SoFi 年初至今下跌约 42%，已从高估转为低估：约 33 倍市盈率（预期约 21-22 倍），考虑到两年内利润年增长 30%，并不算太贵，不过 Galileo 已连续两个季度下滑，可能正在触底。说话者持有该股，理由是经营杠杆高和国际扩张。
逐段跳播
其中一些今天表现不佳，比如 SoFi，它的股价自年初以来已经下跌了40%。
Some of them are not performing well today, such as SoFi, for example, whose stock has fallen by 40% since the beginning of the year.
我认为 SoFi 是一家非常有意思的公司，因为它在许多金融科技公司中被视为热门股，但它的估值从历史来看非常好。
I think SoFi is a really interesting company, because it is considered a hot stock in many financial technology companies, but its valuation is historically very good.
它在所有合适的领域都在增长。诚然，它的技术解决方案遇到了一些困难，但我们希望看到贷款业务的增长，以及金融服务的增长。这正是该公司目前实现显著增长的领域。
It grows in all appropriate areas. It is true that its technical solutions have faced some difficulties, but we want to see growth in lending, and growth in financial services.
This is the area in which the company is experiencing significant growth today.
是的，SoFi 目前的估值约为205亿美元，当前市盈率为33倍，预期市盈率约为21倍或22倍。有人可能会说，这个数字对一家银行来说偏高。我也同意，对于一家实现个位数增长的典型银行来说，这确实偏高。
但对于一家未来两年利润预计每年增长30%、营收和每股收益增长更快的公司来说，我不认为它的价格太高。
Yes, SoFi is currently valued at around $20.5 billion, with a current price-to-earnings ratio of 33x and a projected ratio of approximately 21x or 22x. Some might say that this figure is high for a bank.
And I agree that it is high for a typical bank achieving single-digit growth. But for a company whose profit is expected to grow by 30% annually over the next two years, with revenue and earnings per share growing at a faster pace, I don't think its price is too high.
如前所述，Galileo 技术平台在过去两个季度的业务出现了下滑。我们可能正在看到它触底，或者我们可能在上个季度已经看到了最低点。但贷款部门和其他金融服务表现非常出色。
As mentioned, the Galileo technology platform has experienced a decline in its business over the past two quarters. We may be seeing it reach its lowest point, or we may have already seen that in the last quarter.
But the lending sector and other financial services are performing excellently.
然而，该股正面临压力，自年初以来已下跌42%。事实上，这使该股回到了一个更合理的估值水平。在给大多数银行股估值时，通常会考虑市净率，目前它约为1.9。你现在可以以大致相当于其账面价值的价格买入银行股。
However, the stock is under pressure, having fallen 42% since the beginning of the year. In fact, this brings the stock back to a more sensible valuation. The price-to-book ratio is usually considered when valuing most bank stocks, and it is currently around 1.9.
You can now buy bank shares at a price that is roughly equivalent to their book value.
所以，取决于银行股的类型，这个价格可能有点高，也可能有点低，但并不是我们在2025年底所预期的账面价值的四倍。
So, depending on the type of bank stock, this price may be a little high or a little low , but it's not four times the book value as we were expecting in late 2025.
我认为实际发生的情况是，市场从高估这只股票转变为略微低估它。值得注意的是，首席执行官 Anthony Noto 善于利用这些股票被高估的机会。他会卖出股票，将其投放到公开市场，然后用这笔钱来扩张公司。
I think what actually happened is that the market moved from overvaluing the stock to undervaluing it a little. It is worth noting that Anthony Noto , the CEO, was adept at exploiting these opportunities where the stock was overvalued .
He would sell shares, put them on the public market, and then use the money to expand the company.
所以，如果我们看看他们过去一年左右在贷款业务上的扩张，就会发现，这是由他们现在有更多可用资金来做这项贷款业务所推动的。他们之所以有这些资金，是因为他们在更高的估值下卖出了股票。
So, if we look at their expansion in lending over the past year or so, we will find that it is driven by the fact that they now have more capital available to do this lending. They had this capital because they sold shares at a higher valuation.
