SanDisk 值得买入：NAND/SSD 的 AI 需求加上近23%的下跌，使市盈率接近6倍，比行业低70%以上；中国市场的抛售误读了 CXMT——它生产的是 DRAM，而非 NAND。销售额增长超过370%，利润率接近85%，940亿美元的合同收入为长期提供保护，即便2029年供应正常化仍不确定。
逐段跳播
我们先从首选标的 SanDisk 说起，其股票代码是 SNDK。要理解这个机会为何存在，首先必须理解它在人工智能体系中的位置。
We begin with our first choice, SanDisk, its stock market symbol is SNDK. To understand why this opportunity exists, one must first understand its position within the artificial intelligence system.
坦率地说，我认为许多个人投资者都犯了同样的错误，就是把所有类型的存储芯片混为一谈。但实际上，SanDisk 是一家专注于 NAND 闪存和 SSD 硬盘的公司。
Frankly, I think many individual investors make the same mistake of grouping all types of memory together. But in reality, SanDisk is a company that specializes in NAND flash memory and SSD hard drives.
简而言之，我们有这些庞大的 AI 数据存储库，其中包含以极快速度喂给 AI 模型的 PB 级训练数据。这套基础设施完全基于 SSD 硬盘，比如 SanDisk 提供的那些。
In short, we have these massive repositories of AI data, which contain petabytes of training data that AI models are fed with at lightning speed . This infrastructure is entirely based on SSD drives, such as those offered by SanDisk.
然而，尽管它对这套人工智能基础设施至关重要，其股价在过去一个月里却大幅下跌。公司市值已经蒸发了近 23%，较峰值已下跌近一半。
However, despite its crucial importance to this artificial intelligence infrastructure, its stock price has fallen sharply over the past month. The company has already lost nearly 23% of its value, and its value has fallen by almost half since its peak.
这导致其估值跌至历史最低水平之一，预期市盈率仅为 6，比行业平均水平低 70% 以上，而预期市销增长比仅为 0.2，同样比行业平均水平低 86%。
This has led to its valuation falling to one of its lowest levels ever, with an expected price-to-earnings ratio of just 6, more than 70% lower than the sector average, and a price-to-growth ratio of just 0.2, also 86% lower than the sector average.
这个估值低得令人惊讶。再说一次，这次下跌很大程度上源于我们之前谈到的传统周期性恐慌，以及来自中国的关于新存储公司构成威胁的消息越来越多。简而言之，市场看到有关中国在存储领域竞争的头条新闻，就恐慌了，并开始抛售整个板块的股票。
It's astonishing how low this rating is. Again, much of this decline is due to the traditional cyclical panic we talked about earlier, as well as the increasing news coming out of China about new memory companies that pose a threat.
In short, the market saw headlines talking about China's competition in the memory sector, panicked, and began selling off shares in the entire sector.
但重要的是：这些新兴威胁中最突出的是名为 CXMT 的公司，它开发 DRAM 芯片。但 SanDisk 根本不生产 DRAM 芯片。SanDisk 生产的是 NAND 闪存。
But here's the important thing: the most prominent of these emerging threats is a company called CXMT, which develops DRAM chips. But SanDisk does not manufacture DRAM chips at all. SanDisk manufactures NAND flash memory .
看它最新的财报，我们发现其产品需求仍然非常高。销售额同比增长超过 370%，主要受数据中心收入推动，该业务增长近 1300%，而边缘计算板块也增长了近 400%。利润率也从一年前的 26% 升至近 85%，而每股收益从仅 29 美分跃升至每股 39 美元以上。考虑到公司所实现的增长规模，这确实令人惊叹。
Looking at its latest earnings, we find that the demand for its products remains very high. Sales increased by more than 370% year-on-year, driven mainly by data center revenues which saw tremendous growth of nearly 1300%, while the edge computing sector also rose by nearly 400%.
Profit margins also rose from 26% a year ago to nearly 85%, while earnings per share jumped from just 29 cents to more than $39 per share. It is truly amazing considering the scale of growth the company has achieved .
最重要的是，SanDisk 如何通过以预定价格确保大客户的忠诚度来降低未来的风险。换句话说，无论行业如何波动，SanDisk 都坚持其当前的高价，但这是为了未来。结果是锁定了 940 亿美元的高价最低合同收入。
这是一笔巨大的资产，即使未来价格开始下跌，他们也可以长期依靠。
Most importantly, how SanDisk reduces the risks to its future by ensuring the loyalty of major customers at predetermined prices. In other words, regardless of sector fluctuations, SanDisk is holding onto its current high prices, but for the future.
The result is securing a minimum contracted revenue of $94 billion at high prices. This is a huge asset they can rely on in the long term, even if prices start to fall in the future.
得益于此，他们得以大量回购自家股票，已经花费了 45 亿美元，此外还有 15 亿美元专门用于未来的回购操作。即使展望 2029 年，分析师预测届时供应水平将恢复正常（这一点尚不确定），SanDisk 仍将实现 570 亿美元的销售额。
作为对比，过去三年他们的平均销售额仅约 60 亿至 70 亿美元。也就是说，这个数字比那高出约 500 亿美元。目前，他们的平均利润率不到 30%，但将升至 80%。他们的平均净利润为负，但届时将从这项收入中产生 370 亿美元。
不过，市盈率将从 14 以上降至 5 左右。这些确实是极其出色的估值。
Thanks to this, they were able to repurchase large quantities of their shares , having already spent $4.5 billion, in addition to $1.5 billion earmarked for future repurchase operations.
Even looking ahead to 2029, when analysts predict supply levels will return to normal, which is uncertain, SanDisk will still generate $57 billion in sales. For comparison, their average sales have been only about $6 to $7 billion over the past three years.
That is, this figure is about $50 billion higher than that. Currently, their average profit margins are less than 30%, but they will rise to 80%. Their average net income is negative, but they will now generate $37 billion from this income.
However, the price-to-earnings ratio will drop from over 14 to around 5. These are truly exceptional values.
换句话说，即使未来可能出现下滑，得益于巨大的增长和更低的股价，这家公司及其股票仍将遥遥领先，处境远好于 AI 热潮之前，而且估值也低得多。
In other words, even with a possible future decline, this company and its stock will remain far ahead, in a much better position than they were before the AI boom, and at a much lower valuation, thanks to tremendous growth and a lower stock price.
这确实令人惊叹，这就是为什么我觉得市场仍未意识到这么多机会，也是为什么我对 SanDisk 印象如此深刻。
It's truly amazing, and that's why I feel the market is still unaware of so many of these opportunities, and that's why I'm so impressed with SanDisk.