Atlassian挺过了SaaS危机，技术面复苏信号显示短期内存在上行潜力。

Your next choice is Atlassian, a stock I've been following for a few months now, Tim. We hosted Ternan Ray during the SAS crisis, and he said that Atlassian was among the stocks that would confirm whether the SAS crisis would actually wipe out all software companies or whether some would survive.

Atlassian was among the stocks he advised watching, and it has clearly survived and performed amazingly, rising 246% over the past six months. So, what do you think of Atlassian?

In any case, Atlassian , as you know, is one of those stocks where traders can thrive in such markets. I mean, if you look back, it seems like very old history, but you know, the AI bubble .

Think back a year, look at all those stocks, then go back to about February when the SAS crisis was happening, and you saw all those stocks being sold off heavily. So, Atlasin has taken a big hit, right?

But these are human emotions, panic, you know, and this is what creates trading opportunities, the fact that humans are largely irrational. Douglas Mackay wrote a wonderful book about this subject about 150 years ago.

But, you know, as much as I believe in artificial intelligence, use it, and build my own applications with it, to think that a company like Atlassine, which is widespread throughout organizations and used by many companies, would be replaced by a group of five programmers, I mean, that's unrealistic.

Then, as you can see, we've returned to pre-collapse levels of the Software as a Service (SaaS) market, and look at this graph. The stock continued to test the 200 level, then broke through it this week.

Now, look at all those who rationally sold their shares believing the software-as-a-service market was going to collapse. They've probably all come back to buy at higher prices, wishing they'd never sold. I think that could drive the stock up.

Okay, KG. Now let's turn to the chart for Atlassine, symbol TEAM, and take a closer look. This stock has seen sharp fluctuations over the past 52 weeks. What do you see in technical analysis ?

I agree with you. I mean, if we look at this stock, we'll find significant volatility, and the beta coefficient is a bit high , and I think that's the reason for the recent price reaction .

If we look back at this time last year, we will find that we have seen a good price range. This comes after the stock had already risen from previous record highs . We experienced a period of stability, then the price declined, breaking below the 20, 50, and 200-day moving averages.

But we did see what looked like a V-shaped bottom, or rather a W-shaped bottom, where buyers came in when the price hit around $56 in April, and since then we've been recording higher bottoms, which is a positive sign.

We have been using the 20-day moving average ( shown in blue) as a support zone since around July, and we saw a significant price gap to the up in August between $115 and around $140.

We have not yet experienced this gap, and we are still recording higher peaks. Now, what is actually happening is a compression of the price movement. So, we began to see wedge patterns forming here.

We have already seen a sharp drop in one of these levels, and that was very recently, on September 25. We saw a drop, but the price managed to recover some of those levels, and it seems to be trying to rise again and return to those peaks .

The MACD indicator below points to an upward trend , and it appears to be seeking to break above the 12-period exponential moving average above the 26-period exponential moving average.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has broken its series of lower highs, which is very good for bullish investors. But, if we look at the weekly chart, I think perspective is very important here.

As you can see, the price has seen a sharp decline. It was trading at $326 in February 2025, then we saw a significant downward move . We are talking here about a drop of more than 80% from the highest level to the lowest level.

We are now approaching the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. Therefore, the 230 level can be considered the next major resistance zone . It can also be observed that trading was concentrated during only two or three months, specifically at the beginning of this year, when there was a large number of trades .

We have broken through this resistance level, and now it can be said once again that the 230 level could be an uptrend. If a break occurs, the 174 level must hold down, which is the 200-week moving average .

If it doesn't hold, we will see a sharp decline. But the current situation looks promising, at least for the next month or two . It appears there is potential for an increase over the next month or two.