$SOFI

SoFi 在 15 美元以下被低估,而合理价值为 27-29 美元;时机未知,疲弱的股价并未反映其强劲的平台。低成本获客、高客户终身价值、交叉销售以及 Galileo 应能让它在 5-10 年内跑赢许多股票,包括部分 AI 股;短期走势难以预测。

看涨他说的是几年内
《Every Stock I'm Buying in This Pullback (5 New Buys)》
Invest with Henry发布 2026-10-17 · 12 段内容
16:24/ —打开原视频

逐段跳播

12 段内容
16:2422:08

好,让我们进入第四支箭。我在频道上谈了很多这只股票,我对 SoFi 股票有点失望。我谈论 SoFi 好几年了,在它非常便宜的时候买入。我一直投资它,直到它涨到二十多美元。现在,我感到有些痛苦,我不会撒谎。

我遵循“轮动”策略,卖出期权。实际上,我很高兴,但 SoFi 的价格比我预期的要低一些。这不是我的主要关注点,但确实有点痛苦。但在我看来,尽管过去感到痛苦,我认为这只是一笔未实现亏损,不是吗?

未实现亏损就像从费城到纽约的旅行,你买了一张火车票,然后丢了。你不会为损失后悔,你的决定仍然成立,你需要买一张新票,好吗?所以,实际上,我的平均投资成本非常低,因为在我的社区里,我卖出期权并从中获得大量收入。

因此,平均成本对我来说实际上相当高。你每个月把平均成本降低大约一美元,因为你每次卖出期权都能赚一美元。这就是不断降低平均成本的方式。所以,你知道,如果 SoFi 六个月没有出现,我的投资成本会降低大约 6 美元。

所以,从技术上讲,我在 SoFi 的平均投资成本是个位数,我的社区运作良好。

Okay, let's move on to the fourth arrow. I've talked a lot about this stock on the channel, and I'm a little disappointed with SoFi stock. I've talked about SoFi for years, and I bought it when it was very cheap.

I continued to invest in it until it reached its late twenties. Right now, I feel some pain, I won't lie. I follow the "wheel" strategy, and I sell options. Actually, I'm very happy, but the price of SoFi is a little lower than I expected.

This is not a major focus for me, but it is a little painful. But from my point of view now, despite the pain I felt in the past, I see this as just an unrealized loss, isn't it?

An unrealized loss is like a trip from Philadelphia to New York, where you bought a train ticket and then lost it. You won't regret the loss, your decision still stands, and you'll need to buy a new ticket, okay?

So, in fact , my average investment cost is very low because in my community I sell options and make a large income from them. Therefore, the average cost is actually quite high for me .

You have reduced the average cost by approximately one dollar each month, because you earn a dollar each time you sell options. This is what constantly reduces the average cost.

So , you know, if SoFi hadn't existed for six months, I would have reduced my investment cost by approximately $6. So, technically speaking , my average investment cost in SoFi is in the single digits, and my community is doing well.

不过,如果你刚进入市场,或者以非常高的价格买入了 SoFi 股票,又没有遵循我教的那套策略,那我们就来聊聊 SoFi 目前的情况。SoFi 最初是靠学生贷款再融资为人所知的,但如今它正在打造一个综合性的金融平台。

这正是我喜欢它的地方。这家公司实际上非常强,但股价并没有反映出这一点。说实话,我不知道股价要多久才能达到我认为合理的价格,也就是每股 27 到 29 美元之间。这让我感到安心,因为在等待期间,卖出期权对我来说是有利可图的。

However, if you are new to the market or bought SoFi shares at a very high price and did not follow the strategy I teach, let's talk about SoFi's current situation. SoFi initially became known for refinancing student loans, but today it is creating a comprehensive financial platform.

That's what I like about it. The company is actually very strong , but the stock price does not reflect that. To be honest, I do n't know how long it will take for the stock to reach the price I consider appropriate, which is between $27 and $29 per share.

This is reassuring to me because selling options was profitable for me during the waiting period .

我喜欢 SoFi 的地方在于,你可以在它的系统里完成存款、借款、贷款再融资、投资、使用信用卡、办理按揭,以及管理财务生活的方方面面,而不必离开它的体系。这就是我认为 SoFi 的优势所在。它和 Amazon 很像,不是吗?

What I like about SoFi is the ability to bank, borrow, refinance loans, invest, use credit cards, get a mortgage , and manage various aspects of your financial life without having to leave its system.

This is what I consider SoFi's strength. It's similar to Amazon, isn't it?

现在,很明显,这只股票的表现并不令人满意。但同样,任何想赚快钱或追求短期回报的人,我是说,短期内没有人能准确预测市场。任何声称能做到这一点的人都是在撒谎;这根本不可能,不是吗?

