$SPY · FAST Graphs · 2026-10-27
SPY 的 24.38 倍市盈率接近其近期高位，而历史平均为 19.5 倍，在 8.5% 增长下合理价值市盈率为 15 倍；但结论取决于增长：若实现约 25.94% 的年化盈利增长预期，则 SPY 并未被高估，并可能实现每年 30% 的回报；若未能兑现，市场将显著高估，而 Nvidia 和 Broadcom 等关键持仓（约占指数 8%）将支撑或击穿这一估值。
逐段跳播
我们将用 SPY 作为替代，这是一只跟踪标普500指数的交易所交易基金，我们来看看 FastGraphs。这张图显示了 SPY 自2006年，也就是2007年初以来的盈利，并将其与价格进行比较。
这就是橙线所代表的，而绿色阴影区域是利润。我们看到的这条蓝线是市盈率，也就是市场在此期间为这些盈利支付的平均比率。
What we will use is SPY as an alternative, which is an exchange-traded fund that tracks the S&P 500 index, and we will take a look at FastGraphs. This chart shows SPY's earnings since 2006 or, as you know, the beginning of 2007 and compares them to the price .
This is what the orange line represents, and as you know, the area shaded in green is the profits. This blue line we see is the price-to-earnings ratio, or the average rate the market paid for those earnings during this period.
因此，这里标出了24.38的市盈率。所以，只要这条黑线更低，也就是价格线低于这条实心黑线的任何位置，该股票的交易市盈率就低于24；而只要它更高，该股票的交易市盈率就高于24.38。
Therefore, this plots the price-to-earnings ratio of 24.38 as such . So, anywhere that this black line is lower, well, anywhere the price line is lower than this solid black line, the stock was trading below 24, and anytime it is higher , the stock was trading above the price-to-earnings ratio of 24.38.
用非常简单的话说，看 FastGraphs 的方法是：只要它高于这条橙线，就被认为高于计算出的公允价值。只要它在橙线上，就被认为大致处于公允价值。只要它低于这条橙线，就被认为被低估了。
In very simple terms , the way to look at FastGraphs is that anytime it is above this orange line, it is considered to be above the calculated fair value. At any time it is on the orange line, it is considered to be around fair value.
At any time it is below this orange line, it is considered to be undervalued .
仅从这张图一开始就能看出，当前市盈率在其最长时间框架内处于 SPY 近期历史上最高的市盈率之列。平均市盈率约为19.5。因此，过去二十年的平均水平来看，它的交易价格高于其平均值。
What we can see just by looking at this chart at the outset is that this current price-to-earnings ratio over its maximum time frame is among the highest price-to-earnings ratios for SPY in recent history.
The average price-to-earnings ratio is approximately 19.5. Therefore, on average over the past twenty years, it has traded above its averages.
再一次，基于8.5%的增长率——也就是我们在这张图中看到的复合年增长率——得出的公允价值对应的市盈率是15。所以，单看这张图，我们看到它几乎处于近期历史上的最高估值。很明显，它已经多次达到这一水平，而且在过去几年里一直维持在那个高估值水平。
Once again, the fair value based on the growth rate of 8.5%, which is the compound annual growth rate we see in this chart, would give us a fair value at a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.
So, looking at this chart alone, we see that it is at almost its highest valuation in recent history. It is clear that he has reached this level several times, and in the past few years he has continued at that high rating.
然后我们可以开始缩小这张图的范围，看到增长率已经开始上升，自然倍数也随之上升，升至当前的市盈率。但我们接下来要看的是投资未来。因此，在增长率提高的情况下，你可以为股票支付更高的价格。
仅仅看当前市盈率并不一定能判断一只股票是被高估还是被低估。结合公司增长率来看市盈率，才是判断估值的方法。尤其是在谈论未来估值时。
Then we can start to narrow down this graph to see that the growth rate has started to increase, as have the natural multiples, which rise to the current price-to-earnings ratio.
But what we will look at next is investing in the future. Therefore, with an increased growth rate, you can pay more for the stock. Simply looking at the current price-to-earnings ratio does not necessarily determine whether a stock is overvalued or undervalued.
Looking at the price-to-earnings ratio in relation to the company's growth rate is how you determine the valuation. Especially when talking about future evaluation.
如果我们看 FastGraphs 上的预测图，只要这些预测能够实现，并且这些预测以每年约25.94%的速度增长，估计的年化回报率就可能达到30%。从这张图来看，SPY 指标似乎并没有被高估，但这有一个重要的前提条件。
那就是这种增长确实会发生。如果这种增长没有发生，这个市场可能被显著高估。
If we turn to the forecast graph on FastGraphs, we can see that the estimated annual rate of return could reach 30% as long as these estimates are met , and if these estimates grow by about 25.94% annually.
From this picture, the SPY indicator does not appear to be overrated, but this is conditional on a major caveat. That is, this growth actually happens. If this growth does not occur, this market may be significantly overvalued.
所以，这是一个重要因素，解释了为什么 SPY 指标可能并没有被高估，因为这对该指标的增长贡献很大。但请记住，它在 SPY 指数中占巨大份额。大约8%的份额。因此，如果那些数字出现动摇，我们可能会看到 SPY 的估值显著恶化，使其被严重高估。
So, this is a big factor that explains why the SPY indicator may not be , you know, overvalued, because this contributes a great deal to the growth in the indicator. But remember, it's a huge share of the SPY index.
That's a share of approximately 8% . Therefore, if those numbers falter, we could see a significant deterioration in SPY's valuation, making it grossly overvalued.
那么，回答这个问题：SPY 基金今天被高估了吗？这个问题涉及许多风险，不是吗？这个问题涉及许多风险。如果这些盈利结果是由 SPY 的一些关键持仓大公司实现的，比如 Broadcom 和 Nvidia，它们基本上支撑了该基金的估值；然而，其增长率的任何挫折都可能导致该基金被重新估值，并显示出被显著高估。
So, to answer the question, is SPY fund overvalued today? As you know, there are many risks involved in this question. Isn't that so ? There are many risks involved in this question .
If these earnings results are achieved by some of these major companies that are key holdings in SPY, such as Broadcom and Nvidia, they essentially support the fund's valuation; However, any setback in its growth rates could cause the fund to be revalued and shown to be significantly overvalued .