$SPY · Verified Investing · 2026-10-30
SPY 在标普 500 上行趋势线附近突破失败，令说话者保持谨慎：他预计支撑位将受到测试并可能被跌破，下周进一步抛售将指向 75401 的缺口回补，随后是 750 整数关口，预计近期至中期至少会出现小幅至中等反弹。
逐段跳播
我们先从标普 500 说起，你可以在 SPY ETF 的日线图上看到。昨天我们强调过，价格走势很好地守住了这条上升趋势线。注意今天价格重新回到这条趋势线后却失败了。这是标普 500 近期一次失败的突破尝试。
我预计这条支撑线今天会受到测试，而且很可能被跌破。该支撑位在 760.40，然后是下一个缺口回补位 759.97。每当出现向上的失败走势，通常都会看到一些幅度最大的反向走势。所以这就是我今天更加谨慎的原因，我预计抛售压力会进一步加大，推动价格下周走低，很可能测试这里 754.01 的缺口回补位。
如果我把图表缩小，你可以看到这个平行通道的上升上沿。这个平行通道如你所见，从 2022 年 10 月就开始了。我认为这波近期抛售压力就会朝那里去，也就是越过下方 750 点这个缺口回补位，在 SPY 上。
关键的心理整数关口总有一种吸引买盘的力量，我预计至少在近期到中期，市场会在标普 500 上展开一次中等或小幅反弹。
Now, we start off with the S&P 500, and you can see here on the daily time frame with the SPY ETF. Now, yesterday we were highlighting how price action did a great job maintaining above this inclining trend line.
Notice how price regained that trend line today failing. That's a failed breakout attempt near-term on the S&P 500. My anticipation this support line will get tested today and likely blown through.
That support is at 76040 and then this next gap fill at 759.97. Whenever you have a failed move to the upside, generally you see some of the biggest moves in the opposite direction.
So that's why I'm being more cautious today, anticipating further selling pressure, pushing price down next week, likely testing this gap fill here at 75401. And if I scroll back out onto the chart, you can see I've got an inclining top portion of this parallel channel.
Now, this parallel channel, as you see, started all the way back here in October of 2022. That's where I think this near-term selling pressure is going to be headed. That's past this gap fill down here at 750 points on the spiders.
There's something about key psychological whole round numbers that attracts buyers and that's where I'm anticipating at least in the near to midterm seeing the markets stage a medium or small bounce uh on the S&P 500.
这个频道对 $SPY 的历次判断
Verified Investing 在这只股票上共 32 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。