SOFI 是具吸引力的买入标的,因其营收增长强劲(41%),且在估值倍数压缩后估值具吸引力(市净率约 1.8)。
逐段跳播
我想先讲的第一只是 SoFi,股价实际上下跌了 44%。但如果你看他们的营收,过去一年营收实际上增长了 41%。所以到底发生了什么?
The first one that I wanted to go over is SoFi shares are actually down 44%. But if you look at their revenue, the revenue is actually up 41% over the past year. So what in the world is going?
看 SoFi 的第一件事是,他们在业务的两端都实现了惊人的营收增长,包括贷款端。这是传统银行放贷,你发放更多个人贷款,还有学生贷款。这两样基本上是他们成长起来的业务。他们最近更多地转向了抵押贷款,但这只是一门贷款生意。就这么简单。
And the first thing to look at with SoFi is that they've had phenomenal revenue growth on both the lending side of the business. This is traditional bank lending where you're giving out more personal loans, also student loans.
Those are kind of the two things that they've grown up on. They've moved more into mortgages lately, but it's just a loan business. Simple as that.
另一大块是金融服务。他们大幅增长了金融服务。这将是来自信用卡的费用,他们的贷款平台业务也归入这里。所以,是收费型业务多得多的业务。
The other big piece is financial services. So, they've grown financial services significantly. This is going to be fees from credit cards and their loan platform business also ends up in this. So, much more feebased businesses.
过去一年他们营收增长中的最大缺陷就是这块业务,即技术平台业务。当初的想法是,我们要为自己开发这项技术,那为什么不把它授权给其他公司使用呢?问题在于,很多其他银行也在做这件事,这是一个竞争非常激烈的领域,而且他们在2025年年底失去了一个巨大的客户Chime。
所以这就是该业务营收开始下滑的原因。这项业务并没有像很多投资者以为的那样成为增长型业务。
The big flaw in their revenue growth over the past year is this segment right here, the technology platform business. What the idea behind this was is, hey, we're going to develop this technology for ourselves.
Why don't we then license it out to other companies? The problem is a lot of other banks also do this very competitive space and they lost a huge customer that was chime late in 2025.
So that's why that revenue has started to decline. This has just not been the growth business that a lot of investors thought that it was going to be.
SoFi身上发生的另一件事就是,他们只是经历了多重估值倍数的压缩。这意味着,对一只银行股来说最重要的市盈率、市销率、市净率,已经从2025年9月时的高达约五倍回落。那正是该股大约见顶的时期。
10月、11月时是四倍。在这段时间里,这一倍数已经下跌了超过50%。现在大约是1.8倍。
The other thing that happened to SoFi is they've just simply had mar multiple compression. What that means is that their price to earnings multiple, price to sales multiple, price to book multiple is going to be really the most important for a banking stock has gone from as high as about five in September 2025.
That was when the stock kind of peaked right around that period of time. You know, it was four in November, October. That has fallen by more than 50% over this period of time. It's now about 1.8.
你看看其他大型银行,它们的市净率略高于两倍。所以,该股的估值现在正变得对投资者相当有吸引力。这是一家增长惊人的公司。这正是它区别于许多竞争对手的地方。而我认为这一逻辑的真正核心在于,这是一家数字优先的公司。
大多数传统银行都会有网点,会有成千上万、数以万计的员工。SoFi则要数字化得多,能够在美国乃至最终在全球范围内比那些公司更大程度地扩展这项业务。这正是他们得以实现业务增长的方式。
You look at other big banks are trading for a little bit in excess of two times their book value. So shares are now getting to the point where they're a pretty compelling valuation for investors.
And this is a phenomenal growth company. That's what really differentiates it from a lot of its competitors. And I think the real core of that thesis to me is that this is a digital first company.
Most traditional banks are going to have branches. They're going to have thousands, tens of thousands of people who are working for them. SoFi is going to be much more digital, be able to scale that business around the US and eventually around the world much more than those companies.
That's really how they've been able to grow their business.
对他们来说也有很多唾手可得的增长机会。他们的大多数客户仍然只持有一款产品。所以你进来,比如说,拿了一笔1万美元的个人贷款。接下来他们想让你加办一张信用卡,想让你开一个银行账户,想让你开一个股票经纪账户。
随着客户越来越多地这样做,这真的会产生复利效应,因为他们的会员基数自2023年以来以35%的复合增长率增长。现在有1580万会员。我可以预见,十年后这个数字轻松超过1亿会员。就像我说的,更多会员使用更多产品。这将意味着SoFi更多的增长。
There's lots of lowhanging fruit for them as well. Most of their customers still only have about one product. So you go in, you get, let's say, a personal loan for $10,000. The next thing you do is they want you to add a credit card.
They want you to open a bank account. They want you to open a stock brokerage account. As customers do that more, this is really going to compound because their member base has compounded at a 35% compound growth rate since 2023.
Now 15.8 million members. I could see that being easily over 100 million members a decade from now. Like I said, more members using more products. That's going to mean more growth for SoFi.
所以,SoFi在过去几年实现了惊人的增长,过去12个月增长了40%。我认为这将是一家会持续复利增长的公司,而你现在买入的估值相当有吸引力。
So, phenomenal growth for SoFi over the past couple of years, 40% over the trailing 12 months. I think this is going to be a company that's going to compound and you're getting at a pretty compelling valuation right now.
这个频道对 $SOFI 的历次判断
Asymmetric Investing by Travis Hoium 在这只股票上共 2 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。