SPY 处于上升趋势且动能积极，可能创下新高（目标约 7960-8000），但在 11 月底/12 月初面临显著下行风险。
逐段跳播
你可以看到，SPY 指数这里有一个小幅上升趋势。
you can see here a slight uptrend in the SPY index.
所以，短期来看，SPY 指数目前呈现的是一个上升趋势。
So, what we have here in the short term is an upward trend for the SPY index.
现在，我们来看看其中的对比。这是标普500指数。你可以看到，这里的动能开始趋于平稳，但此前一直非常积极。这是“Russell”的形态；我把图放大一些，让你看清这个形态如何影响这个市场。
如你所见，这是“Russell”的底部。这是“Russell”的底部。这是“Russell”的底部。这是“Russell”的底部。这是11月底到12月初出现的下一个底部。
Now, let's look at the contrast in that. This is the S&P 500 index. You can see here that the momentum is starting to settle down, but it has been very positive here. Here is the "Russell" style; Let me enlarge the picture for you to see how that pattern affects this market.
As you can see, this is the bottom of "Russell". Here is the bottom of "Russell". Here is the bottom of "Russell". Here is the bottom of "Russell". This is the next bottom that appears in late November and early December.
这意味着，如果标普500市场能够突破这个正形成某种双顶的水平，下一个目标区域将在7960附近。所以，它可能会尝试触及8000左右的水平。而且支撑位正在上升，这一点你在那里可以清楚地看到。
This means that if the S&P 500 market manages to break above this level where a kind of double top is appearing, the next target area will be around 7960. So, it might try to reach the 8000 level or so.
And the support levels are rising, as you can clearly see there.
所以，当我在这里看日线图时，你可以看到这是一次非常强劲的市场反转。解读会告诉我们，如你所知，事物的形态是如何转化为分析的。当你看到这里的这个低位和那里预期的底部时，你就处于一个看涨的局面。
这意味着市场可能会下跌几天，或者也许这就是底部。我们其实还不确定。但眼下，如你所见，今天的市场更强。也许情况就是这样，如果是这样，我们就处在接下来的那一波上涨中。
So, when I look at the daily chart here, you can see that this is a very strong market reversal. Interpretation tells us , as you know, how the forms of things are translated into analysis.
When you have this low level here and this expected bottom there, you have a bullish situation. This means that the market may decline for a few days, or perhaps this is the bottom.
We don't really know yet . But right now, as you can see, we have a stronger market today. Perhaps this is the case, and if so, we are in that next upward wave.
你可以看到，下一个短期阻力位大约在7900水平。从这里算起，涨幅不到100点，这是合理的。
You can see here that the next short-term resistance will be at approximately the 7900 level. This is a rise of less than 100 points from here, which is reasonable.
我们再一次告诉过你，根据我在 VIX 指数中看到的情况，我们很可能会看到一波上升趋势，而这很可能会带来对几天前才创下的历史新高的突破。然后我们就会看到像这样向10月底推进的走势。
这将是我们预期会看到的情况。所以，这是一个上升趋势。
Once again, we told you that based on what I see in the VIX index, we are likely to see an uptrend, and this will likely lead to a breakout above the record high that was only a few days ago.
And then we will see this move towards the end of October like this. This will be what we expect to see . So, this is an upward trend.
我已经向你展示过，Russell 指数看起来有望反弹，标普500也有望创下历史新高。所以，目前来看，情况并不糟糕。要说的话，你在这里似乎拥有这种积极的动能。你可以看到，Slim Ribbon PO 指标是绿色的，显示出积极信号。
而且所有指标，短期反转指标和 Slim Ribbon 都是正面的。尽管我们在这里看到的是走平，但周线图上它很容易转为看涨。所以，这或许意味着未来几天还会有一次小幅回落，但总体来看，它看起来有望攀升至历史新高。
I have shown you that the Russell index looks poised for a rebound and that the S&P 500 is poised to reach a new record high. So, at the moment, things don't look bad. If anything, you seem to have this positive momentum here.
You can see that the Slim Ribbon PO indicator is green, showing a positive sign. And with all indicators, the short-term reversal indicator and the Slim Ribbon are all positive.
Although we are seeing flatness here, it could easily turn bullish on the weekly chart. So , this suggests perhaps another slight dip in the next couple of days, but overall it looks poised to climb to a new record high.
现在，反过来看：标普500被仅仅几只股票严重拖累。我再一次告诉你，回去看看那个视频，就是我早前在周度市场部分呈现的那一段，它讲的是这些指数之间的差异以及标普500当前的权重。
Now, here's the opposite: the S&P 500 is heavily weighted down by just a few stocks. Once again, I'll tell you to go back and watch that video, the segment I presented on the weekly market earlier, which talks about the difference between these indices and the current weights in the S&P 500.
我们以 AI 和科技股为权重的标普500和纳斯达克指数正强势创下历史新高。因此，我们在市场中正面临一个重大的分化。
Our AI- and technology-weighted S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices are hitting new record highs with force. Therefore, there is a major split we are facing in the market.
所有证据都向我表明，未来几周我们很可能会看到历史新高，以及这些已耗尽的指标出现反弹。但随后就会出现可能代表市场大量下行风险的情况，也许是在11月底到12月初那段时期，届时我们可能会看到一次显著下跌。
所以，我不希望你错过我早前在节目中呈现的关于市场集中度的那部分内容。我认为它非常重要。
All the evidence points to me that we are likely to see new record highs and a rebound in these exhausted indicators over the next few weeks. But then comes what could represent a lot of downside risk in the market, perhaps in that period between late November and early December, when we might see a significant decline .
So, I don't want you to miss that part I presented earlier in the program about market concentration. I think it's very important.
观察点
这个频道对 $SPY 的历次判断
Steve Miller 在这只股票上共 9 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。