$SOFI · Asymmetric Investing by Travis Hoium · 2026-10-27
SOFI 是长期看涨的持仓，仓位约 5%，优于传统银行，因为其纯数字模式避免了大型银行的基础设施成本。长期方向正确：2026 年指引被上调，营收同比增长 44%，2027 年指引为 64 亿美元营收（约 29% 增长）、每股收益 90 美分。在约 16 美元、约 18 倍 2027 年盈利的水平上，对于超过 30% 的增长是合理的，管理层可能超越保守目标。个人贷款违约风险仍然存在，但住房贷款增长以及会员和产品使用应会创造长期价值。
逐段跳播
SoFi 在周二开盘前发布了财报，这份财报有很多值得看好的地方。就在我录制的时候，股价在开盘前刚刚上涨了超过10%。
SoFi released its earnings report before the market opened on Tuesday, and there was a lot to like about the report. As I was recording, the stock price rose more than 10% just before the market opened.
但我想详细讨论一下，我们究竟从这些业绩中了解到了什么。这是一只会在非对称组合中占约5%仓位的股票。所以对 Sophie 来说，这是一个相当大的仓位。
But I want to discuss in detail what exactly we learned from these results. This is a stock that would hold about a 5% position in an asymmetric portfolio. So this is a pretty big position for Sophie.
但这一年表现有点差。你可以从右边的图表看出来。过去一年它下跌了约50%。否则，它本来会是一个大得多的仓位。
But the year was a bit bad. You can see this from the chart on the right. It has decreased by about 50% in the last year. Otherwise, it would have been a much larger position.
但我喜欢 Sofa 现在走的这条路。他们的营收增长持续加快。用户数量在增长，他们使用的产品数量也在增长。所以有很多值得看好的地方，而且他们给出了2027年的指引，据公司管理层在电话会议上说，这真的很独特。
原因是他们现在在业务上获得的透明度比以往高得多。
But I like the path that Sofa is taking now. Their revenue growth continues to increase. The number of users is growing and so is the number of products they are using. So there's a lot to like and they gave 2027 guidance, which was really unique according to the company's management during the conference call.
The reason for this is that they are now getting much more transparency in business than before.
从长期来看，SoFi 是在朝着正确的方向前进吗？我不太关心分析师是否达到了他们做出的季度预测，真正重要的是业务在长期的方向。而我认为一切都指向正确的方向。
Is SoFi moving in the right direction in the long term? I'm not so concerned about whether analysts achieved the quarterly forecasts they made, but rather what matters is the direction of the business in the long term.
And I think everything is pointing in the right direction.
正如我所说，2026年的指引已经上调，营收同比增长了44%，这真的很不寻常。调整后 EBITDA 现在的利润率是34%。这确实是一个非常可观的利润率。
As I said, the 2026 guidance has been raised, revenue has grown 44% year-over-year, which is really extraordinary. Adjusted EBITDA is now at a 34% margin. This is truly a remarkable margin.
我觉得 SoFi 有意思的地方——这也是我持有 SoFi 股票比传统银行股更多的原因——在于它是一家纯数字银行。因此，他们没有大银行那样的基础设施成本或运营费用。这让他们有机会在更大的规模上思考。
What I find interesting about SoFi —and this is why I hold more SoFi shares than traditional bank shares—is that it is a digital-only bank. Therefore, they do not have any infrastructure costs or operating expenses like the big banks.
This gives them the opportunity to think on a larger scale.
想想他们的广告活动，甚至赞助洛杉矶的 SoFi Stadium 这样的项目——这是为了吸引全国范围的受众，而大多数银行其实做不到这一点，至少做不到 SoFi 这样的规模和成本。
If you think about their advertising campaigns, even sponsoring something like SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles— it's an attempt to attract a national audience, which most banks can't really do, at least not at the scale and cost that SoFi is doing.
所以，当你看到他们的“无提示品牌知名度”时，那正是他们想要达到的目标。他们想提高品牌知名度，这样当你在寻找银行产品、信用卡、个人贷款或住房贷款时，首先想到的就是他们的品牌。
So, when you look at their 'unaided brand awareness', that's exactly what they're trying to achieve. They want to increase brand awareness so that when you are looking for a banking product, credit card, personal loan, or home loan, their brand is the one that comes to mind.
就 SoFi 而言，会形成一个庞大的客户漏斗。这将帮助他们扩大会员规模，目前会员数为1700万，自2022年以来以30%的复合年增长率（CAGR）增长。
In the case of SoFi, a large funnel of customers will be created. This will help them grow their membership, which currently stands at 17 million and has grown at a 30% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) since 2022.
我们还看到这项业务有很大的经营杠杆，这与我几年前开始覆盖这家公司时相比是真正的变化。我们已经从亏损走向了惊人的盈利。过去几年复合年增长率为52%。不过这是从一个非常小的基数上来的。所以，你需要稍微谨慎地看待这一点。
We also see a lot of operating leverage in the business, and that's a real change from when I started covering this company a few years ago. We have gone from losses to incredible profits.
