$SNDK · Parkev Tatevosian, CFA · 2026-11-09
SNDK 值得买入，在目前较低的价位上，信心从低上调至中等：该股单日下跌 22%、一个月内下跌 53% 后，现报 $806，而他给出的合理价值为 $1,808，前瞻市盈率仅 2.8。业绩表现强劲（营收 $11B，增长 378%；经营性现金流 $5.7B），而市场此前只计入了短期繁荣；他预测 2027 财年自由现金流为 $31B，此后增长将非常缓慢。
逐段跳播
对人工智能股票来说，这是惨烈的一天，包括 SanDisk，其股价单日跌幅超过22%。更糟的是，SanDisk 的股价上个月下跌了53%，尽管该公司一周前公布了非常强劲的财务业绩。
It was a bloody day for artificial intelligence stocks, including SanDisk, whose shares fell by more than 22% in a single day. Even worse, SanDisk's stock fell by 53% last month, even though the company announced its financial results a week ago and they were very strong.
该公司实现了110亿美元的收入，与去年同期相比增长了378%。该公司产生了57亿美元的运营现金流。这意味着运营现金流与销售额的比率超过50%，而且在本周开始以及中期选举结果出来之前，估值就已经很便宜了。
The company generated revenues of $11 billion, an increase of 378% compared to the same period last year. The company generated operating cash flows of $5.7 billion. This means an operating cash flow to sales ratio exceeding 50%, and the valuation was already cheap before the start of this week and the results of the midterm elections.
因此，一种理论是，民主党控制众议院、参议院以及许多州长职位，再加上关于数据中心的公投，将减缓数据中心的建设，从而减少对 SanDisk 产品和服务的需求。
Therefore, one theory is that the Democrats' control of the House of Representatives, the Senate, and many governorships, in addition to referendums on data centers, will slow down their construction, and consequently reduce demand for SanDisk products and services.
这就是今天人工智能股票遭到大规模抛售的原因，尤其是 SanDisk 的股票。那么，我对这些走势的看法是什么？这是否使 SanDisk 股票在今天成为买入机会，还是说，在我们获得更多关于这次选举结果的信息之前，这是抛售该股票并避开该公司的理由？
This is what is causing the large sell-offs in artificial intelligence stocks today, and in particular in SanDisk stock. So, what is my opinion on these moves? Does this make SanDisk stock a buying opportunity today, or is it a reason to get rid of the stock and avoid the company until we get more information about the results of this election?
我喜欢雅虎财经上这篇文章的结论，该文章讨论了今天 Micron 和 SanDisk 股票的抛售，他们在文中说了以下内容。
I liked the conclusion of this article on Yahoo Finance, which was discussing the sell-off in Micron and SanDisk shares today, where they stated the following.
关于 SanDisk，需要认识到的一点是，其股价本来就已经被低估，而现在更是被过度低估了。它的远期市盈率仅为2.8倍，仅为2.8倍。
One thing to realize about SanDisk is that the stock price was already undervalued, and now it is excessively undervalued. It is trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of only 2.8, only 2.8.
因此，市场并没有按照这些繁荣时期会永远持续下去的方式来给 SanDisk 股票定价。市场对 SanDisk 股票的定价，已经反映了其业务似乎处于短期繁荣之中。
Therefore, the market was not pricing SanDisk stock as if these prosperous times would last forever. The market was already pricing SanDisk's stock in what appeared to be a short-term boom for their business.
最终，它会达到顶峰，然后业务将在那个水平上稳定下来，不会再有新的数据中心建设。
Eventually, it will reach its peak, then business will stabilize at that level and no new data centers will be built.
SanDisk 将通过每隔几年用更新一代的组件替换这些数据中心中安装的旧组件，从现有客户那里获得收入。这就是这只股票所定价的情况。它并没有按照销售额会连续几年持续过度繁荣的方式来定价。
SanDisk will generate revenue from existing customers by replacing older components installed in these data centers with newer, next-generation components every few years. This is what was priced for this stock.
It was not priced as if sales were going to continue to boom excessively for several consecutive years.
事实上，在我对 SanDisk 的自由现金流模型中，我预计业务将在2027和2028财年繁荣，然后从那时起增长将大幅放缓。
In fact, in my free cash flow model for SanDisk, I expect the business to boom in fiscal years 2027 and 2028, and then for growth to slow considerably from that point onward.
我估计自由现金流将从2026年的80亿美元增长到2027财年的310亿美元，然后再次良好增长到380亿美元，在……之后，从那时起增长非常、非常缓慢，对吧？
I estimate free cash flow will grow from $8 billion in 2026 to $31 billion in fiscal year 2027, then grow well again to $38 billion in...and after that, very, very slow growth from that point onwards, right?
它从380亿增长到410亿，然后从那时起，增长更慢，甚至从410亿到424亿，然后到439亿，然后到……
It grows from 38 billion to 41 billion, and then from that point onwards, slower growth even from 41 billion to 42.4, then to 43.9, then to...
所以思路是，从那时起增长非常缓慢，因为 SanDisk 通过替换需求和创新来产生收入，这意味着与每隔几年将被替换的组件世代相比，平均售价更高，业务就是这样增长的。
So the idea is, very slow growth from that point onwards as SanDisk generates revenue from replacement demand and innovation, which means higher average selling prices compared to the generation of components that will be replaced every few years, and that's how the business grows.
而且，即便采用 SanDisk 从2029年开始的乐观、或者说不那么乐观的增长预测，我算出的该公司公允价值估计仍是1,808美元。
And even with SanDisk's optimistic, or rather not very optimistic, growth projections starting in 2029, the fair value estimate for the company that I came up with is $1,808.
在今天大幅下跌之后，当前市场价格是806美元，所以在股价在极短时间内下跌约50%之后，它已被显著低估。因此，我全年都把 SanDisk 股票评为买入机会，并在8月11日确认了这一点，所以看到股价跌得这么厉害，我很失望。但今天我提高了对这一买入评级的信心程度。
The current market price after today's significant drop is $806, so it is significantly undervalued after the stock price fell by about 50% in a very short time. Therefore, I rated SanDisk stock as a buy opportunity all year, and confirmed that on August 11, so I am disappointed to see the stock price decline so drastically.
But today I raise my level of conviction regarding this purchase rating.
这一整年我都把它评为“买入”，但在价格远高于今天的时候，我对这个买入评级的信心程度较低、把握不大。但今天，在这些更低的价位上，我把信心程度提高到中等，并重申截至2026年11月5日的这一买入评级。
Throughout the year I rated it as a "buy" but I was, uh, with a low level of confidence and low conviction in that buy rating when prices were much higher than they are today. But today, at these lower levels, I am raising my conviction to medium and reaffirming this buy rating as of November 5, 2026.
观察点
这个频道对 $SNDK 的历次判断
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 在这只股票上共 2 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。