SPGI 在当前价位并非买入机会：他的 DCF 公允价值约为 311 美元，而当前股价为 403 美元，因此按 DCF 看显得偏贵；不过按 20 倍的远期市盈率看，估值则较为合理。他小幅下调了自由现金流预测，尽管公司竞争优势强劲，他仍会持续关注。

S&P Global (SPGI) faces a tough year in 2026, with its stock price down more than 18% since the start of the year. The administration highlights the increased use of its high-quality data via APIs, which increased fivefold between the first and second quarters.

However, investors are concerned about the shift in the income generation model to a consumption-based system, compared to the previous model based on the number of seats or accounts.

Investors have sold their shares amid the "Software as a Service" (SaaS) disaster that caused the stock price to collapse earlier this year.

The stock has not really recovered from those low levels, while other software companies have succeeded in recovering.

So, investors ask me: "Does this look like a buying opportunity right now?" Over the past decade, the company has done an excellent job of growing its sales. From $5 billion in 2017, sales have more than tripled to exceed $16 billion in the past twelve months.

Artificial intelligence is fundamentally transforming the company's business model. Previously, they charged customers based on the number of people using their data service. Now, they charge fees based on usage, a strategy that many software companies are also moving towards.

In other aspects of its business, the company expects the credit rating sector to grow at low to moderate rates, despite difficult comparisons with the same period last year. With rising interest rates, the bond and issuance markets are likely to experience less activity.

Companies postpone issuing debt unless they are in dire need of it, or unless they are part of an artificial intelligence system, as an increase in the interest rate of a quarter or half a percentage point does not seem to hinder the investment plans of many of these companies.

This company is one of the most profitable companies in the world, and even at its worst, it achieved an operating profit margin of 30%. It is impressive that your operating profit margin has remained at 30% even in your worst-case scenario over the past decade.

At its best levels, the profit margin exceeded 52% to 55%. Therefore, it is a profitable business model that recently achieved operating margins of 44%, and management has confirmed its ongoing plan to increase profitability by about 50 basis points next year.

They said they are in the middle of their plans for the period from 2027 to 2029, but they remain confident in their ability to continue expanding the profit margins that began many years ago.

Returns on invested capital have been lower than expected since 2023 when they fell to around 5%. These returns have recovered to around 10.5 percent. This is barely equal to the company's weighted average cost of capital.

Prior to 2022, this company was achieving a return on invested capital exceeding 35%.

It remains to be seen whether they will reach these levels again or not. The management stated that they have reached peak staffing levels, meaning they do not expect to increase the number of employees going forward.

We'll know more about that when they reveal their plans for the period from 2027 to 2029, but I think this is a wise move as artificial intelligence is changing the nature of the industry.

I wouldn't be surprised if they became more restrictive in the number of people they employ. Also, if they are using artificial intelligence internally to make each employee more productive, they can accomplish more with the same number of employees, so they do not need to add as many people to the company.

These are the basic expenses for a company like "S&P Global". They do not invest in physical capital infrastructure as much as many other companies might. This is a more people-oriented business, a talent-driven business, so this is where the bulk of the employee growth will come from.

As I mentioned, the company's stock price has not really recovered from the "Software as a Service" crash earlier this year. Some other software companies have recovered, but not S&P Global.

This is a company that warned investors earlier this year that it did not look like a buying opportunity. The last time I reviewed S&P Global on August 19, 2026, I reiterated that it did not look like a buying opportunity.

Given that the share price has not recovered, the valuation has not recovered either. The company is still trading near its cheapest valuation in years. Based on the price-to-earnings ratio, S&P Global is trading at 19.95.

Today, I updated my discounted cash flow valuation model for S&P Global, and it wasn't much different from what I estimated for the company when I valued it a month or a month and a half ago.

I have slightly lowered my estimates regarding the amount of free cash flow I expect the company to generate, but not too much.

The fair value estimate was approximately $311 per share. This does not look good compared to the current market price of 403. So, to answer the question I posed in the title, is this finally a buying opportunity or is it an October buying opportunity? I don't think so.

I don't think I'll be interested in S&P Global at these valuations, but I'll be watching it closely. It has strong competitive advantages thanks to the quality of its data and investors interested in S&P Global's services.

However, the price seems high to me when measured on a discounted cash flow basis. While when measured on a forward price-to-earnings basis, it appears fairly priced at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 20.