SPGI 被低估，其核心业务板块足以支撑当前股价，因此近期下跌构成买入机会。
逐段跳播
S&P Global（代码 SPGI）的股价刚刚创下 52 周新低。过去一年，该股下跌了约 20%，而如果看年初至今的表现，则下跌了约 26%。
Shares of S&P Global, symbol SPGI, have just hit a 52-week low. Over the past year, the stock has fallen by about 20%, and if we look at its performance since the beginning of the year, it has fallen by about 26%.
过去五年，该股回报为负。S&P Global 的每股收入每年都在增长，而且非常稳定，这通常支撑估值溢价。可以看到，过去五年每股收益也大幅增长，每股自由现金流同样如此。
Over the past five years, this stock has delivered negative returns . Revenue per share at S&P Global has grown every year, and is also very stable, which usually justifies a premium in valuation.
We can see that earnings per share have also grown significantly over the past five years, along with free cash flow per share.
这意味着估值倍数已经下降，而对 S&P Global 来说，它确实大幅下降。目前其估值倍数基本处于过去五年来的最低水平。
This means that the valuation multiple has decreased, and for S&P Global, it has certainly decreased significantly. They are now trading essentially at their lowest valuation multiple in the past five years.
作为参考，在过去五年的多个时点，该股的市盈率都超过 30 倍。平均约为 28.5 倍。目前，其估值已更接近市场平均水平，约为 20.9 倍市盈率。
For reference, at multiple points over the past five years, this stock has been trading at more than 30 times earnings. The average was about 28.5 times. Currently, they are much closer to the market average, at around 20.9 times earnings.
如果预计该股近期盈利增速将大幅放缓，有时这可能是合理的。S&P Global 是这种情况吗？这里我们看到的是分析师对未来几年每股收益的平均预期，可以看到这些预测实际上相当强劲。
即便到 2030 年盈利增长预计会放缓，预计的复合年增长率仍约为 11%。每股收益的预期复合年增长率为 11%。
Sometimes this may be justified if the stock is expected to grow its earnings at a much slower rate in the near future. Is this the case for S& P Global? What we'll see here is the average earnings per share estimates from analysts for the next few years, and you can see that the forecasts are actually quite strong.
Even with the expected decline in earnings growth by 2030, the projected compound annual growth rate is approximately 11%. The expected compound annual growth rate for earnings per share is 11%.
这与我们过去几年看到的情况大致相符。利润增长非常强劲，再加上公司收入非常稳定。到这里看一下过去十年的收入增长。是的，增长非常出色，但对许多投资者而言同样重要的是未来现金流的可预测性，而它非常稳定。没有大起大落。
This is roughly in line with what we have seen over the past few years . Profit growth was very strong, coupled with the fact that the company has very stable revenues. Go here and take a look at revenue growth over the past decade.
Yes, the growth was exceptional , but no less important for many investors was the predictability of future cash flows, which were remarkably stable . There are no ups and downs .
那么，说了这么多，S&P Global 是否是一个绝佳的买入机会——一只长期被视为股息增长优质股、如今相对其历史估值处于折价的股票？
So, having said all that, is S&P Global a great opportunity to buy a stock that has long been considered high-quality in dividend growth at a discounted price compared to its historical valuation?
现在，就 S&P Global 而言，可以看到初始收益率目前仅为 1%。是的，这是一家低收益率的公司，但作为参照，其历史收益率通常处于低得多的水平。因此，估值降低确实带来了更高的回报。
Now, with S&P Global, we can see that the initial yield is now only 1%. Yes, this is a low-yield company, but just to put that in perspective, historical yields have typically been at a much lower level .
So, there is definitely a higher return as a result of this lower valuation.
不过，从历史上看，其股息增长非常强劲，10 年复合年增长率为 10.39%。总体而言，股息增长已经放缓，尤其是最近几年，但这是公司内部一些变化的结果，我们稍后会谈到。
However, historically, their dividends have grown at a very strong rate, with a 10-year compound annual growth rate of 10.39 %. Overall, dividend growth has slowed, especially in the last few years, but this is a result of some changes we are seeing internally at the company, which we will talk about in a moment.
