$TMUS · Parkev Tatevosian, CFA · 2026-11-09
T-Mobile 值得买入,说话者于2026年11月4日将其信心从低上调至中。它是美国增长最快的主要电信运营商:未来几年每股收益预计增长约18%,而 AT&T 为10%、Verizon 为8%;上季度营收增长接近两位数;预计到2026年净增约100万用户;营业利润率从2017年的约7%几乎增至三倍,达到21.8%。尽管长期债务约1140亿美元、SpaceX 的威胁限制了灵活性,但股价仅为11.16倍市盈率、处于近期低位,PEG 低于1,DCF 公允价值为222美元、而股价为159美元,因此看起来被低估。
逐段跳播
由于竞争加剧,Verizon、AT&T 和 T-Mobile 正面临直接威胁,或者有被颠覆的风险。因此,我会密切关注这三家公司,以评估这个新竞争对手带来的结果。
Verizon, AT&T, and T-Mobile are under direct threat or at risk of disruption as a result of this increased competition. Therefore, I will be closely monitoring these three companies to assess the results resulting from this new competitor.
在本视频中,我将分析 T-Mobile,判断它是一个买入机会,还是投资者应该在竞争格局改变、其前景恶化之前卖出该股票。
In this video, I'll take a look at T-Mobile to determine whether it's a buying opportunity or whether investors should sell the stock before the competition changes and its prospects worsen.
T-Mobile 是美国三大电信公司中增长最快的,其每股收益预计在未来几年增长约18%,相比之下 AT&T 为10%,Verizon 为8%。
T-Mobile is the fastest growing of the three major US telecom companies, with its earnings per share expected to grow by about 18% over the next few years, compared to 10% for AT&T and 8% for Verizon.
此外,T-Mobile 上一季度实现了接近两位数的营收增长,管理层预计到2026年将净增近100万用户。
In addition, T-Mobile achieved near double-digit revenue growth in the last quarter, and management expects to add nearly one million net subscribers by 2026.
所以,它已经是增长最快的公司之一,而且根据消费者调查,随着网络速度提升,它的竞争力正日益增强。令人印象深刻的是,T-Mobile 在做到这一点的同时还在提升盈利能力。
So, it is already one of the fastest-growing companies and is becoming increasingly competitive with higher network speeds according to consumer surveys. It is impressive that T-Mobile achieved this while simultaneously improving its profitability.
过去十年,其营业利润率几乎增长了两倍,从2017年的约7%升至过去十二个月的21.8%。确实,包括 AT&T 和 Verizon 在内的竞争对手的营业利润率也处于这一水平附近,但过去十年 T-Mobile 的改善更为持续、也更为显著。
Its operating profit margin has nearly tripled over the past decade, rising from about 7% in 2017 to 21.8% over the past twelve months. It is true that its competitors, including AT&T and Verizon, are achieving operating profit margins around these levels, but T-Mobile's improvement has been more consistent and pronounced over the past decade.
这些电信公司也是全球负债最重的公司之一,但 T-Mobile 的债务少于 Verizon 和 AT&T。
These telecom companies are also among the most indebted in the world, but T-Mobile has less debt than Verizon and AT&T.
T-Mobile 的长期债务总额约为1140亿美元,而这三家电信公司的巨额债务正是我认为应对竞争会很困难的原因之一。
T-Mobile boasts around $114 billion in total long-term debt, and this large amount of debt among the three telecom companies is one of the reasons why I think dealing with competition will be difficult.
在应对来自 SpaceX 日益增长的威胁时,它们没有多少回旋余地,而 SpaceX 从投资者那里融资会更容易。
They do not have much room to maneuver in responding to the growing threats from SpaceX, which will find it easier to raise capital from investors.
SpaceX 在其投资者群体中建立的信任,好于 Verizon、AT&T 和 T-Mobile 在各自股东群体中建立的信任,因此 SpaceX 的资本成本可能更低,尽管它是一项风险更高、根基尚浅、仍在亏损的业务,按理说它的资本成本应该高得多。
The trust that SpaceX has built among its investor base is better than the trust that Verizon, AT&T, and T-Mobile have built with their shareholder bases, so the cost of capital may be lower for SpaceX, even though it is a riskier, less established business that is still losing money, and logically, its cost of capital should be much higher.
因此,鉴于这一日益增长的威胁,T-Mobile 的股价和估值一直在下降,尤其是估值。从市盈率来看,它目前的市盈率为11.16,这是近年来按这一估值指标计算的最低水平。
Therefore, in view of that growing threat, T-Mobile's stock price and valuation have been declining, especially the valuation. When I look at it based on the price-to-earnings ratio, it is trading at 11.16, which is the lowest level it has traded at according to this valuation metric in recent years.
此外,与公司的长期每股收益预期相比,其前瞻市盈率低于长期每股收益增长预期。这是市盈率相对盈利增长比率(PEG)的一种形式,当该比率小于1时,通常被认为对买入某只股票而言是有吸引力的估值。就本例而言,这确实看起来像是有吸引力的估值。
In addition, when compared to the company's long-term earnings per share estimates, it is trading at a lower forward price-to-earnings ratio than long-term earnings per share growth estimates.
This is a version of the price-to-earnings-to-growth (PEG) ratio, which, when it is less than one, is generally considered an attractive valuation for buying a particular stock.
In this case, it certainly seems like an attractive valuation.
我也喜欢用现金流折现模型来看估值,对于 T-Mobile,我今天更新了这个模型,计算出该股票的合理价值为222美元。当前市场价格是159。所以,即使从我的现金流折现模型来看,T-Mobile 股票似乎也被低估了。
I also like to look at the valuation using the discounted cash flow model, and for T-Mobile, I updated this model today, and calculated a fair value for the stock at $222. The current market price is 159.
So, even from the perspective of my discounted cash flow model, T-Mobile stock appears to be undervalued.
因此,全年我都将 T-Mobile 股票评为买入机会,但我对这一买入评级的信心水平较低。今天,在评估了公司最新业绩和长期表现、将其与我对其每股收益的预期进行比较,并考虑到来自 SpaceX 日益增长的威胁之后,这只股票如今看起来是更好的机会。
Therefore, T-Mobile stock was rated as a buy opportunity by me throughout the year, but I had a low level of confidence in that buy rating. Today, after assessing the company’s latest results and long-term performance, comparing them to my estimates of what I believe it will achieve in earnings per share, and taking into account the growing threat from SpaceX, the stock looks like a better opportunity today.
所以,我现在对 T-Mobile 的信心比上次评估该公司时更强,上次评估是在几个月前。于是我把信心水平上调至中等,我是在2026年11月4日这样做的。
So, I am now more confident in T-Mobile than I was the last time I evaluated the company, which was a few months ago. So, I raised my confidence level to a medium level, and I did so on November 4, 2026.
这个频道对 $TMUS 的历次判断
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 在这只股票上共 2 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。