所以,我真正喜欢 SoFi 的地方在于,它的价格不到 15 美元,我觉得这低得离谱。我找不到词来形容这只股票有多便宜。

Now, it is clear that the stock's performance has not been satisfactory. But also, anyone looking for quick gains or short-term returns, I mean, in the short term, no one can accurately predict the market.

Anyone who claims to be able to do that is lying; it's impossible, isn't it? So, what I really like about SoFi is that it's priced at less than $15, which I find ridiculously absurd.

I ca n't find words to describe how cheap the stock is.

SoFi 花很多钱去获取一个新会员,而这对他们来说成本很低。一旦这个人被获取,就成为他们系统的一部分,目标就是随着时间推移向他们销售更多金融产品。而它在这方面取得了显著的成功。

比如,有人最初可能只是来 SoFi 开一个支票账户,但后来开了投资账户,接着办了信用卡、个人贷款、按揭,甚至在 SoFi 上交易二级期权。因此,长期客户价值(LTV)远高于 SoFi 前期收到的金额,因为它以低成本获取客户,而当前的账户并不会给它带来巨大的利润。

但一旦他们投资了按揭或类似产品,这种关系就会变得非常长期。

SoFi spends a lot of money to acquire a new member, which costs them very little . Once this person is acquired, they become part of their system, and the goal is to sell them additional financial products over time.

And she achieved remarkable success in that. For example , someone might initially come to SoFi to open a checking account, but later open an investment account, then get a credit card, a personal loan, a mortgage , and even trade Level 2 options on SoFi.

Therefore, the long-term customer value (LTV) is much higher than the amount SoFi receives upfront, because it acquires a customer at a low cost, and the current account does not generate huge profits for it .

But once they invest in a mortgage or something similar, the relationship becomes very long-term .

因此,我相信在未来五到十年里,SoFi 的表现会超过许多股票,包括一些 AI 股票,因为其中一些会崩盘。说实话,人工智能的每个领域并不都会成功,不是吗?所以,当我看 SoFi 时,我看到它未来的稳定性比市场上一些被媒体大肆炒作的 AI 股票更强。

Therefore, I believe SoFi will outperform many stocks over the next five to ten years, including some AI stocks , because some of them will crash. Honestly, not every sector of artificial intelligence will be successful, will it?

Therefore, when I look at SoFi, I see that it has greater future stability than some AI stocks that have a lot of media hype in the market.

无论如何,当我看 SoFi 时,这意味着与客户的关系——也就是我前面在讲长期客户价值(LTV)时提到的——会随着时间推移变得极其有价值,而不需要再次获取同一个人,这一点非常重要,因为它会反映在它的财务报表中。

所以,当你不得不不断投放广告来吸引新客户时,成本是非常高的,不是吗?通常,广告支出回报率(ROAS)的衡量方式是投入一美元,然后获得不错的回报,你知道,大公司甚至小公司都能做到,回报最高可达三倍,对吧?

所以,当你考虑在 Facebook 或 YouTube 广告或任何其他类型的广告上投入一美元时,如果你能投入一美元得到三美元,那就意味着你可以规模化。SoFi 的数据非常惊人,因为它以极低的成本获取客户,而且拥有巨大的客户终身价值(LTV),这意味着它可以持续获取越来越多的客户。

In any case, when I look at SoFi, it means that the relationship with the customer, which I talked about earlier in relation to Long-Term Customer Value (LTV), becomes extremely valuable over time without needing to acquire the same person again, and this is very important because it will be reflected in its financial statements.

So, when you have to constantly run ads to attract a new customer, it's very expensive, isn't it? Typically, return on advertising expenditure (ROAS) is measured by investing one dollar and then achieving a good return, you know, achieved by large or even small companies, which is a return of up to three times, right?

So, when you look at investing one dollar in Facebook or YouTube ads or any other type of advertising, if you can invest one dollar and get three dollars, that means you can scale.

Well, SoFi has amazing numbers because it acquires customers at a very low cost, and it has a huge lifetime customer value (LTV), which means it can acquire more and more customers continuously.

他们有 SoFi Stadium,我预计他们会在营销上投入巨资,因为营销是任何企业的引擎。不幸的是,公司有没有好产品甚至都不重要。你见过多少次质量很差的产品,但公司却做得很大?

不幸的是,这种情况相当常见。这是因为一切都取决于销售和营销。SoFi 已经认识到了这一点,我相信投资者在市场上看到的,与 SoFi 在长期客户价值(LTV)方面将要做的,之间存在显著的差距。

They have SoFi Stadium, and I expect them to invest huge sums in marketing, as marketing is the engine of any business. Unfortunately, it doesn't even matter whether the company has a good product or not.