但归根结底，其自由现金流增长强劲，这意味着如果公司愿意，股息可以继续高速增长，因为他们只用了约 21% 的自由现金流来支付股息。
But ultimately, their free cash flow growth was strong, meaning that if they chose to, dividends could continue to grow at a high rate because they use only about 21% of their free cash flow to pay dividends.
如果你关注他们的新闻，就会知道他们最近分拆了 Mobility 部门。
If you follow their news, you know that they recently spun off their Mobility division .
我们意识到 S&P Global 分拆移动出行部门的决定完全合理，原因之一是，对整个公司而言，这基本上是一个质量较低的板块。可以看到，该板块的收入低得多，利润率低得多，整体业务增长也低得多。
因此，普遍共识是，该板块拖累了 S&P Global 本应享有的估值倍数。
One of the reasons we realized that S&P Global's decision to spin off the mobility division made perfect sense was that it was essentially a lower-quality sector for the company as a whole.
We can see that revenues are much lower, margins are much lower, and overall business growth has been much lower for this sector. Therefore, the general consensus was that this sector was overburdening the rating multiplier that S&P Global deserved.
事实上，在分拆时，该股表现非常好。它上涨了相当大的百分比。但我们现在看到，仅在过去一个月里，该股就下跌了超过10%。这是怎么回事？
In fact, at the time of the split, the stock was performing very well. It has increased by a relatively large percentage. But we have now seen in the last month alone that the stock has fallen by more than 10%. What's going on?
其中一个吓退了许多金融数据提供商的新闻，是OpenAI推出了面向金融服务的ChatGPT。那么，为什么S&P的股票交易会下滑？说实话，我认为这只是市场犯的一个简单错误。
Well, one of the headlines that scared off many financial data providers was OpenAI's launch of ChatGPT for financial services. So why did trading in S &P shares decline? Honestly, I think this is a simple mistake by the market.
OpenAI仍然依赖金融数据提供商。例如，借助Anthropic和Cloud，S&P可以将数据分发到同样的AI工具中。她已经与“Claude”达成了协议。
OpenAI still relies on financial data providers. For example, with Anthropic and Cloud, S &P can distribute data across the same AI tools. She already has a deal with "Claude".
如此大规模地抛售该股，完全忽视了整体商业模式的样子。例如，我们仍然拥有基本的评级平台、市场情报、指数和能源。主要分类被认为是最大的业务板块，且领先幅度相当大。它们评估借款人的信用状况，公司、政府向S&P付费以评估其债务。
Selling the stock in such a large amount completely ignores what the overall business model looks like. For example, we still have the basic ratings platforms, market intelligence, indices, and energy.
The primary classifications are considered the largest business sector by a considerable margin . They assess the creditworthiness of borrowers, and companies and governments pay S&P to evaluate their debts.
那么，为什么这件事现在如此重要？因为从今年到2026年的债务发行量极高，高得离谱。这是由于人工智能基础设施的建设。它持续上升。
Now, why is this so important right now ? Well, because debt issuances up to 2026 from this year are extremely high and insanely so . This is due to the building of artificial intelligence infrastructure . It continued to rise.
接下来是指数板块。它或许是整个S&P 500指数中最稳定的收入来源之一。它实际上创造了像S&P 500指数本身这样的基准。本质上，它从与其指数挂钩的交易所交易基金、投资产品和衍生品中收取授权费。这就是为什么这个板块享有非常高的利润率。
Then we have the indices sector. It is perhaps one of the most stable revenue drivers in the entire S&P 500 index. It actually creates benchmarks like the S&P 500 index itself.
Essentially, it receives licensing fees from exchange-traded funds, investment products, and derivatives linked to its indices . This is why this sector enjoys very high profit margins.
至于能源板块，它提供大宗商品价格评估和标准基准。所以，市场情报板块才是OpenAI的公告让这里真正受到审视的那部分业务。
As for the energy sector , it provides commodity price assessments and standard benchmarks. So, the market intelligence sector is really the part of the business that's under scrutiny here with OpenAI's announcement .
