这样一只今年已上涨650%的股票，电视上所有人都在喊它会继续上涨时，对你应该支付的价格有更清晰的认识，你能获得什么价值？
When you look at a stock like SanDisk, which has risen 650% this year, with everyone on TV shouting that it will continue to rise, what value would you gain from having more clarity about the price you should pay?
这个频道对 $SNDK 的历次判断
Everything Money 在这只股票上共 2 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。