特斯拉的估值被认为荒谬；其成功归因于马斯克的故事讲述；在 200 美元峰值买入的投资者亏损了。
逐段跳播
我在 2017 年听到了所有这些议论，关于特斯拉的激烈讨论，当时有人说它会亏损数十亿美元、破产，无法偿还欠债券持有人的债务。
I heard all this talk in 2017, heated discussions about Tesla, where it was said that it would lose billions of dollars, go bankrupt, and not be able to repay its debts to bondholders.
但最终，实际发生的是，只要股东们保持信任和信心，埃隆·马斯克就能够两三次卖出他的股票，从而结束了围绕他无力偿还债务的争议。
But in the end, what actually happened was that as long as the shareholders maintained their trust and faith, Elon Musk was able to sell his shares two or three times, thus ending the controversy surrounding his inability to repay his debts.
而现在，他会对我说什么？现在，我不仅能还清债务，还能在世界各地再建两座巨型工厂。埃隆·马斯克，特斯拉成功的原因，也是 SpaceX 失败的原因，其价值立即减半，因为它的股价跌到了 150 美元。
没关系，它已经恢复了，但很多人……在市场顶部进场。他们在 200 美元进场。他们在 100 美元买卖。
And now, what will he say to me? Now, I can not only pay off my debts, but I can also build two more huge factories around the world. Elon Musk, the reason for Tesla's success, and the reason for SpaceX's failure, whose value was immediately halved, is that its stock price dropped to $150.
It's okay, it has recovered, but a lot of...people got in at the peak of the market. They entered at $200. They bought and sold at $100.
这正是我所担心的，而它恰恰发生了，因为在我看来这很荒谬。但它为什么成功？因为埃隆是一位娴熟的故事讲述者，能够讲出一个故事，而人们相信它。我认为特斯拉的估值很荒谬。
This is what I was worried about, and it is exactly what happened, because it was ridiculous in my opinion. But why does it succeed? Because Elon is a skilled storyteller, able to tell a story, and people believe it. I think Tesla's valuation is ridiculous.
现在，我可以把这一点与我对特斯拉自动驾驶汽车的看法分开，我的看法是：这家伙已经承诺这件事十多年了，一再推迟，然后我们突然发现：“哦，今年不会实现了。”或者“它会实现，但我们需要一名助手坐在前排座位上。”
Now, I can separate this from my opinion on Tesla's self-driving car, which is that this guy has been promising this for over a decade, keeps postponing it, and then suddenly we discover: "Oh, it's not going to happen this year."
Or "It will happen, but we'll need an assistant to sit in the front seat."
这个频道对 $TSLA 的历次判断
The Compound 在这只股票上共 2 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。