是的，它提供金融数据、研究和分析软件，但它也包括“Capital IQ Pro”。S&P Global的股价因一则报道而上涨，报道称该公司正在考虑分拆Capital IQ Pro。
即便作为一项正在考虑的选项，它也仍处于早期阶段，但这很有意思。
Yes, it provides financial data, research, and analytical software, but it also includes "Capital IQ Pro". Shares of S&P Global rose on a report that it is considering spinning off Capital IQ Pro.
It is still in its early stages even as an option under consideration, but this is interesting .
Capital IQ是一个研究平台，用于企业财务数据、估值测试工具、交易信息，甚至估值数据。它还将研究与Excel模型连接起来，并包含ChatIQ和Document Intelligence等人工智能工具。
Capital IQ is a research platform used for corporate financial data, valuation testing tools , transaction information, and even valuation data. It also links research to Excel models and includes artificial intelligence tools such as ChatIQ and Document Intelligence.
所以，这是我们需要理解的。这不是整个市场情报板块，而是市场情报板块的一部分。他们并没有把这个板块完全分离出去。
So, this is what we need to understand. This is not the entire market intelligence sector , but it is a part of the market intelligence sector. They are not separating this sector entirely.
所以，这就是有意思的部分。S&P Global再一次只是想要保留其商业模式中质量最高的部分。同样，现在要知道Capital IQ究竟会发生什么还为时过早，但我们看到了他们在导航业务板块上使用的同样逻辑。
So, this is the interesting part. Once again , S&P Global is simply looking to retain the highest quality parts of its business model . Again, it is still too early to know what will actually happen with Capital IQ, but we see the same logic they used with the navigation section.
这则新闻有意思的地方在于，是的，该股继续下跌，但看看分析师的平均目标价现在约为522美元，这意味着较当前价格有约34%甚至35%的潜在上涨空间。
What's interesting about this news is, yes, the stock continued to decline, but look at the analysts' average target price now at around $522, which means a potential upside of about 34 or even 35% from current prices.
因此，有了这则新闻以及现在导航业务板块的分离，我们可以运行一个更新的分部估值模型。而这正是我所做的。本质上，我们正在考察评级、指数、能源和市场情报这些组成部分的实际表现。现在，你可以看到大部分增长来自哪里；它来自评级和指数。
正如我提到的，这是两个非常出色的业务板块。这就是S&P Global真正代表的本质。快速增长、高度可预测的现金流，以及惊人的利润率。这就是为什么这些业务板块理应获得更高的估值倍数。
Thus, with this news and the separation of the navigation section now, we can run an updated evaluation model for the sum of the parts. And that's exactly what I did. Essentially, we are looking at the components of ratings, indices, energy, and market intelligence in action.
Now, you can see where most of the growth is coming from; it's coming from the rankings and the indicators. As I mentioned, these are two great sectors for business. This is the essence of what S&P Global truly stands for.
Rapid growth , highly predictable cash flows , and amazing profit margins. This is why these business sectors deserve a higher valuation multiple .
好，看看我们使用的一些输入。你可以看到，当我们考察像Moody's这样的公司，以及像MSCI这样的公司时，我们能看到这些业务板块实际交易时所对应的估值倍数，然后我们对S&P Global应用类似的方法。
所以，这是一种比较估值分析，同时结合分部估值。我们正在考察结构相似的公司相对于S&P Global是如何被估值的。
Okay, take a look at some of the inputs we used. You can see when we look at companies like Moody's, and when we look at companies like MSCI, we can see the kind of valuation multiples that are actually being traded with those business segments, and then we apply something similar to S &P Global.
So, it is a type of comparative evaluation analysis along with the sum of the parts. We are looking at how stocks similar in structure are valued compared to S& P Global.