There has been a compound annual growth rate of 52% in the last few years. Although it came from a very small base. So, you need to consider this a little carefully.
但通常当公司从负利润率转为正利润率时，这会对股票起到很大的催化作用。
But usually when companies go from negative margins to positive margins, it acts as a big catalyst for stocks.
你可以看到，这是2027年指引的开端，他们预计明年达到64亿美元。我认为这是29%的增长。如果他们能做得比这更好，我不会感到意外。
And you can see this is the beginning of the 2027 guidance, they're expecting $6.4 billion for next year. I think it's a 29% growth. I wouldn't be surprised if they could do better than that.
正如我所说，我现在看的是每股收益90美分。因此，股价目前的交易价格略低于前瞻每股收益的20倍。考虑到这种不寻常的增长率——大多数银行通常做不到——这是一个合理的价格。
And as I said, I'm now looking at 90 cents in earnings per share. Therefore, the shares are trading at a price slightly less than 20 times forward EPS. This is a reasonable price considering the extraordinary growth rate, which is not usually available to most banks.
所以，这些才是业务真正的驱动力：会员数量，以及这些会员正在使用的产品数量。产品可以是贷款，也可以是信用卡。作为一家银行，你想要的是会员使用越来越多的产品。
So, these are the real driving forces of the business. The number of members and the number of products those members are using. So a product could be a loan, it could be a credit card.
As a bank, what you want is for members to use more and more products.
你可以看到，一年前他们每个会员只使用1.47个产品，现在已经增加到1.56个。这个数字仍然相对较低，但SoFi并没有采用许多银行过去用过的那些手段，比如开立支票账户并从储蓄账户存入资金就赠送免费权益。
You can see that a year ago they were using only 1.47 products per member. Now it has increased to 1.56. This is still relatively low, but SoFi doesn't use the same tactics that many banks have used in the past, such as offering free benefits if you open a checking account and deposit money from a savings account.
但你希望看到的是人们更多地使用SoFi平台。所以希望随着时间推移，这个数字能增长到三个、四个或五个产品，因为你希望人们通过SoFi使用支票账户、信用卡、投资账户——全部都在SoFi上完成。
But what you would like to see is people using the Sofi platform more. So hopefully over time it will grow to three, four or five products, because you want people to use checking accounts, credit cards, investment accounts—all through SoFi.
过去几年，他们的收费型收入也大幅增长。这张图展示的是年度营收、年度调整后净利润和收费型收入。他们收费型收入的年化规模约为23亿美元。你可以看到这项占比随时间的变化，2022年是25%，现在达到42%。
它正朝着正确的方向发展，不过与2025年相比略有下降。
They have also increased their fee-based income quite significantly in the last few years. This is a picture of annual revenue, annual adjusted net income, and fee-based income.
They are looking at an annual rate of about $2.3 billion in fee-based revenue. You can see that change over time, which was 25% in 2022. Now it stands at 42%. It is moving in the right direction. Slightly decreased compared to 2025.
但同样，我们希望看到的是向收费型业务转型，从而降低传统贷款业务的风险。好，我们先从贷款或信贷部门说起，因为这里的传统银行风险更高。你可以看到，他们的贷款业务实现了显著增长，同比增长68%。
But again, what we want to see is a move towards a fee-based business that reduces the risk of traditional lending. Okay, let's start with the lending or credit department, because this is where traditional banking risks are higher.
And you can see that they have had significant growth in the lending business, which is 68% year-over-year.
这就是他们融资的原因之一。我记得是在今年早些时候股价较高的时候，也可能是去年年底，但这次融资是以较高的市净率倍数筹集资金，用于发展贷款业务。
That's why they raised capital, which is one of the reasons. I think it was earlier this year when the share price was high. It may have been late last year, but it has been used to grow the lending business by raising capital at a higher price-to-book multiple.
这本来应该具有相对较高的利润率。你可以看到他们在这里有很强的边际贡献，但这自然会增加企业的债务规模。
This is supposed to be a relatively high margin. You can see they have a strong contribution margin here, but that naturally increases the amount of debt for the business.
我喜欢看到的是个人贷款、学生贷款和住房贷款——这三类都在增长。但我在这里尤其喜欢看到的是，住房贷款确实增长得非常显著。2024年，住房贷款余额只有4.9亿美元，而仅第三季度就达到了14亿美元。
Now, what I like to see is personal loans, student loans, and home loans—you're seeing growth in all three categories. But what I like to see here is that home loans are really growing very significantly.
In 2024, there were only $490 million worth of home loans outstanding. Now $1.4 billion in the third quarter alone.