How many times have you seen a poor-quality product, but that company is huge? Unfortunately, this happens quite often. That's because it's all about sales and marketing. SoFi has recognized this, and I believe there is a significant discrepancy between what investors see in the market and what SoFi will do with respect to Long-Term Customer Value (LTV).

因此,他们的产品采用率——51% 的新产品是由现有 SoFi 会员解锁的——对我来说是一个非常重要的数字。这只是最重要的数字之一。尽管广告可能整天都在投放,但产品本身的呈现也极其重要。

所以,当你同时拥有这两样东西时,你就得到了一个非常强大的组合。

Therefore, their product adoption rate, with 51% of new products being unlocked by existing SoFi members , is a very important figure for me. This is just one of the most important figures.

Although advertisements may continue throughout the day, the appearance of the product itself is also extremely important. So, when you have both of those things, you get a very powerful combination.

除了客户和消费者服务业务之外,SoFi 还拥有 Galileo 等技术,为其他公司提供金融基础设施。因此,长期假设不仅仅是 SoFi 贷款的增加,而是 SoFi 成为一个规模大得多的金融体系,拥有多种盈利方式,这有助于其会员基础的快速增长。

In addition to its customer and consumer services business, SoFi also owns technologies such as Galileo, which provides financial infrastructure for other companies. Therefore, the long-term hypothesis is not just about increasing SoFi loans , but about SoFi becoming a much larger financial system with multiple ways to generate profit, which contributes to the rapid growth of its membership base.

总之,我们来看看财务数据。那么,在最重要的这个季度,SoFi 实现了约 12 亿美元的调整后净收入,同比增长 40%。该季度净利润约为 1.57 亿美元,而调整后 EBITDA 增长 44%,达到创纪录的 3.58 亿美元。

Anyway, let's move on to the financial data. So , in the most important quarter, SoFi achieved adjusted net revenues of approximately $1.2 billion, a 40 % year-over-year increase.

Net income was approximately $157 million during the quarter, while adjusted EBITDA rose 44% to a record high of $358 million.

现在我们进入技术分析。好了各位,这是 SoFi 的股票图表。SoFi 的股票图表看起来很有意思。这只股票几乎没有什么变化。我是说,在过去六个月左右的时间里,这只股票一直在非常明确的区间内交易,这正是我喜欢 SoFi 的地方,因为我一直在使用 wheel 策略,卖出看跌期权进场,卖出备兑看涨期权出场,看着它上下波动,这很棒。

它是一只非常有利可图、非常适合交易的股票。目前,SoFi 的股价是 15 美元,坦率地说,它看起来正处于最低点。它已经是最低水平了。这几乎是它的最低水平。如果我们看年度图表,我会给你展示这只股票过去一年的位置。

你会注意到这里有一条非常强的规律,一条大约从三月以来就牢固确立的规律。自那以后,这只股票在每股 15 美元的价格上没有经历大幅波动,这非常棒。这对期权卖方来说是个好消息。如果你是股票投资者,你可能会对 SoFi 股票的表现感到沮丧。

如果你是期权卖方,我 YouTube 频道上有一个最近的视频,包含完整的期权卖出课程,有策略和实际的逐步示例,你可以去看。我几天前刚发布的。不过,如果我们看目前关于卖出期权的情况,我们会发现这对 SoFi 股票非常有利。

在每股 15 美元,股价通常不会跌破这个水平。确实它略有下跌,但在过去一年里很少收在每股 15 美元以下。因此,我认为这只股票被低估了。

Now let's move on to technical analysis. Okay guys, here's the SoFi stock chart. The SoFi stock chart looks interesting. The stock saw virtually no change . I mean, for the past six months or so, the stock has been trading within a very defined range , which I like about SoFi because I've been using a wheel strategy, selling put options to enter and covered call options to exit, and seeing ups and downs , which is great .

It was a very profitable and excellent stock to trade. Right now, SoFi's stock is priced at $15, and frankly, it looks like it's at its lowest point. It is already the lowest level.

This is almost its lowest level . If we look at the annual chart, I will show you the stock's position over the past year. You will notice a very strong rule here , a rule that has been firmly established since approximately March.

Since then, the stock has not experienced significant fluctuations at a price of $15 per share, which is excellent. This is great news for options sellers. If you are a stock investor, you may be frustrated with the performance of SoFi stock.

If you are an options seller, and I have a recent video on my YouTube channel that includes a complete course on options selling with strategies and practical step-by-step examples, you can watch it.

I posted it just a few days ago. However, if we look at the current situation regarding the sale of options, we will find that it is very good for SoFi stock. At $15 per share , the share price typically does not fall below this level.

It is true that it has declined slightly, but it has rarely closed below $15 per share over the past year. Therefore, I believe the stock is undervalued .

这个频道对 $SOFI 的历次判断

Invest with Henry 在这只股票上共 8 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。

跨洋听风