$SPY · Steve Miller · 2026-11-07
标普500的上涨阶段已经瓦解，为跌入明年春季埋下伏笔；动能于11月19日转为下行，看空情景权重最大，短期该指数非常看空，已几乎回吐将其推升至约80的涨幅。
逐段跳播
好，来看股市。我们会看一下标普500、纳斯达克、RSP 和 VIX 这几个指数。
Okay, the stock market. We will take a look at the S&P 500, Nasdaq, RSP, and VIX indices.
RSP 是这里绿色的那条线，也就是等权重指数。可以看到，这里 RSP 的周期线本周正指向新高，因为实际情况就是这样，而与此同时标普500却在往下走。
RSP is the green color here, and it is the equal weight. You can see that the RSP cycle line here is pointing to a new high this week, because that's what happened, while the S&P 500 was moving downwards.
那我们先从标普500指数看起。可以看到，它们在这个区域全都下跌，并在这里形成了那个重要底部，随后它们又在这个区域全部下跌，这个底部就是在这里形成的。之后市场向上走到10月份这里的一个新高。
8月份这里的这个高点是前一个周期。6月份这里的这个高点，实际上就是科技股见顶的位置。
So let's start by looking at the S&P 500 index. You can see here where they were all falling in this area and that major bottom was formed, then they all fell in this area and that's where this bottom was formed here.
The market then moved upwards to a new peak here in October. This peak here in August was the previous cycle here. This peak here in June was actually where technology stocks peaked.
这意味着这轮上涨阶段已经瓦解了。这就是标普500指数里这条黑线。它所做的，就是为这里一直到明年春季的下跌埋下伏笔。
This means that this upward phase has already collapsed. This is the black line here in the Standard & Poor's 500 index. What it does is set the stage for a decline here until next spring.
这里是标普500指数，除了我们的指标之外没有加任何东西，包括反转探测器、Slim Ribbon、Slim Ribbon PO 和期权偏向指标。你可以看到，这里的动能状况已经向下转变。这发生在11月19日。
Here is the S&P 500 index without any additions except for our indicators, reversal finders, Slim Ribbon, Slim Ribbon PO, and Options Bias indicator. What you can see here is that the momentum conditions have shifted downwards here. This happened on November 19th.
让我把这个调回来，好让你看到。这是 SPX 指标。接下来，当我转到 NDX 指数时，我明白这类分析对很多人来说非常奇怪。
Let me bring this back up so you can see it. This is the SPX indicator. Now, when I move on to the NDX index, I understand that this type of analysis is very strange to many people.
所以在这种情况下，我给出了标普500指数的两种情景，而在我看来，看跌情景是权重最大的那个。
Therefore, in this case, I presented both scenarios for the S&P 500 index, and the bearish scenario is the one that carries the most weight in my opinion.
我们看到，即便在今天，股市也经历了一波相当不错的上涨。标普指数达到了80左右。而在我准备这份报告时，它们几乎已经回吐了所有这些涨幅。
We see that even today in the stock market, which has seen, as you know, a fairly good upward movement. The S&P index reached around 80. Now, as I prepare this report, they have almost given up all of those gains.
你可以看到标普500指数。我们看的是短期，它是看跌的，非常看跌。事实上，标普500和纳斯达克指数受这些人工智能股票的影响最大。
You can see the S&P 500 index. We are looking at the short term, and it is bearish, very bearish. In fact, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices are the most affected by these artificial intelligence stocks.
这个频道对 $SPY 的历次判断
Steve Miller 在这只股票上共 13 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。