东芝的产量增加并未对STX的市场份额构成显著威胁；尽管近期出现回调，该股年初至今仍保持强劲上涨。
逐段跳播
尽管上周出现下跌，但对 Seagate 来说这仍然是表现出色的一年。是的，我认为如果你看看 Seagate 的费用，就会发现那次下跌，以及因 Toshiba 的消息而带来的强劲销售，Toshiba 可能会将其硬盘产量翻倍。
Despite last week's decline, it's still a great year for Seagate Yes, I think if you look at Seagate's fees, you'll see that decline and strong sales due to the news from Toshiba, which may double its production of hard drives.
不过，这不会显著影响 Seagate 和 Western Digital 的市场份额。不过，我想给你提供一些关于 Seagate 长期走势图的背景，你可以在这里的三年周线图上看到，三年前我们处在 68 美元的水平。
所以，尽管我们在这里看到了一些波动和震荡，我们仍然是上涨的。在过去三年里，我们从那些水平上涨了超过 1140%。因此，对于过去两年一直持有该股的投资者来说，情况非常好。
However, this will not significantly affect the market share of Seagate and Western Digital. However, I wanted to give you context regarding Seagate's long-term chart , where you can see here in the three-year weekly chart that we were at the $68 level three years ago.
So, we have risen even though we have seen some fluctuations and some volatility here. We have risen by more than 1140% from those levels over the past three years. Therefore, the situation was great for investors who held onto the stock over the past two years.
我还有另一张偏短期的图表。它简单地反映了我们近期目睹的波动，以及从历史高点的回落。这里，这是一张一年的日线图。我们在 6 月达到了那些创纪录的水平，大约在 1145 美元。到周五收盘时，我们已经下跌了约 26%。
所以，我们处在熊市区域，尽管随着分析师出来说“嘿，Toshiba 的消息一切都没问题”“Seagate 仍将表现非常好”，我们今天看到股市因这波反弹而小幅回升。但你可以在这里看到我们近期经历的波动。该股今年迄今仍上涨超过 208%。
I have another chart that is somewhat short-term. It gives you a simple reflection of the volatility we have recently witnessed, and the retreat from its all-time highs . Here, this is a daily chart for one year.
We reached those record levels in June at around $1145. Well, we've fallen by about 26% by Friday's close. So, we are in a bear market area even though we are seeing some recovery in stocks today by a small percentage with this rebound, as analysts come out and say, " Hey, everything is fine with the Toshiba news."
"Seagate will still perform very well." But you can see the fluctuation we've seen recently here. The stock is still up by more than 208% so far this year.
我们只是在上周五跌破了 50 日简单移动均线。你可以看到那根从底部上涨的大阳线。你能看到。我们今天将在该水平之上开盘交易。我们将在 870 美元左右开盘交易。
We only fell below the 50-day simple moving average last Friday. You see that big green candle where we rose from the bottoms. You can see that. We will open trading above that level today. We will open trading at around $870.
现在，先来看一些筹码分布，看看支撑可能在哪里。我们在这个水平，也就是略低于 800 的水平，曾多次获得支撑。我们将回到那条 50 日简单移动均线之上。你在这里 800 处有一条大线。
那将是一个支撑区。我们在 840 美元左右还有更多支撑。如果我们看到一些回调，800 和 840 这两个水平可能会成为该股这里的支撑区。
Now , start by taking a look at some size profiles to see where support might be. Well, we have had repeated support at this level right here, just below the 800 level . We will return above that 50-day simple moving average.
You have a large line here at 800. That will be a support zone. We have more support here at around $840. If we see some pullback, the 800 and 840 levels could act as support zones for the stock here.
现在，看看相对强弱指数（RSI）。由于上周的消息，我们看到那次大幅下跌，跌破了 50 的水平。所以，动能略有减弱，但今天这应该会相对较快地反转，Diane，因为该股已上涨超过 2%。
Now, look at the Relative Strength Index (RSI). We saw that big drop due to the news last week where we fell below the 50 level. So, the momentum is waning a little, but this should reverse relatively quickly today, Diane, as the stock has risen by more than 2 %.
对于一只高价股，870 美元，你必须稍微谨慎一些。我选择了一种略微偏空的思路，如果我看好 Seagate Technology，我仍然可以采取方向性偏向，对吧？但我不必对此过于激进。
我可以在这里使用一个成功概率很高的交易。所以，我研究的这笔交易是一笔中性偏多的垂直看跌期权交易，我会卖出一个价外的看跌期权。我会选择 10 月 16 日的期权。因此，距离到期日只剩 11 天。
这是一个非常短期的布局，预期 840 和 800 这两个水平在未来可能守住，从而给我更高的成功概率。所以，我们会卖出 800 的看跌期权，并买入 780 的看跌期权。因此，这是一笔中性偏多的垂直卖出交易，报价为 20 美元。
该股在这里开盘约 870 美元。你可能会收到大约 450 美元的权利金。所以，这就是你的盈利。你可以每组赚取 450 美元，风险约为 1550 美元。但如果我拿到这 450 美元的余额，看看盈亏平衡点在哪里，它降到 795.50 美元。
这大约比该股似乎准备开盘的 870 美元水平低 8.5%。所以，你在下方有那个很大的缓冲空间作为保护。现在，你在四种情景中的三种里都会赢。无论该股上涨、原地不动还是下跌。即使你判断错了，只要该股保持在 795.50 美元的盈亏平衡点之上，你在这笔交易中就是赢家。
现在，你卖出的 800 看跌期权，正如我提到的，成功概率很高。在这个策略中你卖出的 800 看跌期权，在到期时约有 70% 的概率处于价外。所以，Diane，我们说的这些交易，我冒 15.50 美元的风险只赚 4.50 美元，但只要该股在未来 11 天里保持在 795.50 美元的盈亏平衡点之上，我就有非常好的机会在这笔交易中获利。
Well, with a high- priced stock, $870, you have to be a little careful . I have chosen a slightly negative approach where I can still take a directional bias at Seagate Technology if I am optimistic, right?
But I don't have to be aggressive about it. I can use a deal with a high probability of success here. So, the trade I looked at is a neutral to bullish vertical put option trade where I would sell an out-of-range put option.
I will choose the option of October 16th. Therefore, there are only 11 days left until the expiry date. A really short-term positioning with expectations that the 840 and 800 levels may hold going forward, giving me a better probability of success.
So, we will sell the put option at 800 and buy the put option at 780. Therefore, a neutral to bullish vertical sell trade with a bid of $20. The stock opens here at around $870.
You will likely receive a credit of approximately $450. So , this is your profitability. You can earn $450 per team with a risk of approximately $1550. But if I get this balance of $450, look where the breakeven point goes, it drops to $795.50 .
This represents about 8.5% below the $870 level at which the stock appears poised to open. So, you have that large margin on the underside for protection. Now, you win in three out of four scenarios.
Whether the stock rises, stays in place, or falls. Even if you are wrong, but the stock remains above the breakeven point at $795.50, you will be a winner in this trade. Now, the sell option at 800 that you are selling has a high probability of success, as I mentioned.
There is approximately a 70% chance that the put option at 800 that you sell in this strategy will be out of range at expiry. So, those swaps we're talking about, Diane, where I risk $15.50 to earn only $4.50 , but I have a very good chance of being profitable in this trade as long as the stock stays above the breakeven point of $795.50 for the next 11 days.
这个频道对 $STX 的历次判断
Schwab Network 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。