$SPY · Verified Investing · 2026-11-06
预计 SPY 还将再跌一段，同时 VIX 维持在 23 以上；VIX 处于 27 以及持续的下行对冲支持这一看空观点。急跌可能引发盘中反弹，但不会终结下跌趋势；若 VIX 跌破 23，则该条件将不再成立。
逐段跳播
总之，我今天在看 spiders。昨天我们经历了最惨烈的抛售之一，下跌4%。但中期选举结果公布后，交易员们在追买看涨期权。我们一路下跌，跌破了一条趋势线，看起来 spiders 要向下破位。
然后中期选举结果公布，交易员开始交易看涨期权并把价格推高。接着第二天，我们又大幅下挫。然后交易员开始买入那些看跌期权，或者说他们在期权市场上有押注，认为市场会因这根红色K线下跌。
但那不是买那些看跌期权的时候。现在你为那些看跌期权支付更高的权利金，而大家仍在买入下行方向的保险。所以是的，当我们遇到这样的急跌时，这会给价格走势带来急剧反弹，我认为这会在盘中发生。
不过，基于期权情绪，我仍然认为还会有另一波下跌。
Anyways, I'm looking at the spiders today. We saw one of the worst sell-offs yesterday, down 4%. But after the midterms posted, traders were chasing calls. We came down, we broke a trend line, looking like the spiders were going to break down.
And then the midterms posted and traders started trading calls and were pushing up. Now, then the next day, we plummeted down. Then traders started to buy those puts or they had bets in the options market.
The market was going to go down on this red bar. That's not the time to buy those puts. Now you're paying an increased premium on those puts and everyone's buying insurance still to the downside.
So yes, when we have sharp falls like this, this gives price action sharp bounces and I think that will happen intraday. However, I do still think that there's going to be another leg down based on the options sentiment.
首先，我在关注两个关键价位。在740附近这个枢轴位有一个大的看涨期权墙，或者说有大量交易员聚集在这里。这个位置在下跌途中曾是支撑，如果我们反弹，现在它将成为上涨途中的阻力。目前我们在7355附近。
这大约是昨天的机构均价或 VWOP，一直延续到收盘。如果还有另一波下跌，我在看这里这根红色K线，大约在72914。这个低点枢轴位应该会带来反弹。我们会不会继续走低？
So first off, two key levels I'm watching. There's a big call wall or uh of heavy traders here at this pivot right here about 740. This was support on the way down. Now it's going to be resistance on the way up should we bounce.
Right now we're at about 7355. That was about the institutional average or VWOP yesterday going into the close. If there's another leg lower, I'm looking at this red bar candle here at about 72914.
Uh, this low pivot here should give a bounce. Should we continue lower?
但你会说，Jake，你为什么认为我们会继续走低？嗯，VIX，宝贝。看看 VIX。昨天它飙升了70%。自美国与伊朗战争高峰以来我们还没见过这种情况。好。这是3月3日。而正如我们今天所见，我们收在23、24这个水平之上。
所以现在 VIX 在27。市场里仍然有大量恐惧。普通日内交易员仍在买入保护或看跌期权以应对进一步下行。现在看这里。这是3月3日，当时恐惧处于26、27的较高水平。好。现在我们回到 spiders。
我们缩小看看。这是3月3日，就在这里。抱歉。这是3月3日，就在这里。是的，我们确实得到了一点反弹，就是那种在 spiders 下跌后你会预期到的缓解性反弹，但我们仍然小幅走低。
在这整段时间里，当恐惧处于高位时，价格随着恐惧持续高企而不断下跌。所以，在 VIX 回到23这个水平之下以前，我仍然认为 spiders 还会有另一波下跌。
But you say, Jake, why do you think that we're going to continue on lower? Well, the VIX, baby. Look at the VIX. We shot up 70% yesterday. We have not seen this since the peak of the US Iran war.
All right. Now, this was on March 3rd. And as we see today, we closed above this kind of 23 24 level. So right now the VIX is at 27. There is still plenty of fear in the market.
Regular day traders are still buying protection or puts for further downside. Now look here. This is March 3rd when fear was elevated 26 27 levels. All right. Now let's go back to the spiders.
Let's zoom out. This is March 3rd right here. Sorry about that. This is March 3rd right here. Yes, we did get a slight bounce. that relief bounce that you expect in the spiders with that fall, but we still edged down.
This is the whole time as that fear was elevated, price kept going down as fear stayed elevated. So, until the VIX comes back under this 23 level, I still think spiders are going to have another leg lower.
这个频道对 $SPY 的历次判断
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