看空 Toll Brothers：预计到 1 月 15 日期权到期时将进一步下跌至 115 美元或更低，理由是利率高企、美联储偏鹰、收益率曲线可能倒挂、住房可负担性差以及买家罢买；若跌破 130 美元将触发急跌。
逐段跳播
是Toll Brothers。你目前怎么看住房板块和建筑公司？情况既不令人安心，也不乐观。这一点毫无疑问。这根本不是一个令人舒服的局面。我的意思是，显然Toll Brothers并不面向完全的初次购房者，但你知道，住房可负担性现在显然是个问题。
利率显然更高了。我想每个人都清楚这一点。我们有一个采取鹰派立场的美联储。有一件事没有被考虑进去，而我实际上认为我们可能会看到收益率曲线倒挂，这当然可以说预示着衰退。如你所知，就房屋建筑商而言，围绕利率的因素并不乐观。
因此，你看，毫无疑问Toll Brothers在这里确实经历着某种下跌。在这种情况下，我会顺应这一趋势。但我会给这笔交易时间上的优势。我会继续持有这笔交易，直到1月15日期权到期。
我这样做是因为我相信市场还会继续有所恶化。我认为至少暂时美联储仍将保持鹰派立场。但是，令人意外的是，我会构建一个相当大的价差，这需要相当大的波动。所以，在1月15日期权到期日，我会买入125的看跌期权。
我再说一遍，买入125的看跌期权，并卖出115的看跌期权。这笔交易是以2.60美元的折价建立的。所以，这是一次博取260美元的尝试。你冒着整整260美元的风险，为了什么呢？你看到的是10美元的价差，但你需要标的股票从现在到1月期权到期之间的某个时点跌到115或更低。
好。目前我们在135.67。当然，我们即将迎来Toll Brothers的财报发布事件，这也不是什么秘密。我的意思是，单看昨天的住房数据，KG，我们看到了笼罩这个市场的极度停滞。
你在“Toll Brothers”的技术分析中看到了什么？
It's Toll Brothers . How do you view the housing sector and construction companies at the moment? The situation is neither comfortable nor promising. There is no doubt about this.
It is simply not a comfortable situation. I mean, obviously Toll Brothers doesn't offer housing for complete beginners, but you know, housing affordability is clearly a problem right now.
Interest rates are obviously higher. I think everyone is aware of that. We have a Federal Reserve that is taking a hawkish stance. The one thing that is not being taken into account, and I actually think we may see an inversion of the yield curve, which would of course indicate a recession, so to speak.
As you know, the factors surrounding interest rates are not pleasant when it comes to home builders. For this reason, look, there is no doubt that Toll Brothers is indeed experiencing some kind of decline here.
I would join this trend in this case. But I will give this deal the advantage of time. I will continue with the deal until the options expire on January 15. I do this because I believe the market will continue to deteriorate somewhat.
I think there will remain a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve at least for the time being . But, surprisingly, I will build up a fairly large price differential , which requires a substantial move.
So, on the expiry date of the options on January 15, I will buy put options at 125. I repeat, buy put options at 125, and sell put options at 115 for it. This deal was made for a discount of $2.60.
So, it's an attempt for $260. You're risking a full $260 for what, basically? You are looking at a $10 price difference, but you need the underlying stock to reach $ 115 or lower at some point between now and the January expiry of the options.
Good. Currently, we are at 135.67. Of course, we have an upcoming earnings announcement event for Toll Brothers, and that's no secret. I mean, just by looking at yesterday's housing data, KG, we saw the extreme stagnation that is gripping this market.
What do you see in the technical analysis of "Toll Brothers"?
