$SOXX · Brian Shannon · 2026-11-06
半导体尚未确认底部：说话者不确定近期低点是否就是最低水平，并认为价格位于下行的 5 日均线下方，仍有进一步下跌的可能。相比 V 形底，他更希望看到真正的投降式抛售，即跌破周一低点并伴随更多卖出。
逐段跳播
现在说半导体，这是一个。我之前一直在说，如果你过去两三周一直关注我，尤其是上周我们面对向下倾斜的20日和50日移动平均线时，我看着它说，我真正想看到的是这里出现一次失败。它会触及这个低点，以及200日移动平均线和年初以来的锚点，跌破500，然后开始转向。
Now, semiconductors, that's one. I was saying, if you've been following me for the last two or three weeks and especially last week when we were facing the downward 20 and 50- day moving averages , I looked at that and said, what I really want to see is a failure here.
It will touch this low, as well as the 200-day moving average and the anchor from the beginning of the year , drop below 500, and then start to turn around.
所以当市场周三这么做时，我在500多一点的位置买入，然后它很快就涨上去了。由于它涨得很快，我决定，好吧，这是一笔日内交易。所以我一直盯着它。也就是说，我原本是在同一个位置买入的。
当它涨到当日成交量加权平均价时，我卖出了四分之一的仓位，然后当它回落到那个低点形成的锚点之下时，我卖出了四分之三的仓位。所以这是一笔好交易。说实话，我赚了不少钱，因为我认为可能到了转向的时候，所以我投入很大。
结果我从这里带着利润出来了。所以整件事都是盈利的，我不必周四早上醒来看到这场灾难。
So when the market did that on Wednesday, I bought at 500 and a bit more and then it went up quickly. Since it was moving up quickly, I decided, well, this is a day trade. So I was keeping an eye on that.
That is, I originally bought it at the same place. When it rose to the daily volume weighted average price, I sold a quarter of the position and then when it fell back below the anchor from that low , I sold three-quarters of the position.
So it was a good trade. To be honest, I made pretty good money because I thought it might be time to turn around, so I made big investments. Instead, I came out of here with a profit.
So the whole thing was profitable and I did n't have to wake up on Thursday morning to see this disaster.
我们把这件事说清楚一点。这是当日 VWAP。这是两日 VWAP。我们正试图企稳。关于市场我说不出更好的话，但既然它位于向下倾斜的5日移动平均线之下，我完全不确定这会是最低点。当我们回看这个向下的锚点或看看其他锚点时，就会清楚还有进一步下跌的潜力。
Let's clarify the matter a bit. This is the daily VWAP. This is a two-day VWAP. We are trying to be stable. I can't say anything better about the market , but since it's below the 5-day downward moving average, I'm not at all sure that this will be the lowest level.
When we look back at this downward anchor or look at other anchors , it becomes clear that there is potential for further declines.
说实话，我期待市场出现真正的恐慌，不是我们通常看到的那种'V'形底，而是跌破周一的低点，周二早盘再有一些抛售，然后我们看到转向的迹象。
Honestly, I'm hoping for a real panic in the market, not a 'V' shaped bottom like we usually see , but a break of Monday's low, some more selling on Tuesday morning, and then we see signs of a turnaround.
这个频道对 $SOXX 的历次判断
Brian Shannon 在这只股票上共 2 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。