$SWK · Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D. · 2026-11-10
SWK 估值合理但缺乏吸引力：五年多来下跌，市盈率 20 倍/十几倍高位，5% 至 7% 的现金流收益率意味着回报仅属一般。若利润率回归历史水平，盈利可能改善，但竞争激烈且利润率更低；不算差，但不会让你致富。
逐段跳播
Stanley Black & Decker过去五年被摧毁了，但现在我们到了市盈率20倍，我稍微看了一下业绩，是的，如果它回到周期常态的话，但竞争很激烈，2022年是过度繁荣，你没有护城河，事情正常化了，也许如果利润率正常化到历史水平，你可以看到现在利润率更低，那么它应该会改善，盈利上升，但市盈率仍然在这里，十几倍的高位，对这样一家工业公司来说不算太好，定价还算合理。
我在看现金流。那是5%、6%，不能说6%、7%，已经定价了，好公司定价在合理的回报上。这没那么有吸引力。没什么不好，但真的不会让你变富。
Stanley Black & Decker has been destroyed over the last five years but now we are there P ratio of 20 I looked a little bit at the results yes If it returns to the cyclical normality but the competition is high 2022 was exuberance you have no mode things normalized maybe if margins normalize to historical levels you can see now margins are lower then it should improve earnings go up but P ratio still here high teens that's not that great for industrial like this fairly ly priced.
I'm looking at the cash flows. That's that five, six, not to say six, seven% priced already good companies priced at a fair return. That's not that attractive. Nothing bad, but not really going to make you rich.