$SNDK · Schwab Network · 2026-10-30
SNDK 若能守住约 1,200 美元则可能反弹，只有在该水平之上才看好明年及以后的长线趋势，但跌破 1,000 美元将有风险，下一个主要成交量节点在约 650 美元。业绩超预期但预期更高，消费需求疲软是隐忧；股价位于 200 日均线下方，周线 RSI 走弱且 MACD 为负，三年成交量大多集中在 69.24 美元，因此成交量并未支撑上涨。拆股不改变基本面，但增加了散户 FOMO 的担忧。
逐段跳播
SanDisk 承受着显著压力，尽管利润超出预期，仍下跌约10.5%。我的意思是，他们在数据中心实现了61%的增长，我想是这样。他们的利润率超过了85%。我的意思是，尽管有这些抛售，你还喜欢 SanDisk 吗？
SanDisk is under significant pressure, and is still down about 10.5% despite exceeding profit expectations. I mean, they've achieved 61 % growth, I think, in the data center. Their profit margins exceeded 85%.
I mean, do you still love SanDisk despite the sales?
是的，而且我为突然问你的那个问题向你道歉，Marley。如果我们经常互相发短信，你就会知道我是那种不在乎错别字的人。我只写手机听写出来的内容。我发给你的是 SNDK；那是手机的错误，不是我的错。
我指的是 SanDisk。所以，我为这个问题让你吃惊而道歉。被忽略的短信。但是，至于 SanDisk，是的，我说的正是我的意思。你知道，她在每个领域都是一股力量。我真的相信她是我谈到的那种避险交易模式的受害者。
我的意思是，看看那边那张图。在过去18个月里，任何时候买入这只股票并赚到不错的利润，都非常困难。显然，如果你追在顶部，情况就不一样了，但它仍然是市面上最强的图表之一。你知道，这只股票是我去年在“三巨头”中最常提到的股票之一。
它经历了非常强劲的上涨。我喜欢它的一点，就像 Amazon 一样，是我认为我们这里有一个非常明确的跌破水平，大约在当前价格附近，大约1200。所以，在那个水平之上，我认为我们有很好的反弹潜力。
在那个水平之下，情况会变得糟糕。然后再加上他们刚刚宣布了拆股。嗯，你知道，那不会改变任何东西。拆股常常让小交易者非常困惑。他们变得极其兴奋。我的意思是，事实是有很多小交易者。我和其中许多人合作。
因为我去年一整年都在谈论 SanDisk，他们一直在说：“哦 Tim，股价是500美元、600美元、700美元、800美元或900美元。我同意你的看法，但你知道，我的账户很小。
我真的没法交易它。”所以，我们在拆股的股票上经常看到这种情况，拆股只是降低了每股成本，并不改变市值或其他任何东西，但它让许多小交易者能够交易，而他们原本根本无法交易超过，你知道，零碎股或一两股 SanDisk。
所以，这在某种程度上打开了领域，并制造了那种错失恐惧（FOMO）交易。而且听着，我们知道，回到这件事的开头，纳斯达克现在将对机构采用23小时交易。我的意思是，自疫情以来，市场已经变成由小交易者驱动。
所以，当你把图表与长期交易活动以及那种让股票对推动市场的人可及的分割结合起来，只要它能守住1200，我就喜欢明年及以后的这个趋势。
Yes, and I apologize for the sudden question I asked you, Marley. If we text each other a lot, you'll know that I'm one of those people who don't care about typos . I only write what the phone dictates.
I sent you SNDK; that was a phone error, not my fault. I meant SanDisk. So, I apologize for surprising you with this question. Neglected text messages. But, as for Sandisk, yes, I mean exactly what I said.
You know, she's a force in every field . I truly believe she is a victim of that risk-averse trading model I spoke about. I mean, look at that graph over there . It was very difficult not to buy this stock at any time during the past 18 months and not make good profits.
Obviously , if you chase the top, the story will be different, but it remains one of the strongest charts out there. You know, this stock was among the most frequently mentioned by me in "The Big Three" last year.