如你所知，存在一种平衡，而这就是 SoFi 股票正在发生的情况。它从被低估变为被高估。当股票被低估时，Noto 通常会自己买入股票。而当股票被高估时，他会通过公司向公众卖出股票，以便公司能够继续增长。
As you know, there is a kind of balance, and that's what's happening with SoFi stock. It goes from being undervalued to being overvalued. Noto usually buys the shares himself when the stock is undervalued .
And when it is overvalued , it sells shares, you know, to the public through the company so that it can continue to grow.
这更像是一场持续不断的挣扎，但我认为，这家公司从核心来看仍在稳健经营，而最终，这才是会影响股价的因素。除了年初时可能被高估之外，你认为这只股票为什么下跌了42%？这仅仅与宏观经济有关吗？
是不是因为他们进入2026年时预期利率会被下调？而现在我们看到的是加息，尽管今天的展望比年初要好。这纯粹是宏观经济问题吗——一旦宏观经济形势好转，股票就会好转？还是说市场只是想要更多的增长？
It's more like a constant struggle, but I think the company , at its core, continues to perform well, and ultimately, that's what will affect the share price. Why do you think the stock has fallen by 42%, other than that it may have been overvalued at the beginning of the year?
Is it only related to macroeconomics? Is it because they entered 2026 expecting interest rates to be lowered? Now we have an interest rate hike, although the outlook today is better than it was at the beginning of the year.
Is this a purely macroeconomic problem, and once the macroeconomic picture improves , the stock will improve, or does the market simply want more growth?
这可能是两者共同作用的结果。我认为技术平台这一块也是问题的一部分，不是吗？看他们的财务数据，我们发现有三个板块：贷款板块、技术平台板块和金融服务板块。其中一个板块表现不佳，而这并不是我们这些在两三年前或四年前买入他们股票的人所期待的那个平台。
It might be a combination of both. I think the technical platform aspect is part of the problem, isn't it? Looking at their financial data, we find three sectors: the lending sector, the technology platform sector, and the financial services sector .
One of these sectors is suffering from poor performance, and it is not the platform that we, who bought their shares two, three, or four years ago, expected.
所以，如果排除这个板块，我们会说：“好吧，我们不再有三条增长路径，而只有两条了。”这可能意味着这只股票需要略微重新估值。
So, if we exclude this sector, we say: "Well, we no longer have three growth paths, but only two." This may warrant a slight revaluation of the stock.
但另一方面，你说得对，利率给这家公司带来的压力比给其他公司更大，因为管理层曾坚称他们预期今年会降息。你可以参考他们年初的预测；他们经营公司的方式总体上非常保守。但他们进入这一年时说：“我们将会看到，两到三次或四次降息。这对我们的业务将是极大的利好。”
But the other thing, you're right, interest rates put more pressure on this company than others, because management was adamant that it expected interest rate cuts this year. You can refer to their projections at the beginning of the year; they are generally very conservative in the way they run the company.
But they were going into the year saying, "We're going to see, you know, two, three or four interest rate cuts. That's going to be great for our business."
现在，我们看到的是利率上升。我不认为这是世界末日，因为利率是银行一直在应对的东西。银行通常擅长将贷款到期日与贷款规模和融资成本相匹配。所以，这不会对他们的利润产生负面影响，但从市场角度来看，就好像他们在说：“你原本预期降息，结果却是加息。
所以，也许我们应该对股价重新评估一下。”我真的相信这是最重要的事情。
Now, we are seeing an increase in interest rates. I don't think it's the end of the world, because interest rates are something banks deal with constantly. Banks are usually adept at matching loan maturity dates with loan size and financing costs.
