说话者做多 TSLA；认为多年持有风险低、上行空间大。
逐段跳播
我们今天上涨了6.66%，接近105,7.77美元。而疯狂的是，我们现在处于该股自6月以来的最高水平。这会不会是一次突破？因为我总是试图在脑子里把那些关联的线索拼凑起来。就像，好吧，解锁每3到4周就发生一次。
我们一直很难突破155那个水平。我们现在已经高出那个水平三美元了。那通常，我认为，就是内部人士挂出卖单、套现一些改善生活的钱的地方，因为我总是看到价格涨到那个水平，然后就会发生抛售。但他们不会在140卖出。所以看着挺有意思的。
We are up 6.66% today, nearly $105,7.77. And what's crazy about that, we are at the highest level for the stock since June. Is could this be a breakout? Because I'm trying to always put together the connective tissue in my brain.
It's like, okay, unlocks are happening every 3 to 4 weeks. We've had a hard time breaking above that kind of 155 level. We are above that now by three bucks. That's typically is I think where the insiders had sell orders to take some lifestyle chips because I always saw the price going up to that level and then sales would happen.
Uh but they don't sell at 140. Uh so it's it's interesting to see.
你怎么看今天的股价？看起来趋势正在突破。是的，感觉上，而且我并不是什么技术派交易员之类的。所以，你知道，听听就好，别太当真，但在我看来，你面对的是大约两万亿、差不多两万亿的估值，就在150这个整数关口附近。
而且我认为有很多人，你知道，那些持有很久的人当中会有一些分散配置发生。所以也许这就是其中一部分原因。会有一些，你知道，基本上就是获利了结，我预计会有，但很明显在盘整，而且看起来正朝着向上的方向走。
What do you think of the uh stock price today? Looks like the trend is breaking out. Yeah, it feel it feels like and I'm not like a uh technical uh trader or anything like that.
So, you know, take it with a grain of salt, but what you what it feels like to me is that you're dealing with um you know, this two trillion roughly two trillion valuation kind of number around that 150 mark and a round number.
And I think there's a lot of people that have you know there's going to be some diversification that takes place with some of the folks who have been sitting for a long time. So maybe that's part of this.
There's some, you know, uh, some, you know, just basically profit taking, I would expect, but there's clear consolidation and it seems like it's headed in the up upwards direction.
我是非常长期持有的。我尽量不按月来思考。我尽量按年来思考，因为我从12岁开始投资，一路下来就发现，你知道，20多年的投资经历，作为一个散户投资者，我很清楚地学到了一点，就是我在短期的事情上就是不行。
所以，我需要想得更大一点。那才是我更擅长的地方。
I'm very long. I don't really try not to think in the in terms of months. I try and think in terms of years because I've just found over my the course of investing since I was 12.
So, you know, 20 plus years of investing, you know, as a kind of retail investor, I've learned one thing very well, which is I'm just not good at short-term stuff. So, I need to I need to think a little bit bigger. That's where I'm better.
嗯，它下跌的时候我就在做，就是你在这里看到的，或者你图表上看到的那个位置。我当时就在做。所以，我也有一些个人账户，你知道，个人的，比如退休账户和Roth，我觉得它非常适合放在Roth里，对吧？
长期持有、巨大上涨空间的那种机会。所以我也在往那里定投。嗯，所以这就是我思考的方式。但你知道，我已经有一个相当大的仓位了。
Well, I was doing it when it went down that where you see here or you know on your chart. I was doing that. So, I have like some personal accounts as well that I've got that were you know personal like retirement accounts and Roth and I think it's like a perfect fit for a Roth, right?
long-term hold and big upside kind of opportunity. So I was DCAing into that as well. Um so that's the way I think about it. But you know I have a pretty large position already.
我非常，这是那种很奇怪的公司之一。我觉得它奇怪在于，它符合我喜欢和热爱的东西，我对它非常有热情。但与此同时，我认为这一只的风险回报机会非常好，就因为它有，你知道，巨大的竞争壁垒和很大的上涨空间。
所以我可能和大多数人不一样，你知道，他们也许对它没那么放心。他们没亏那么多。所以，也许从今天的定价涨到，你知道，10万亿或以上，风险感觉更高。但嗯，对我来说，考虑到我关注它这么久、看到他们这些年的所作所为之类的事情，感觉风险相当低。
I am like very this is one of these weird companies. I think it's weird in the sense that I it fits what I like and what I love and I'm very passionate about it. But at the same time, I think the riskreward opportunity is is very good on this one just because it's, you know, the huge competitive mode and lots of upside.
So, I may be different than most where, you know, they're maybe not as comfortable with it. They haven't lost it as much. So, maybe the risk feels higher um as far as going from where it's priced today to going up um you know, to 10 trillion or above.
But um for me it feels like a pretty low risk given how much I've watched it for so long and seen what they've done over the years and that kind of stuff.
对价格预测模型影响最大的，当然就是Elon Web Services业务，也就是算力，我们对算力以及整个AI安全笑话和眼下发生的一切已经了解了非常多。哦，这些约束还会继续。代币的需求不会，不会有任何放缓。
the big impact on the price prediction models are of course the Elon Web Services business the compute and we've learned an awful lot about compute and the whole AI safety joke and everything that's going on right now we Oh, the constraints are going to continue.
There's there's no there's going to be no slowdown in demand for tokens.
但我说过，嗯，这些也是留了余地的。我不会把那些东西公开出去，因为我不想一年后有人回来跟我说，哦，你说过会是527。再说，2028年，这算是三年之后，嗯，从当前算起是3.61倍。
But I said uh and these are sandbag too. I don't put things out in public that are because I don't want people come back to me in a year's time and say, "Oh, you said it would be 527."
And again, 2028, this is call it three years away uh 3.61x from here.
所以那就是，嗯，命中注定的机缘巧合。所以那是第一个，然后我2030年的数字变得很大，902。最大的一块是Elon Web Services，然后是LLM和Macro hard，也就是所有那些白领工作的自动化，Starlink、Starlink直连手机、X支付、X收入启动，还有NASA。
So that's uh destiny serendipity. So that's the first one and then my 2030 goes big 902. The biggest chunk was Elon Web Services and then the LLM and Macro hard, which is the automation of all that white collar work, Starlink, Starlink direct to Cell, X payments, X revenue launch, and NASA.
我认为特斯拉这边有些人可能已经认定SpaceX的增长大部分已经被兑现了，因为它最近发生得太快了，但实际上，未来几年你在AI算力和Starlink这边还能看到很多增长。所以我认为在SpaceX这边，你会看到有人说，嘿，我们还有更多增长。而特斯拉这边也在说，我们还有更多增长。
I think some people on the Tesla side have maybe figured that SpaceX has already captured most of its growth because it happened so fast recently, but realistically you're looking at a lot from the AI compute and the and the Starlink side over the next few years.
So I think on the SpaceX side, you get people that are saying, "Hey, we have more growth." And the Tesla side is saying we have more growth.
这个频道对 $TSLA 的历次判断
InvestAnswers 在这只股票上共 21 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。