SPY 是一个看涨形态：自10月5日起做多，预计未来几天可能从6月以来的横盘走势中突破，创下新高。10 EMA 位于 20 EMA 之上，价格位于 50 之上；创新高意味着上方没有卖盘；动能与市场广度刚刚转向上行。仍持有多头；退出时机未知。
逐段跳播
我们非常接近为标普500指数创下新的历史高点，现在我给你们一个乐观的看法：我们可能终于要在未来几天突破自6月以来一直经历的这段令人烦躁的横盘走势。
We are very close to setting new record highs for the S&P 500, and I will now give you an optimistic view that suggests we may finally break out in the next few days from this annoying sideways trend we have been experiencing since June.
自5月以来，走势确实一直是横盘，反反复复地上上下下。它在这里稍微涨了一点，然后又不停地反复上下震荡。所以，基本上过去五个月里，标普500除了这一小波上涨之外，没有发生什么实质性的变化。
The trend has literally been sideways since May, going up and down over and over again. It rose a little here, then kept oscillating up and down over and over again. So, basically nothing real has happened to the S&P 500 over the past five months other than this small push upward.
但我真的希望，在这个阶段我们可能会看到一波向大选推进的行情，或者一波向年底推进的行情，诸如此类。那样就太好了。
But I really hope that at this stage we might see a push towards the elections, or a push towards the end of the year, something like that. That would be great.
现在完全披露一下，我在标普500上持有多头仓位。我是在10月5日周一入场的，自那以后它一直呈上行趋势。我得说，市场是在以一种略微横盘的方式向上推进。但我们已经非常非常接近了。
Now for full disclosure, I am in a long position on the S&P 500. I entered the trade on Monday, October 5, and since then the stock has been trending upwards. I mean, I have to say the market was pushing upwards in a slightly sideways manner. But we are very, very close.
那么，为什么我首先说我们期待可能创出新的历史高点呢？很明显，我们就站在它这一边，对吧？记住，任何时候你创出新的历史高点，那都是一个非常强烈的看涨信号，因为你可以这样想：如果是全新的历史高点，那么自历史开端以来，自恐龙在地球上行走以来，自基督最后一次在地球上行走以来，任何仍然持有SPY的人都没有亏钱。
这正是我们想要处于的位置。上方没有任何人在等着试图在你之上卖出。
Now, why do I say first that we are looking forward to possible new record levels? Well, it's clear that we're right on her side, aren't we? And remember, any time you reach new record highs, that's a very strong bullish signal, because think of it this way: if they're brand new record highs, then no one since the dawn of history, no one since dinosaurs walked the earth, no one since Christ last walked the earth, who still holds SPY is losing money.
This is where we want to be. There is no one waiting up there to try and sell above you.
现在，有很多因素对我们有利，这正是上周促使我做出这笔交易的明显原因。我们的10周期均线在20周期之上，价格在50周期之上。那我们为什么在意呢？当你的10周期均线，也就是你的短期均线，位于你的20周期指数均线之上——这些都是指数均线——并且价格位于你的50周期指数均线，也就是你的长期均线之上。
当你的短期、中期和长期均线层层叠加，10在20之上，价格在50之上，那是一个重大而漂亮的信号。真正妙的地方在于，这三条均线100%的时候都能告诉你路径的方向。当然，趋势可能是在横盘，对吧？
价格过一段时间可能会横盘，但每一个伟大的趋势，无一例外，100%都是从10均线在20之上、20在50之上开始的，就像4月份这里发生的那样。所以，我们现在有了这个。我们现在已经有了，这很棒。
它不会告诉你方向或幅度，但它会告诉你路径。所以，这是一个很好的开端，对吧？
Now, we have a lot of things working in our favor, and that is the obvious reason that prompted me to make the deal last week. We have a 10-period moving average above 20 and a price above 50 in the market.
So why do we care? When your 10-period moving average, which is your short-term average, is above your 20-period exponential average —these are all exponential averages—and the price is above your 50-period exponential average, which is your long-term average.
When your short, medium and long averages stack up on top of each other, 10 above 20 and the price above 50, that's a big and nice sign. What's really great about this is that those three moving averages show you the direction of the path 100% of the time.
Now, the trend might be moving sideways, right? The price may move sideways after a while, but every great trend ever, always 100%, starts with an average of 10, over 20, over 50, just like what happened here in April.
So, we have that now. We already have that now, which is great. It does not show you the direction or size, but it will show you the path. So, this is a great start, isn't it?
接下来，我们收到了标普500上“异常值”出现看涨动能的警报。最后，让我兴奋的一件事是，我们看到“市场广度”几个月来几乎毫无作为，只有向下的方向。我们已经在8月看到市场广度出现看跌交叉，并且一直保持看跌，直到最近几天才开始上升。
那么，市场广度衡量的是什么？它衡量的是我们在“Outlair”内部看到的看涨动能信号与看跌动能信号的数量对比。它在几个月后终于又开始上升了。你还会在下面注意到，红灯显示向下的趋势更少，而绿灯显示向上的趋势更多。
所以，这是一个很好的开端，对吧？水涨船高。标普500指数由大约500只股票组成。因此，我们希望看到越来越多的这些股票一起上涨，并减少对大盘股的关注。
Next, we received an alert of bullish momentum in the "outlier" on the S&P 500. Finally, one of the things I'm excited about is that we've seen "market breadth" do almost nothing for months, except direct downside.
We have already seen a bearish crossover in the market widening in August, and it remained bearish until the last couple of days, when it started to rise. Now, what does market breadth measure?
It measures the number of bullish momentum signals versus bearish momentum signals we have within "Outlair". And it finally started to rise again after months. You will also notice here below that the red light shows fewer downward trends, while the green light shows more upward trends.
So, this is a great start, isn't it? The rising tide lifts all ships. The S&P 500 index consists of approximately 500 stocks. Therefore, we want to see more and more of these stocks rise together, and reduce the focus on the big names.
市值加权的标普500指数就是SPY指数。因为记住，我们看的是标普500的图表，如果那些大盘股仍然表现良好，它们可以抵消所有那些较小的股票。
The market capitalization-weighted S&P 500 index is the SPY index. Because remember, we're looking at the S&P 500 chart, and if those big names are still performing well, they can offset all the smaller names out there.
这正是我现在在标普指数上持买入仓位的原因之一。我们希望在未来两天推动市场走高。事实上，我已经提供了关于我为什么进入标普指数的完整分析。这是我们在新的Spy平衡计划下做的第一笔新交易，我们已从各个角度对历史上和未来的情况进行了测试和检验。
我在这里的这个视频中一步步解释了我为什么进入这笔交易。所以，点击这个视频，看看我到底为什么那样做。我仍然在Spy上持买入仓位，并在寻找那些出场点。我不知道需要多长时间，但你可以看到关于它的一切。
This is precisely one of the reasons why I am now in a buy position on the S&P index. We hope to push the market higher in the next two days. In fact, I have provided a full analysis of why I entered the S&P index.
This is the first new deal we are making under our new Spy balancing plan, which we have historically and prospectively tested and examined from all angles. I have explained step by step why I entered into this deal in this video here.
So, click on this video to see exactly why I did that. I'm still in a buy position on Spy and looking for those exit points. I don't know how long it will take, but you can see everything about it.
这个频道对 $SPY 的历次判断
Christopher Uhl - OVTLYR 在这只股票上共 5 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。