So, it won't negatively affect their profits , but from a market perspective, it's as if they're saying, "You were expecting a cut, but there's an increase. So, maybe we should reassess the stock price a bit."
I truly believe this is the most important thing that happens.
是的，我同意。再次让我感到意外的是他们预期的恶化。起初，预期完全没有变化。所以在我看来，那是可以接受的。但随后展望恶化了，而营收预测却被上调了。因此，很明显，在这种情况下，他们仍然能够表现得非常好。
Yes, I agree. Once again, what surprised me was the deterioration of their expectations. Initially, expectations didn't change at all . So, in my opinion, that was acceptable. But then the outlook worsened, and the revenue forecasts were revised upwards.
Therefore, it is clear that in such circumstances, they can still perform very well.
今年最后一个季度会发生什么还有待观察，我相信我们会在10月底公布。我们到时候看会发生什么。
It remains to be seen what will happen in the last quarter of the year, which I believe we will announce at the end of October. We'll see what happens there.
还有一件事，我认为投资者在考虑这两家公司时应该注意，也是我同时持有这两家公司股票的原因，那就是它们的经营风格与大多数传统竞争对手不同，对吧？我买入股票时，我想最初是在2023年，原因之一是我看到银行网点在我所在的地区不断扩张。
我住在美国中西部。这些金融科技解决方案在不断改进，这让我觉得有些奇怪。
Well, another thing I think investors should consider regarding these two companies, and the reason I own shares in both of them, is that their business style is different from most of their traditional competitors, isn't that right ?
When I bought shares, I think it was in 2023 initially, one of the reasons was that I saw bank branches spreading in my area. I live in the American Midwest. It seemed strange to me that these financial technology solutions were constantly improving.
如果你是一家传统银行，想要发展业务，你就需要建一栋实体大楼，并雇用员工在里面工作。而SoFi和Robinhood走的却是完全相反的路。因此，它们具有很高的经营杠杆。这就是为什么你可能会看到很高的市盈率。
If you are a traditional bank and want to grow your business, you need to build an actual building and hire employees to work in it. SoFi and Robinhood, however, take a completely opposite path.
As a result, they have a high operational leverage. This is why you may see a high price-to-earnings ratio .
但如果我们看看SoFi和Robinhood，正如我们在过去五年所看到的，它们的营业利润率——我认为这是需要关注的关键因素——持续上升，因为它们能够利用自己在技术上的所有投入。每获取一个新客户的成本并不高，而且正如你提到的，它们的增长并不局限于美国；它们也可以向国际扩张。
But if we look at SoFi and Robinhood, as we have seen over the past five years, their operating profit margins— I think this is the key factor to focus on— continue to rise, because they are able to take advantage of all their investments in technology.
Each new customer is not very expensive, and as you mentioned, their growth is not limited to the United States ; they can expand internationally as well.
所以，未来有很多机会。这有点类似于Netflix进入电视市场。你可能对本地新闻拥有本地垄断，但这只会局限于你所在的地区。银行服务也是如此。现在，Netflix进入市场说：“我们不会局限于美国，而是要遍布全世界。”
这几乎是同一个概念。所以，我认为这才是真正的优势所在。
So, there are many opportunities in the future. This is somewhat similar , you know , to Netflix entering the television market. You may have a local monopoly on local news, but this will be limited to your region only.
The same applies to banking services. Now, Netflix enters the market and says: "We will not be limited to the United States , but will be everywhere in the world." It's almost the same concept. So, I think that's the real advantage here.
这就是为什么这些公司仍然拥有巨大的潜力，因为它们无需建设庞大的实体基础设施，就能变得比大多数竞争对手大得多。
This is why these companies still have enormous potential, because they can become much larger than most of their competitors without having to build a huge physical infrastructure.
我同意。我认为这就是我同时持有这两只股票的原因。
I agree. I think that's why I own both of them.
这个频道对 $SOFI 的历次判断
The Motley Fool 在这只股票上共 4 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。