是的，有几点。我们目前看到价格在盘整，我们实际上正试图把20日移动平均线当作阻力区来利用。我们已经越过了它，至少今天是这样。看看这个水平能否守住。我们这里有一条由高点构成的次级趋势或次级趋势线，它也在某种程度上与成交量控制点吻合，该控制点位于136到137美元左右。
我们姑且这么假设。现在，难办的地方在这里。回顾去年，这只股票在回升之前，没有连续超过四个交易日跌破130。因此，Don显然在这里迈出了大胆的一步，认为这只股票会继续暴跌。他想彻底清掉这只股票。
我回头去看日线图，看到130到125这个水平是人们通常会进场的买入区。现在，如果我们看相对强弱指数（RSI），它其实没告诉我们太多。我们知道它形成更高或更低的峰值，但它在短期内形成更高的低点，这其实是好事。
MACD指标处于看涨形态，仍在零线下方，但12期指数移动平均线位于26期指数移动平均线之上。这意味着短期价格动能正在略微走高。如果我们转到周线图，就不太好看了。这只股票实际上自2024年11月以来一直在盘整区间内交易。
因此，你越来越接近该区间的下端，但这里的成交量分布基本上显示136这个水平是枢轴点。在这里我们尽量容纳市场上尽可能多的卖方。如果我们跌破并跌到127左右，我们会发现买家在那个水平进场了。
如果我们向上走，你看到的是167这个水平。相对强弱指数（RSI）正在录得更低的高点，这稍微更倾向于下跌。MACD指标处于看跌形态，12期指数移动平均线位于26期之下，也位于零线之下。
这也是一个看跌指标。但话说回来，在过去一年里，这只股票没有跌破130并连续超过四个交易日保持在下方。这就是我们看到的短期趋势。
Yes, there are a few things. We are witnessing price consolidation at this time, and we are actually trying to take advantage of the 20-day moving average as a resistance zone.
We have already surpassed it, at least for today. Let 's see if this level will hold. We have a secondary trend or secondary trend line of peaks here, which also somewhat aligns with the volume control point, which is located at around $136 to $137.
Let's assume that. Now, here's the hard part. Looking back at last year, the stock did not trade below 130 for more than four consecutive trading sessions before it recovered. Therefore, Don is clearly taking a bold step here and believes the stock will continue to collapse.
He is looking to completely liquidate this stock. I go back and look at the daily chart and see that the 130 to 125 level was a buying zone that people usually enter. Now, if we look at the Relative Strength Index (RSI ), it doesn't really tell us much.
We know it makes higher or lower peaks, but it makes higher lows in the short term, and that's actually a good thing. The MACD indicator is in a bullish formation, still below the zero line, but the 12-period exponential moving average is above the 26-period exponential moving average.
This means that short-term price momentum is moving slightly higher. If we move to the weekly chart, it's not really good to look at. This stock has actually been trading in a consolidation range since November 2024.
Consequently, you are getting closer and closer to the lower end of that range, but the trading volume profile here essentially shows that the 136 level was the pivot point. Here we try to accommodate as many of the sellers present in the market as possible.
If we break down and reach around 127, we find that buyers have stepped in at that level. If we move upwards, you are looking at the 167 level . The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is recording lower highs, and this is slightly more prone to decline .
The MACD indicator is in a bearish pattern, the 12-period exponential moving average is below 26 and also below the zero line. This is also a bearish indicator . But again, the stock did not trade below 130 and remain below it for more than four sessions during the past year. This is the short- term trend we have seen.
好，Don。我想给你一个回应的机会，因为“KG”在看不同的水平，并且至少从技术角度看，并不认为我们会跌破130。你对此怎么说？
Okay, Don. I want to give you a chance to respond here because "KG" is looking at different levels and does not expect, at least from a technical perspective, that we will fall below 130 . What do you say to that?
是的，我喜欢它。Kevin 在这一点上和我略有分歧。所以在这个具体情况下，说实话我不太看技术层面的东西。我看的是图表之外的东西。看看现在的房地产统计数据。回顾之前的数据，房地产市场从未出现过像现在这样买家集体观望的情况。
毫无疑问，高利率环境以及收益率曲线可能倒挂，对这类住宅建筑商来说将是一段艰难时期。我其实认同130这个位置。但我并不只是想等它突破130关口，我是在等这个位置成为引发大幅下跌的主要催化剂。
再说一次，我喜欢这个。不过，现有数据并不好。但正因如此，我更多依据经济基本面而不是技术分析来交易。数据不好，但我给自己留到1月15日期权到期日，看看情况如何发展。
Yes, you know? I liked it. Kevin disagrees with me slightly here. So, in this particular case, I honestly look much less at some of the technical aspects. I'm looking, you know, outside the graph.
Look at some real estate statistics right now. As you know, looking back at previous data, we have never seen buyers on strike as we are seeing now in the real estate market. There is no doubt that the high interest rate environment, and the potential for an inverted yield curve, will be a difficult time for these home builders.
I actually agree about the 130 level. But I'm not just looking to break the 130 barrier, I'm waiting for this level to be the main catalyst that causes a sharp drop. And again , I like this.
However, the available data is not good. But that's why I trade based on economic fundamentals more than on technical analysis. The data isn't good, but I'm giving myself until the options expiry date on January 15th to see how things go .