有意思的是，个人贷款的增长实际上还要更快。所以这一点需要记住。他们提到的一点是，核销率实际上已经明显改善。灰色线是个人贷款，你可以再看一下。这正是你作为投资者希望看到的。剔除核销后的个人贷款在中间这条线上，其中包含了一些违约贷款的出售。学生贷款在最下面，它的违约概率相对较低。
Interestingly, personal loans have actually grown even faster than that. So this is something that needs to be kept in mind. Now, one of the things they talked about is that their charge-off rates have actually improved quite significantly.
So, this is the personal loan on the gray line. You can see it again. This is what you want to see as an investor. Personal loans excluding charge-offs, which include the sale of some defaulted loans, are in this middle line.
And student loans are at the bottom. It has a relatively low probability of default.
金融服务。几年前这是增长的主要驱动力，最近的增速已经不如从前。非利息收入从一年前的2.16亿美元增加到2.44亿美元。
Financial services. This was a major driver of growth a few years ago. The recent growth rate is not what it used to be. Non-interest income. This increased to 244 million from 216 million a year ago.
净利息收入主要来自存款和信用卡，达到2.81亿美元，增长率为40%。边际贡献利润约为50%。
Net interest income, mainly generated from deposits and credit cards, reached $281 million, with a growth rate of 40 percent. Contribution profit is about 50 percent.
现在说所谓的“害群之马”或者说业务中薄弱的一面。他们在2025年底超过了Chime。所以现在它按季度在增长，增长幅度不大，略有增长，但由于失去了那一个客户，它逐年都在下降。
And now the so-called black sheep or weak side of the business. They beat Chime at the end of 2025. So it is now increasing on a quarterly basis. It's growing slightly, not by much, but it's been decreasing year after year due to the loss of that one customer.
如果我是SoFi技术平台的投资者，我不会太关注这块业务。他们必须为整体业务而建立它，但从长期来看，它未必会增加收入或增长。
If I were an investor in the SoFi technology platform, I wouldn't pay much attention to this business. They have to create it for the business as a whole, but it's not necessarily going to increase revenue or growth in the long run.
好，最后，这是最重要的部分。我们来看看指引数字，不只是上面给出的2026年，还有2027年。右边看到的是他们之前的，也就是上一季度的指引。如你所见，他们当时预计营收约为48亿美元。
现在他们预计营收为50亿美元，增长超过40%，或者说约40%。
Okay, finally, this is the most important thing. Let's take a look at the guidance numbers, not just for 2026 as given above, but also for 2027. What you see on the right is their previous, i.e. last quarter's guidance.
As you can see, they were expecting revenue of about $4.8 billion. Now they are expecting $5 billion in revenue with more than 40 percent growth or about 40 percent growth.
调整后EBITDA也大幅提高。现在预计增长约57%，每股收益为61美分，比之前的指引高1美分。但同样，这正朝着正确的方向发展。这正是你想看到的。
Adjusted EBITDA has also increased significantly. It is now expected to grow by about 57 percent and earnings per share to be 61 cents, a penny higher than previous guidance. But again, this is moving in the right direction. That's exactly what you want to see.
再说2027年的预测，管理层通常给出的这个预测会略低一些。你可以看到，合并净营收预计增长27%，合并每股收益预计增长48%，达到90美分。
And again, the forecast for 2027, management usually gives this forecast a little lower. You can see that consolidated net revenue is expected to grow by 27% and consolidated earnings per share are expected to increase by 48% to 90 cents.
我录制时，股价大约在16美元，这意味着股价约为2027年盈利的18倍。在我看来，对于一家目前增长超过30%的公司来说，这是一个相当合理的倍数。明年的预测也很可能显示营收增长30%或以上，尽管预测略低于这个水平。
不过，管理层通常会把目标定得较低，然后超额完成得相当不错。
So when I'm recording, the share price is around $16, which means the shares are trading at about 18 times 2027 earnings. In my opinion, this is a pretty reasonable multiple for a company that is currently growing at over 30%.
Next year's forecast is also likely to see revenue grow by 30% or more, although the forecast is slightly lower than that. However, management usually sets targets low and then does a pretty good job of exceeding them.
但我对SoFi看到的情况印象非常深刻。正如我所说，这是我非对称投资组合中持有的股票之一，因为他们的营收增长在持续提升。我们看到了你希望看到的经营杠杆。一切都在朝着正确的方向发展。
But I'm really impressed with what I'm seeing from SoFi. As I said, this is one of the stocks I have in my asymmetric portfolio because they are consistently increasing their revenue growth.
We're seeing the operating leverage that you would want to see. Everything is moving in the right direction.
我肯定要密切关注业务风险。个人贷款存在违约风险，但他们住房贷款数量的增长是积极的。他们可以增加会员数量，以及每位会员持有的产品数量。从长期来看，这才是为投资者创造价值的关键。
I definitely want to keep an eye on business risks. There is a risk of default in personal loans, but the increase in their home loan numbers is positive. They can increase the number of members and the number of products per member.
This is what will create value for investors in the long term.
观察点
这个频道对 $SOFI 的历次判断
Asymmetric Investing by Travis Hoium 在这只股票上共 3 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。