It has seen a very strong rise. What I like about it, just like Amazon , is that I think we have a very clear breakdown level here, around the current price, around 1200. So, above that level, I think we have a good potential for a bounce.
Below that level, the situation will become bad. Then add to that the fact that they have just announced a stock split. Um, you know, that doesn't change anything . Stock splits often confuse small traders a lot.
They become extremely excited. I mean, the truth is there are a lot of small traders. I work with many of them. As I've been talking about SanDisk all last year, they've been saying, "Oh Tim, the stock price is $500, $600, $700, $800, or $900.
I agree with you, but you know , my account is small. I can't really trade it." So, we've seen this a lot with stocks that split their shares, which just reduces the cost per share and doesn't change the market value or anything, but it makes trading accessible to a lot of small traders who simply couldn't trade more than, you know , fractional shares or one or two shares of SanDisk.
So, this opens up the field somewhat and creates that kind of fear of missing out (FOMO) trading. And listen, we know that, going back to the beginning of this, Nasdaq will now adopt 23-hour trading for institutions.
I mean, since Covid, the market has become driven by small traders. So, when you combine the chart with the long-term trading activity and that segmentation that makes the stock available to those who move the market, as long as it can hold at 1200, I like that trend for next year and beyond.
Tim，如果你交易的是那个而不是 SanDisk，而我们谈论的是 SNDQ，也就是 SanDisk 的每日双倍反向基金，那么以这波走势，你现在的利润会是21.2%。
Tim, if you had traded that instead of SanDisk and we were talking about SNDQ, which is SanDisk's double- per-day inverse fund, your profits would now be 21.2 % with this move.
忘掉你刚才说的一切。那不重要。我们回到“SanDisk”。我只是想指出，FNDX 今天上涨了21%，但我们说的是 SanDisk，它下跌了10.5%。它不是那种每日双倍杠杆的反向基金。
不过，我们来看看这只股票，KG，因为这些数字确实很好。预期本来更高，但有人担心这只股票面临消费者需求疲软的问题。那么，你从技术形态上看到了什么？哪些价位比较突出？
Forget everything you just said. It doesn't matter. Let's go back to "SanDisk". I just wanted to point out that FNDX is up 21% today, but we're talking about SanDisk, which is down 10.5%.
It is not an inverse fund with double daily leverage . But, let's look at this stock, KG, because these numbers were undeniably good . Expectations were higher, but there are some concerns about weak consumer demand for this name.
I mean, what do you see in the technical setup here? What levels stand out to you?
是的，这只股票目前有点让人困惑。那我们就只看技术面。你大概可以自己得出结论，因为我可以给你一个上行情景，也可以给你一个下行情景。很明显，这只股票在过去一年左右涨得非常快。我是说，这只股票的价格从大约183美元涨到了大约2350美元。
对于一家存储行业的公司来说，这种走势的可持续性极为罕见。我们看到这只股票同时创下历史新高和新低。一旦它到达1900美元的水平，你就开始看到大量波动和震荡，然后市场未能维持动能，跌破了20日和50日移动均线。
现在，我们在相对接近200日移动均线的位置找到了一些支撑。比如说在1000美元左右。我会说，如果你看好这只股票，这就是你的分界线。所以，你可能还有一定的回落空间。但如果跌破1000美元关口，情况就变得有风险了。
我们目睹了一种趋势反转。你可以把它称为更偏向旗形的形态。它未能攀升到20日和50日移动均线上方并站稳。我们已经跌破了支撑位。目前，我们的交易价格低于200日移动均线。1000美元这个水平必须守住。
我之所以说这有点复杂，原因如下。今年大部分时间里，我一直在观察这只股票出现看跌背离。相对强弱指数（RSI）在形成更低的高点，而股价却在形成更高的高点。我们现在正看到这轮回调。不幸的是，实际上现在如果你看10月份，RSI 正在形成更高的低点，这使它变成了看涨背离，这让判断更加困难。
MACD 指标，我会说，已经开始企稳，但我们假设它在这里获得了一些正面动能。你可以看到那里有一个交叉。日线图上，这只股票似乎正朝1000美元水平靠近。周线图上，50周移动均线应该会守住。
再说一次，为了方便大家，就说1000美元。但如果我们跌破那个水平，你就要看下一个大的成交量节点，它大约在650美元。这就是这只股票的问题所在。如果你看三年期周线图，这只股票的大部分成交量仍然在69.24美元。
所以价格走势是向上的，但成交量实际上并没有支撑这个价格结构。在这里你会有点担心这轮下跌可能会继续。周线图上的相对强弱指数（RSI）正在录得更低的高点和更低的低点。MACD 正在形成看跌形态，12周期指数移动平均线正在下跌。1000美元这个水平必须守住。
Yes, this stock is a bit confusing here. So, let's just look at the technical aspects. You can probably reach your own conclusion here, because I can give you an upward scenario, and I can give you a downward scenario.