因此，即使我们对这些增长较慢的业务板块应用低得多的估值倍数，我们仍然可以确定每个板块的每股价值。仅评级业务板块的估值就约为276美元。指数接近100美元。把它们加在一起，我们得到约376美元。
仅这两个板块就使价格非常接近该股的当前市场价格。所以，即使能源板块以低得多的估值倍数交易，它仍然每股增加约78美元的价值。而市场信息板块，即便再次以低得多的估值倍数计算，也增加约107美元。
当我们把这些价值加在一起，我们得到约562美元。减去净债务后，我们得到每股525美元的价值。
Therefore, even if we apply a much lower valuation multiple to these slower- growing business segments, we can still determine the value of each segment per share. The ratings business sector alone is valued at approximately $276.
The indicators are approaching $100. Adding them together, we arrive at approximately $376. These two sectors alone put the price very close to the current market price of the stock .
So, even if the energy sector is trading at a much lower valuation multiple, it still adds about $78 in value per share. And the market information sector , even with a much lower valuation multiple again, adds about $107.
When we add these values together, we arrive at approximately $562. When net debt is subtracted, we arrive at a value of $525 per share.
现在，有意思的地方在这里。我运行了这个模型，得出的结果是525美元，这与我们目前看到的分析师平均目标价几乎完全一致。
Now, here's what's interesting about this. I ran this pattern and it reached $525, which is almost identical to what we are seeing as the average target price of analysts right now.
仅作为一个例子，我们再来做一次评估。这次评估保持简单，看看敏感性分析。同样，假设未来盈利增长约为10.7%，尽管该股目前的估值倍数是过去五年中最低的，我也不想假设倍数会大幅扩张。
我不想过于乐观。所以，即使市盈率保持在非常接近当前水平的位置，你也可以看到，复合回报开始显得相当有吸引力。利润已经开始承担大部分工作，而且鉴于目前的股息率为1%，你可以在这些结果上各加上约1%。
因此，即使估值倍数继续小幅下降，未来的回报仍然会跑赢历史市场平均水平。
As just an example, let's go ahead and run another evaluation. We will keep this assessment simple and look at the sensitivity analysis. Again, let's assume that it will grow in earnings by approximately 10.7% in the future, and I do n't want to assume a large expansion in multiples despite it trading at its lowest valuation multiple in the past five years.
I don't want to be overly optimistic. So, even if the price-to-earnings ratio remains very close to its current level, you can see that the compound returns are starting to look really attractive.
The profits have started to do the bulk of the work, and you can add about 1% to each of these results given that the yield is now 1%. Therefore, even if the valuation multiple continues to decline slightly, future returns still outperform historical market averages.
当然，关于S&P Global仍有很多未知之处。我的意思是，我们上个月看到的新闻还很新，我们对这类事情的思考仍处于非常早期的阶段，但从风险与回报的角度来看，S&P Global确实变得更有吸引力了。
Certainly, there is still a lot of unknown regarding S&P Global. I mean, the news we saw recently in the last month is still fresh, and we're still in the very early stages of thinking about something like this, but from a risk-versus-reward perspective, S&P Global has certainly become more attractive.
一如既往，完全透明地说，这是我个人投资组合中目前持有的一只股票，而且它是今年亏损的股票之一。你可以看到，我目前在这个持仓上大约亏损了19.8%。
In all transparency, as always, this is a stock that I currently hold in my personal portfolio , and it was one of the losing stocks this year. You can see that I am currently down approximately 19.8% in this position.
因此，这是一只我正在密切关注的股票。我仍然认为它是一只质量非常高的股票。尤其是两大主要业务板块，即评级和指数业务，从各项指标来看都依然出色。仅这两个板块就大致相当于该股当前的市场价值。
因此，从风险与回报的角度来看，我喜欢这家公司，而且我确实认为它在当前价格上很有意思。
Therefore, it is a stock I am watching closely. I still think it's a very high-quality stock. In particular, the two main business segments, namely the ratings and indices sectors, remain outstanding by all measures.
These two sectors alone are roughly equivalent to the current market value of the stock. Therefore, I like the company from a risk-to-reward perspective, and I certainly think it is interesting at current prices.
这个频道对 $SPGI 的历次判断
Dividendology 在这只股票上共 4 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。