It's clear that the stock has been rising very rapidly over the past year or so. I mean, you're talking about a stock whose price went up from about $183 to about $2,350. I mean, the sustainability of this move for a company in the memory sector is extremely rare.
We have seen the stock reach record highs and lows simultaneously. Once it reached the $1900 level, you started to see a lot of volatility and a lot of fluctuations, and then the market failed to maintain its momentum, breaking the 20-day and 50-day moving average levels.
Now, we have found some support relatively close to the 200-day moving average. Let's say around $1000. I would say that this is your dividing line if you are optimistic about the stock.
So, you probably still have some room to land here. But if you break the $1,000 barrier, then things become risky. We have witnessed a kind of reversal of the trend. You could call it a bit more of a flag pattern.
It was unable to climb above the 20-day and 50-day moving averages and stabilize above them. We have broken the support level. Right now, we are trading below the 200-day moving average.
The $1000 level must hold. Here's why I say this is a little complicated. I have experienced this bearish divergence for the greater part of this year for the stock. We were making lower peaks in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) while the stock was making higher peaks.
We are seeing this correction now. Unfortunately, right now, in fact, if you look at October, we are making higher lows in the Relative Strength Index, which now makes it a bullish divergence, which makes it more difficult.
The MACD indicator, I would say, has started to stabilize, but let's assume it has gained some positive momentum here. You can see an intersection there. The stock appears to be heading towards the $1,000 level on the daily chart.
On the weekly chart, the 50-week moving average should hold. Again, let's say a thousand dollars to make it easier for everyone. But if we break through that level, you are looking at the next big volume node which lies at around $650.
This is the problem with this stock. If you look at the three- year weekly chart, the majority of the trading volume for this name is still at $69.24. So the price movement was trending upwards, but the volume did not actually support this price structure.
Here you feel a little worried that this decline might continue. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the weekly chart is recording lower highs and lower lows. The MACD is forming negatively with the 12-period exponential moving average falling The $1000 level must hold.
这就是这只股票的问题所在。如果你看三年期周线图，这只股票的大部分成交量仍然在69.24美元。所以价格走势是向上的，但成交量实际上并没有支撑这个价格结构。
This is the problem with this stock. If you look at the three-year weekly chart, the majority of the trading volume for this name is still at $69.24. So the price movement was trending upwards, but the volume did not actually support this price structure.
周线图上的相对强弱指数（RSI）正在录得更低的高点和更低的低点。MACD 正在形成看跌形态，12周期指数移动平均线跌破了26周期均线。
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the weekly chart is recording lower highs and lower lows. The MACD is forming negatively with the 12-period exponential moving average falling below the 26-period average.
这只股票上涨并不是因为拆股，拆股不会改变基本面，但散户很喜欢它。这也引起了一点担忧。这种事通常不会发生。通常因为拆股，我们会看到小幅反弹。今天，情况完全不是这样。
This stock is not rising because of a stock split, which does not change the fundamentals, but retail traders love it. This also raises a little concern. It's the kind of thing that doesn't usually happen.
We usually get a slight bounce because of that split. Today, this is simply not the case.
是的，今天情况不是这样。现在看 SanDisk，我们下跌了大约11%。
Yes, that is not the case today. We are down approximately 11% when looking at SanDisk right now.
这个频道对 $SNDK 的历次判断
Schwab Network 在这只股票上共 5 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。